Jay and Derek are back to together on the podcast to go back and forth on current event.   Jamie Dimon thoughts on crypto COLO Adjustment Jay guest starring on Fox Mornings And Marie (well atleast on a panel discussion) Doing financial TV as a guest CPI latest numbers Container Shipping prices finally tick lower for the first time. Tech earnings releases How Tech companies perform before and after earnings releases     Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   ZEGA www.zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Jay Pestrichelli’s Book Buy and Hedge https://www.amazon.com/Buy-Hedge-Rules-Investing-Minyanville/dp/0132825244?&linkCode=ll1&tag=tradesurfer-20&linkId=46ffc6b807e0c7f3d2e66a32790241e2&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl

Broken Pie Chart

Talking Tech Earnings – Jamie Dimon on Bitcoin - Social Security COLA – Latest CPI Numbers – Container Shipping News

Derek Moore is back to discuss whether the Fed has any cover to not pull back on their monthly asset purchases. Plus, what is the employment situation? What about inflation and supply side supply chains? Are we nearing Stagflation? This and more on the program.   Fed Taper Fed Asset Purchases Inflation Container Shipping Supply Side Issues GDP Now failing Stagflation US Treasuries Close Above 1.6% Unemployment Labor Participation Rate   Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=4   Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx

Fed Taper | Unemployment | Inflation | GDP | Treasury Yields

Derek Moore is back to discuss political risk to markets and interest rates. What exactly is the budget reconciliation process? What is the debt ceiling and is there really a risk of default? What about the filibuster?   Debt Ceiling Budget Reconciliation Process Continuing Resolution Inflation Supply Chain Issues Container Shipping Issues Infrastructure Bill $3.2 Trillion Budget Bill Political Risk to Markets Inflation Risk Interest Rates reaction to debt ceiling US Bond Downgrades US Debt Default Treasury Secretary Yellen Default Risk Senate Filibuster   Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Budget Reconciliation rules https://budget.house.gov/publications/fact-sheet/budget-reconciliation-basics   History of US Debt Ceiling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_United_States_debt_ceiling

Political Risk – Debt Ceiling – Reconciliation - Budget

Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial is back to discuss key market themes including comparing September to other months. Guess Which month is the worst? Evergrande in China and what is going on with their bonds. The Fed Taper and interest rates. Economy and GDP growth slowing? Housing starts along trendline. Plus, myths about portfolio hedging.   Evergrande in China China’s Three Red Lines Debt Policy Evergrande bond prices and ratings are pricing in defaults Evergrande is not new. How long has price been telling investors there is an issue? The Fed likely to Taper and effects on markets and interest rates Stagflation? September is the worst month historically. Sell in May and go away a misnomer? Hedging myths Everything you think you know about hedging is wrong   Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   What is China’s 3 Red lines Policy https://www.ubs.com/global/en/asset-management/insights/china/2021/china-three-red-lines.html   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3o6QGgm   Everything You Think You Know About Hedging is Wrong article https://zegafinancial.com/blog/everything-you-think-you-know-about-hedging-is-wrong   Understanding Bonds Interest Rate Risk and TIPS Bonds Treasury Inflation Protected Securitieshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tips-inflation-protected-bonds-explained-interest-rate/id1432836154?i=1000535445537   Talking Inflation, All-Time Market Highs, Interest Rates, Covid, Housing, & More https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/talking-inflation-all-time-market-highs-interest-rates/id1432836154?i=1000533456019

Worst Month for Stocks – Evergrande – Inflation – The Fed Taper – Housing Starts - Hedging

Google web searches for the term Stagflation are spiking. More pundits are mentioning the S word. So what is Stagflation and what should be looking at to tell whether this is a real risk to the economy?   What is stagflation How to measure slowing growth How to find CPI inflation data Where to follow unemployment and wage growth Why the Fed would be put in a box during stagflation Stagflation causes including supply side issues Fiscal stimulus the wrong thing if its supply side     Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   TIPS Inflation Indexed Treasury Bonds https://open.spotify.com/episode/0wKePdiHHZ89B2hVajRb6C?si=_4JZCIQGS5iIwJDIKzMwyQ&dl_branch=1   Supply Side vs Demand Side Inflation https://open.spotify.com/episode/5iwBwhxdczXuFPPVuZ4tup

Stagflation Explained – Are We There Yet?

