The government’s fiscal policy since the pandemic began has prioritised growth and fiscal transparency over fiscal consolidation. The Budget 2022 presented by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman just did that. However, macro risks of executing the budget proposals remain a key concern among investors. The Union Budget 2022 indicated not only is the government likely to miss the FY22 fiscal deficit target but the target for FY23 is also pegged at a relatively high 6.4% of GDP. The difference is largely on account of a massive capex push and divestment estimates. This underlines the government's resolve to aid a cycle of investment with public capex taking the lead and crowding in private investment. But will finance minister’s budget proposals fall short of enough Philip to drive a pandemic-induced slump in economy. Will it take markets into a tailspin? And does it increase risk of a sovereign downgrade of India? To discuss those, Mint's Nasrin Sultana is joined by Arvind Chari, CIO, Quantum Advisors.

All Things Markets

Will budget 2022 drive economy out of pandemic slump?

While 2021 was all about growth and recovery, the focus of central bankers across the world has shifted towards inflation and monetary policy normalization given the context of US Fed Tapering and potential hardening of interest rates in 2022. So, will these worries amid rising Omicron variant of covid cases derail equities rally going ahead. To discuss that I am in conversation with Unmesh Kulkarni – Managing Director Senior Advisor, Julius Baer India.

What are big risks that may derail markets rally in 2022?

Indian equities are ending 2021 with over 20% gains outperforming other peers in emerging markets. Despite the brutal second wave of covid and rising inflation, markets hit record highs multiple times during the year led by factors such as decline in covid cases in the second half of the year, a significant pickup in the pace of vaccination, and the consequent sharp recovery in economic activity. But now, as we head into 2022, the world’s major central banks have started prioritizing inflation control over growth acceleration. So, will liquidity tapering by global central banks in 2022 puncture the super rally in markets? What are the big market trends to watch out in 2022? What are the key risks? To discuss that, Mint's Nasrin Sultana is joined by Dhananjay Sinha, MD & Chief – Strategist, JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd

Which way will stock markets swing in 2022?

The real estate sector made a smart recovery despite the pandemic in 2021 with segments like residential outperforming. After facing a series of structural reforms like demonetisation, GST and RERA during the last decade, the pandemic was another blow for the real estate sector. But the sector is gradually emerging. The disruption caused by the pandemic is slowing settling. So, what will be the big trends in the real estate sector in 2022? Will home prices correct in 2022? To discuss that I am in conversation with Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, Knight Frank India

Will home prices correct in 2022?

Markets have entered into an extremely volatile phase. The Nifty ended its six-month winning streak in November, ending 4% lower, pulling back 8% from the record highs of October. Much of the market anxiety is led by global factors but a big fundraise in the primary market also had put some pressure on liquidity. While economic activities are gradually picking up, the threat of a new covid 19 variant Omicron has emerged. So amid these mixed signals and volatility, which way will markets swing. To discuss that and more, I am in conversation with Jitendra Arora, Equity Fund Manager, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance.

As volatility grips markets which way will stocks swing?

As Indian markets have seen a robust increase in trading volume with equities hitting record high multiple times post-pandemic, brokerage firms have made great business. Bank-brokerages reported a strong uptick in earnings in the last fiscal but The retail broking segment has seen a significant disruption in the last few years due to the growing prominence of discount brokerages. So, how have competitively priced offerings of discount brokers and the no-frill basic accounts and services resulted in the realignment of the pricing strategy across the industry. To discuss that I am in conversation with Samriddhi Chowdhary, Vice President & Sector Head, ICRA.

How discount brokerages disrupted pricing strategy

Do you know modern technology and mathematical computations can make trading decision for profit by breaking down very complex data and eliminating the emotional decision-making that can occur during trading. That’s called Quantitative trading or quant strategy of trading. Quantitative traders take a trading technique and create a model of it using mathematics, and then they develop a computer program that applies the model to historical market data. The model is then backtested and optimized. Quantitative trading algorithms are customized to evaluate different parameters related to a stock. Typically, financial institutions and hedge funds use quant strategies. As retail investors are rising in Indian markets, quantitative trading is also catching up. But it’s not all that simple, isn’t it. To simplify quantitative strategies, Mint’s Nasrin Sultana speaks to Rishi Kohli, MD and CIO for Quant Strategies at Avendus Capital Public Markets Alternate strategies.

How to apply quant strategies in market trading?

Post pandemic, re-rating of real estate stocks has surprised markets as Nifty Realty index has outperformed the midcaps by more than 60% in the past year. The pandemic played a catalyst in accelerating market share gains into the hands of organised real estate players. Boosted by economic recovery and robust stock market wealth creation, the top eight cities in India are seeing a strong growth momentum in real estate sector. So, how did the festive season pane out for real estate companies? What are the big investment trends in the sector? Tune in now!

Should you invest in realty stocks after stellar rally?

