This is an early cut of the Evergrande podcast episode coming out next week on Fed Watch. I discuss the proper context in which to view Evergrande, and give details on what I see going on over there in China. Full notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e233

Bitcoin & Markets

Evergrande The Deteriorating Situation in China - E223

In this episode I read through some of the ECB's Annual Report and comment on the current state of the Euro, as well as their efforts to create a digital Euro. This is applicable to bitcoin because the ECB is a major incumbent in the current system, and is trying to launch a bitcoin competitor, which they call a Central Bank Digital Currency. Full show notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e232

Present and Future of the Euro, ECB Annual Report Breakdown - E232

Hopefully this episode helps you understand the monetary system and some of the arguments for a future outlook that is deflationary. Questions were sent in by long time supporter Rob. We covered the first three in this Part 1 and then tackle the last two here in Part 2, along with a general discussion on CPI and asset price inflation. I finish by explaining why bitcoin doesn't need hyperinflation or even inflation to get adopted. Full show notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e231

Q&A on Deflation & Bitcoin: Part 2 - E231

We cover 3 Q's in Part 1, about technological deflation, QE, and sources of deflation. Part 2 includes 2 more questions and general deflationary arguments. More at : https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e230

Q&A on Deflation: Part 1 - E230

This episode focuses on answering the criticism present in the USM thesis from a bitcoin perspective. I introduce the listener to USM and economic engines. Then I dive into issuance and fees, and some of the fallacies around that. Next, we look at Proof of Work (mining) versus Proof of Stake (what ethereum wants to go to). Lastly, is a quick discussion on EIP 1559, the proposal in Ethereum to burn transaction fees as a way to deflate supply. https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e229

Economic Fallacies of Ethereum as Ultra Sound Money - E229

 Full show notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e228 I listen to and react to an interview Pompliano did with "the most famous digital artist in the world," Beeple, who recent sold a JPG for $69 million. Then I go through what fungibility is and why it applies to bitcoin. Pomp and Beeple https://youtu.be/rT13eQOf6ho Fungibility of Bitcoin - BTCM Research blog   

NFTs and Bitcoin Fungibility - E228

 I quote heavily from Lyn and the BIS in this episode, drilling down the essense of the problem with the premise of deficits being the basis for foreign reserves of the dollar. Short answer, they aren't. There's very little evidence that deficits matter to foreign reserves at all, or that they play more than a very small role. The single most important source of foreign reserves is the eurodollar market. If we clear our minds of the role of deficits, then what is the argument for the unsustainability of the USD system? Well, it boils down to the end of a gigantic global credit bubble enabled by the Pax Americana. Hope this helps clarify. Stay tuned for the next episode on NFTs and fungibility. It will be a satisfying episode. A Links The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System - Lyn Alden Fraying with my highlights Why Trade Deficits Matter - Lyn Alden BIS Report - Triffin: Dilemma or Myth? BIS Report with my highlights 

Triffin Dilemma: Quick Part 2 - E227

Website: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e226/ Hopefully this episode helps you understand the arguments people often make and if they hold water next time the invoke the Triffin Dilemma. My interest in the Triffin Dilemma started several months ago. Little did I know then that I was trying to debunk an ahistorical extension of the original Triffin argument. I initially came to this conclusion: The problem with using Triffin in an argument about a dollar collapse is 1) it's ahistorical and 2) there doesn't need to be a capital account deficit in the US and surpluses in other countries for them to acquire dollar reserves. In this episode, I try to provide you with a basic understanding of the original Triffin Dilemma from Robert Triffin in 1958, and of why the modern extensions of this famous prediction are poor facsimiles. I provide tons of useful links below as part of the show notes. Balance of Payments It all comes down to the Balance of Payments for a country which issues the global reserve currency. The two main parts of the BoP are the current account and the capital account (including the financial account which we don't talk about). These two halves of the BoP must balance. The current account consists main of a balance of trade. Is the country running a trade surplus or a trade deficit. Other factors are things like foreign aid which we don't have to consider because it's very small compared to the trade balance. The capital account consists of flow of assets and liabilities for the country as a whole. When a foreigner buys a US asset (or a dollar denominated asset) this is a positive input for the capital account. In the reverse, when a US person or entity buys an asset in a foreign country it is a negative input for the capital account. Remember, the current account must be offset by the capital account. Therefore, if the US has a trade deficit of say $500 billion, they must have a capital account surplus of $500 billion. Triffin and Trade Surpluses When Triffin was writing the original Triffin Dilemma, in the 50's and 60's, the US ran massive trade surpluses. This means the capital account was negative - the US was losing assets abroad, or more accurately gaining liabilities abroad. Triffin was concerned that when the dollar denominated value of foreign liabilities surpassed that of the US's gold stock which backed the dollar at the time, there would be a run on the gold stock by those foreigners. They would sell their dollar denominated assets and take delivery of the gold, portending the doom of the US dollar peg. Current Account and Fiscal Triffin The US dollar did end up going off the gold standard in 1971, but not for the reasons Triffin predicted. Despite being accidently right, this form of argument became very popular in economics. Today, we can see two main extensions to the Triffin Dilemma, "current account Triffin" which is exactly the opposite of the original theory, and "fiscal Triffin" which is about global demand for US debt to cause the US to run unsustainable fiscal deficits. The current account Triffin is the most used by inflationists to support their dollar bear views, and, well, it's totally false. It reverses cause and effect, and lacks a clear systemic risk. The fiscal Triffin is more sound, but it is also false. It fails to consider other forms of safe assets like Mortgage Backed Securities and other derivatives. These are inferior to US Treasuries, but they are still widely used in their place (with an associated premium surely). Fiscal Triffin also lacks a clear systemic risk to the financial system, so is unlike the original. Hope this helps. A Links Wikipedia entry for Triffin Dilemma BIS Report - Triffin: Dilemma or Myth? BIS Report with my highlights via Hypothesis Understanding Capital And Financial Accounts In The Balance Of Payments - Investopedia FRED - Financial Accounts of the United States Khan Academy - Balance of payments: Capital account