Marcel Benjamin is back on the show for another appearance to dig into the details around TIPS Bonds (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). How they work and why they are misunderstood by many. Plus, we discuss interest rate risk comparing high and low interest rate environments. Yup, even a little bond convexity primer! This was a great conversation that gives anyone a much greater depth of knowledge on an asset class that is a little more complicated.     T Bonds and Bills: lower interest rates, increased duration and sensitivity to changes in interest rates Examples of potential changes in market value (risk) when interest rates go up or down Its about looking at the series of cash flows What are TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) Bonds? How are TIPS Bonds designed to be adjusted for inflation based on the CPI? Size of the TIPS Bond market Primary risks include interest rate changes and deflation. Breakeven rates a view into market view on inflation 5-Year/ 5-Year Forward Rates Auctions going off at negative yield to maturity Comparing 2020 to 2008 break evens Bond Convexity primer Mortgage bonds unique convexity due to pre-pays by homeowners Duration over the years on the US AGG (Aggregate Bond) Index     Mentioned in this Episode:   Marcel Benjamin’s prior podcast appearance covering  High Yield Bonds https://brokenpiechart.libsyn.com/marcel-benjamin-high-yield-bonds-explained-what-are-zombie-companies   Information on State Street Global Advisors SPDR fixed income products https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/capabilities/simplify-investing-with-fixed-income-etfs/sdpr-fixed-income-etfs   Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&

TIPS Inflation Protected Bonds Explained – Interest Rate Risk & Duration – and More with Marcel Benjamin

Derek goes beyond the headlines to look under the hood of the labor market, jobs, and unemployment. Plus, he reviews the container shipping issues and port delays, semiconductors now delayed over 20 weeks. Finally, he discusses whether the government stimulus for a drop in demand might have miscalculated the recession. Instead, what if it’s a supply side issue where falling supply and rising prices is the regime? Both demand shock and supply shock are covered so you can talk to your friends about it.   Transitory or Non-Transitory case for inflation Container shipping issues with inflation The Fed interest rate tapers and rate decisions Supply Side Shock Demand Side Shock Wage growth Labor force participation rates Government transfer payments (social programs) growth     Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Follow Derek’s blog articles on the ZEGA site https://zegafinancial.com/blog   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Inflation-Markets at All-time Highs, Interest Rates, Covid and the Markets, Afghanistan https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/talking-inflation-all-time-market-highs-interest-rates/id1432836154?i=1000533456019   Sticky CPI vs Flexible CPI https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-is-inflation-measured-sticky-cpi-vs-flexible-cpi/id1432836154?i=1000521909707   What are Repos and Reverse Repos https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/what-are-reverse-repos-and-repos-fed-enters-overnight/id1432836154?i=1000523659106

Inflation – What to Watch – Supply Side vs Demand Side

Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, is back to talk a walk around the markets to discuss both sides of inflation debate, interesting numbers around all-time highs, hedging, the FED, Housing Prices. Jay turns the tables and hosts asking Derek about the case for and against inflation being transitory.   Transitory or Non-Transitory case for inflation Container shipping issues with inflation The Fed interest rate tapers and rate decisions Market at All-time highs Just best Hedge Housing Prices big deal nor no-deal? Demand for Treasuries Reverse Repos and the Fed Covid risks in the economy Afghanistan risk to markets   Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Follow Derek’s blog articles on the ZEGA site https://zegafinancial.com/blog     Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Gamestop short squeeze and wall street bets podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gamestop-short-squeeze-by-reddit-wall-street-bets-traders/id1432836154?i=1000507187446   What are Repos and Reverse Repos https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/what-are-reverse-repos-and-repos-fed-enters-overnight/id1432836154?i=1000523659106   How much Bitcoin or Ethereum to hold https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/how-much-ethereum-and-bitcoin-should-i-have-in-my-portfolio/id1432836154?i=1000520947855