Mint and HT Smartcast wish all our listeners a happy Diwali and a prosperous New Year. Markets have ended the year Samvat 2077 with best gains in 13 years despite covid led lockdowns and uncertainties which had deterred economic growth. Riding on abundant liquidity, investors made nearly 40% profit in equities this year, the best returns compared to other asset classes. In comparison, mid and smallcaps have done exceedingly well in Samvat 2077. BSE Midcap surged 61% while BSE SmallCap jumped 79% in the year. So, how does Samvat 2078 look for markets? Which themes are likely to play out in the year? To discuss that Mint’s Nasrin Sultana is joined by Yogesh Patil, head of equities, LIC Mutual Funds.

Markets top bets post Diwali in Samvat 2078

Global analysts are raising red flags on India’s equity performance. They are gradually becoming uncomfortable about steep valuations and hence are cautious about the allocation of funds despite India outperforming global peers in 2021 so far. Recently, a BofA survey showed global fund managers are no longer bullish on emerging markets and want to cut exposure in EMs in the next 12 months as China fears weighed on sentiment. So, are Indian markets ahead of fundamentals? How will it impact liquidity? Will earnings justify the steep valuations? To discuss that Mint’s Nasrin Sultana is in conversation with Unmesh  Sharma, head of institutional equities, HDFC Securities

Is time to be cautious on Indian markets as valuations rise?

Investors are eagerly watching company results to see whether earnings growth justifies share-price gains during the sizzling stock-market rally this year. Companies are facing rising investor expectations going into the second-quarter earnings season as the Indian markets have outperformed global peers, with valuations near historic highs. However, the market faces possible headwinds from rising commodity and energy prices, global supply-side disruption, and potentially unfavourable bond-equity yield dynamics. So, how critical are Q2 earnings for markets as liquidity normalisation both by the US Fed and RBI may start to set in soon. To understand that, Mint’s Nasrin Sultana is in conversation with Ajay Tyagi, Head of Equity, UTI AMC.

How critical are Q2 earnings as liquidity normalisation set to start

In what is being perceived as a tapering signal, the RBI suspended the bond purchase programme, G-Sec Acquisition Program (G-SAP), after Rs 2.37 trillion purchases in first half of FY22. The monetary policy committee (MPC) kept its policy rates and accommodative stance unchanged but did not announce any new set of liquidity-enhancing measures for the first time since the onset of the covid-19 pandemic. With surplus liquidity of above $120bn sloshing around in the system, the RBI also announced a roadmap to expand and extend the VRRR operations. So, how will these measures by RBI impact bond markets and equities? To understand that, Mint’s Nasrin Sultana is in conversation with Arvind Chari, CIO, Quantum Advisors.

How will RBI monetary policy impact equities and bonds?

Riding widespread optimism, Indian markets have been scaling fresh record highs as the Sensex hit 60000. Indian markets have been rising in most days of September despite periodic nervousness around China’s Evergrande debt defaults cascading to a global crisis and US Federal Reserve rate tapering decision. However, investors are concerned. Rising inflation risk and withdrawal of ultra-easy monetary policy by global central banks, mainly by the US Federal Reserve, may trigger a sharp rise in bond yields which can cause risk assets to correct sharply. Steep valuation concerns have also been looming large. So, how long will this super rally in Indian markets last? To understand that, Mint's Nasrin Sultana is joined by Vinit Sambre, head-equities, DSP Investment Managers.

Will super rally in Indian markets last long?

What if I tell you: Shell companies with no commercial operations are formed to raise capital through an IPO for acquiring an existing company. What if I also tell you that even retail investors can invest in these blank cheque companies. Well, I am talking about Special Purpose Acquisition Company shortly called as SPAC. SPACs have been around in the US for a very long time but SPAC deals in India are still at a nascent stage becoming popular recently mostly due to abundant dry powder post covid. However, it does sound risky isn’t it? The complexity of SPAC deals has challenges. To understand more about these blank cheque companies and regulatory framework around it, Mint's Nasrin Sultana is joined by Vikas Bagaria, partner Deloitte India.

What are blank cheque companies?

As stock markets beat the pandemic blues, investor wealth ballooned in a period when most businesses were struggling due to challenges posed by lockdowns amid loss of income. With limited options to spend due to no travel and stay-at-home guidelines, a gush of fresh money found its way to stock markets in the last one and half years. Many rode on the tailcoats of investors who were established and known for making a fortune by investing in stock markets. High net-worth individuals (HNIs) held a combined Rs 4.7 trillion in NSE firms as of June-end, a jump of 19.5% in a quarter. So, what are the big trends in HNIs and ultra-HNI investment in India post-pandemic? To discuss that Mint's Nasrin Sultana speak to Rajesh Cheruvu, CIO, Validus Wealth.

Where are the ultra-rich investing post pandemic?

This weekly show covers an in-depth conversation with observers, analysts and experts decoding the movements in the stock markets. This is a livemint production, brought to you by HT smartcast.

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All Things Markets

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