Triffin Dilemma: Fact or Fiction? - E226

 Full show notes with images and links at https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e225 At first glance, the Chinese miracle has survived the virus recession and returned to growth. There is no lack of articles proclaiming the inevitable dominance of the communists, sitting atop the list of largest economies in the world. An idea that a rising CCP will want to stretch its new found legs and exercise influence over international trade and diplomacy, and that will bring them into direct conflict with the declining power, the US. This idea was titled the Thucydides Trap by Graham Allison in 2012. Since then it has been a widely used and debated point. While it makes sense that the West is stuck in a debt trap cycle making them destined to stagnation (unless bitcoin), it does not follow in the least that the CCP will continue to rise. The pattern we have seen in China over the last 20 years, is nearly identical to the pattern we saw in Japan from 1970-1990. In this episode I read the original work by Graham Allison and then a great article debunking this work of ahistorical fiction. Hopefully it helps you next time you hear someone using the Thucydides Trap idea to support a decline of the West. 

Thucydides Trap: China vs US, Real or Debunked? - E225

In this episode I listen and react to Doug French's recent Mises article "Central Banks Put Wind at Bitcoin's Back." It's a short but wide ranging discussion touching on the current bitcoin rally, market manipulation, money, and central bank caused inflation. This article has a misplaced bias saying bitcoin's rally is "FOMO", "misallocation", and "human error". Austrians are missing a huge opportunity to champion bitcoin as free market money. More show notes: bitcoinandmarkets.com/e224

Inflationist Dogma - E224

In this episode, I read through a blog post from ECB President Lagarde about central bank digital currencies. I tackle the strengths and weaknesses of her claims and draw conclusions about their plans, in particular the ECB. Website: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e223 The future of money – innovating while retaining trust https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/date/2020/html/ecb.in201130~ce64cb35a3.en.html 

Europe's Plan for a Central Bank Digital Currency - E223

In this episode, I react to a Simon Dixon interview where he spells out his thinking on the future of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and bitcoin. I respect Simon but couldn't disagree more with his CBDC prediction. We do however agree on bitcoin. Original Video: https://youtu.be/M7XtpvPUqls Website: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e222

Simon Dixon's Bretton Woods 2.0 Interview Reaction - E222

In this episode, I listen and react to Michael Saylor's appearance on Hedgeye. Their conversation is pretty straightforward. Michael is a buy and hold guy and is trying to convince a trader of the benefits of picking and sticking to an exponential investment versus trading in and out of a position for a few percentage point gain. Show notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e221 Follow: @AnselLindner and @btcmrkts Blog: BTCM Research https://btcm.co

Michael Saylor Interview on Hedgeye Reaction - E221

 Original video: https://youtu.be/qL2LfVRl3J0?t=315 Full show notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e220/ 5:15 - Introducing the problems faced by the USD system I agree there's problems, but not the things he lays out. I believe his arguments show he has not considered monetary convergence and has a relatively mainstream understanding of the current system. 9:50 - CBDC Raoul claims the CBDCs are a way to address the problems he has laid out. Again, I disagree that the problems are what he says, and I also disagree that CBDCs can do what he thinks. The three big problems he lays out: 16:25 - Cash, freedom, and an agreement of nations (Bretton Woods 2.0) 23:15 END 

Raoul Pal "Bitcoin Life Raft" and CBDCs - REACTION - E220

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Bitcoin & Markets

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