Talking Inflation, All-Time Market Highs, Interest Rates, Covid, Housing, & More

Traderscoach.com founder Bennett McDowell joins Derek Moore. They hit the record button and what ensues is a free-flowing discussion around what common themes they see from successful investors and trades. Plus, what common mistakes they see repeated by those struggling to find their trading voice. Later they discuss trading live in front of an audience in a trading challenge. Favorite trading movies. And writing and publishing investment books.   Bennett McDowell and Derek Moore reminisce about their days on air doing the Market Huddles Discussion around common mistakes traders and investors make repeatedly What traits successful traders make What percentage of traders make money? Doing presentations at the Traders Expos in Las Vegas and New York Participating in a live trading challenge Favorite trading movies What percentage of asset to put into trading versus your larger investing assets? Writing investment books Derek’s favorite book by Bennett McDowell Impact of technology on investing Tracking your trading How you can be wrong a lot and still win at trading Risk of ruin tables Process of writing financial books   Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Bennett McDowell www.traderscoach.com   Click Here for Bennett’s free PDF article on money management, trade size, and risk of ruinhttps://ea125.isrefer.com/go/mmshare/jeanmcd/   Bennett McDowell’s Books on Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Bennett-McDowell/e/B001JS8NWY%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Day Trading for A Living Podast Around Brazil Study Showing 97% Don’t Make Money https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-broken-pie-chart-29878781/episode/day-trading-for-a-living-68947906/   Gamestop short squeeze and wall street bets podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gamestop-short-squeeze-by-reddit-wall-street-bets-traders/id1432836154?i=1000507187446

Bennett McDowell Guests to Discuss Trading Mistakes, Trading Live, Traits of Successful Traders and More…

You hear it all the time: start early contributing money to investment accounts. But just how big of a difference does it make? What about doing a monthly budget? Are detailed budgets more of a hassle than they are worth?   How much money at various ages needed to contribute to build wealth? Why some budgets may not be beneficial The big items like cars, rent, and mortgages make an impact not your Netflix account What if you invested the difference? How to review your statements to find things you don’t want or need anymore Look around your house to find things to fund your account   Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Netflix is not making you broke https://open.spotify.com/episode/06EbLDvG2oUxRlYILF0ngH    How to find money around your house to fund your investment accounts https://open.spotify.com/episode/4pqFDUwNV8wmVPyJUbMa1e 

Build Wealth Not Regrets

You often hear people quote historical stock and bond returns. But are they useful to investors? What lessons can you take from them to help with your portfolio construction? What challenges do historical investment returns have concerning dividend reinvestment and commissions? What about bond historical averages given our low-interest-rate environment?   S&P 500 Index Total Returns 1928- 2020 History of index funds and dividend reinvestment Treasury Bonds historical returns 1928-2020 Probabilities based on historical stock returns S&P 500 Index Total Return by decade Sources for historical return data     Mentioned in this Episode:   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Robert Shiller historical market data http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm   Aswath Damadoran website, blog, and data https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/   Robert Shiller book Irrational Exuberance https://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Revised-Expanded-Third/dp/0691173125?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1628453580&sr=8-1&linkCode=ll1&tag=tradesurfer-20&linkId=eea68424f97b1bf760a2d5bc1df2120a&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl   Jeremy Seigel book Stocks for the Long Run https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment-dp-0071800514/dp/0071800514?_encoding=UTF8&me=&qid=&linkCode=ll1&tag=tradesurfer-20&linkId=e34a4e3f2b776fcd7a89fa9e1297e9cc&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl

Historical Market Returns: Useful or Useless?

Watch CNBC or Fox Business for a short while and you are likely to see predictions on interest rates. But how would you see for yourself what the various futures markets are implying for future interest rates? Learn how you can look at the Fed Funds, Eurodollar, SOFR (Secured Overnight Funding Rate), and soon BSBY Rate futures to see into the future what market participants are currently thinking. Plus, many of you have variable-rate mortgages or home equity loans that are tied to the Libor Rate, or now SOFR or BSBY. See how to quickly recognize what the implied interest rates are on these key metrics.   How to calculate implied future fed funds rate CME Fed Funds Probability Tracker SOFR Secured Overnight Funding Rate Eurodollar Futures and implied 3-month Libor rate BSBY Rate based on CDs, Commercial Paper, Bank Deposits USD, Short term bank bond trades Fed Funds Futures SOFR Rate Futures Eurodollar Futures         Mentioned in this Episode:   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Eurodollar futures chain https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/eurodollar.quotes.html   SOFR Futures rates CME https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.html   CME FedWatch Probability Tool and Fund Funds Futures by Fed Meeting Date https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Clues to Watch On Future of Interest Rates

This week we discuss how advances in technology and dropping costs have made it better for investors. Has it ever been this good? Maybe investors worrying about payment for order flow are worried about the wrong things? Looking back when there was no dividend reinvestment and high commissions, it would have cost you an arm and a leg to replicate the index. Then we discuss updates to the S&P 500 earnings estimates and forward PE valuations. How things have changed from March of 2020.   How bid/ask spreads have narrowed greatly over the years. Decimalization vs. fractions in trading Higher commissions changed to zero commissions Payment for order flow Dividend Reinvestment Before index funds no way to replicate the S&P 500 Index How earnings estimates have risen since March of 2020 Earnings estimate ranges for the S&P 500 Index Forward PE Ratios Historical Averages PE Ratio S&P 500 Index Calculating the forward PE     Mentioned in this Episode:   JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/     Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&

You’re Worrying About the Wrong Things Plus S&P 500 Index Earnings and Valuation

Last week the latest CPI inflation data came out from the BLS. If you watched the news, they played it up. While we don’t know what inflation will be with any certainty, stop watching the news and start watching the data for yourself. In this week's episode, Derek runs through factors to keep an eye on and where you can track the data for yourself. What's going in with rental car prices? What about energy prices? What happens if you remove the re-opening items from core CPI?     CPI Consumer Price Index up 5.4% year over year in June 2021 Why are rental car prices surging? Commenting on Scott Minerd’s piece on Guggenheim’s site around inflation Sticky CPI vs Flexible CPI Real Disposable income check-in Housing prices vs mortgage payments as a percent of real disposable income Interesting items in CPI including rent, owners equivalent rent, shelter, used cars, rental cars, and more How you can track CPI trends Where to find the data on FRED Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis site   Mentioned in this Episode:   Real Disposable Income data https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96   Sticky CPI vs Flexible CPI data https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice   Mortgage Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP   Household  Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP   Article explaining the rise in rental car prices https://www.businessinsider.com/rental-car-shortages-us-travel-demand-chip-shortage-2021-4   Scott Minerd Guggenheim piece saying not to panic on inflation https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/still-no-reason-to-panic-about-inflation?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=scott+minerd&utm_content=macroeconomic+research&utm_campaign=macro+alert   BLS Inflation Data Release https://www.bls.gov/cpi/   Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&

Watch the Data not the News on Inflation

Container shipping rates are at all-time highs. So How bad is the situation? How bad is the backup at various container shipping ports? What effect is this having on inflation in the short term? Evergiven container ship released from Suez Canal     Busiest Container Shipping Ports Problems at Yantian port Ships anchored of container shipping ports causing backups The surge in Container shipping prices Panana Spread all-time high container shipping rates Empty sailings containing shipping Dwelling time container shipping The difference in rates Shanghai to LA vs La to Shanghai Container shipping rates impact on inflation New container shipbuilding orders up in 2021 to around 17% to 20% of the fleet Evergiven stuck in Suez Canal Evergiven container ship finally release from Suez Canal Effect on global trade due to container ships stuck in Suez Canal   Mentioned in this Episode:   Book The Box by Marc Levinson https://amzn.to/3hwcj61   Book Outside the Box by Marc Levinson https://amzn.to/3e7AgyN   Podcast Is Inflation Really Out of Control? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-inflation-really-out-of-control/id1432836154?i=1000526178078   Supplychaindive charts showing Covid container ship problems https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/yantian-china-port-covid-charts-data-congestion-ships-supply-chain/602014/   Balance of Trade Chart https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGSTB   Yantian port back to normal? https://theloadstar.com/yantian-back-to-normal-tomorrow-but-box-backlog-will-take-weeks-to-clear/ from THELOADSTAR site   Infographic showing impact to global trade from stuck Evergiven container ship in Suez Canal from Freightwaves site https://www.freightwaves.com/news/daily-infographic-ever-given-finally-released-from-custody-in-egypt   Yantian port to re-engage with pre-financial crisis expansion of 3 million TUEs at port https://theloadstar.com/port-of-yantian-dusts-off-pre-financial-crisis-plan-to-add-3m-teu-capacity/  

Container Shipping Effect on Inflation and Markets

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

hubhopper

Broken Pie Chart

hubhopper