  In this week's edition fo the BryghtCast Weekly Podcast, Consultant Bray Wheeler is solo discussing three recent events and their potential impact on private sector organizations. Topics Discussed South China Morning Post:  China coronavirus outbreak could be 10 times worse than SARS, expert says South China Morning Post: Another city joins Wuhan in quarantine lockdown as Beijing tries to contain deadly outbreak BBC:  Davos / World Economic Forum Hub US Department of Homeland Security:  Iran Bulletin US Department of Homeland Security: National Terrorism Advisory System //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Hello. Welcome to this week's episode of BryghtCast Weekly. Today is Tuesday, January 21st, 2020. My name is Bray Wheeler, consultant with Bryghtpath. In this week's episode, we're going to talk about the World Economic Forum, a recent bulletin by the National Terrorism Advisory System, and we're going to begin this week actually talking about the Wuhan coronavirus. So, the United States Centers for Disease Control has announced that the first case of the Wuhan coronavirus has been diagnosed in Washington State, here on Tuesday. The virus appeared last month in the Wuhan province of China and has already made hundreds sick. It's killed about six people already in Asia, according to current counts. The U.S. has become the fourth country outside of China with a confirmed case of the virus. The other countries include Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. While the virus can be spread from person to person, health professionals are indicating that it's not as easily spread, they think, as influenza or measles, for example. But there's not a lot of information kind of about this new virus, in terms of really what makes it tick, where it's kind of... They have a general idea of where it's coming from, but they don't have a lot of the details that they need, in order to effectively kind of combat the virus, as it stands right now. So, the World Health Organization is set to meet tomorrow, to decide whether to declare an international public health emergency. But more than likely, here in the U.S., the CDC has announced that in addition to previously announced passenger screenings... Which they announced on January 17th, I believe, at JFK Airport in New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco International Airports... the CDC is also going to start screening passengers flying into Hartsfield Jackson Airport in Atlanta, as well as O'Hare Airport in Chicago. Now, these screenings will only be for passengers that are flying directly or indirectly through Wuhan at the moment. Now certainly, if this kind of virus continues to spread, or things change, it will likely change the way in which they're screening at some of these things, and we could very well see an expansion to different airports. So, what can organizations do right now? Kind of with this new virus, people are already mentioning references to the SARS outbreak, or H1N1, or things like that. But really, kind of for medical facilities especially, a lot of them are beginning to change some of their intakes prompts, to make sure that they're asking anyone with a fever or respiratory symptoms if they've been to or been in contact with anybody who has been in China. We certainly would recommend this to any of our hormonal contraceptive clients or listeners here, to consider implementing those types of steps now. Certainly these facilities and U.S. organizations, as healthcare companies and facilities, definitely are kind of best positioned to respond to some of these and have plans and processes in place around epidemics, or outbreaks of different viruses and things like that. We're certainly in cold and flu season, so a lot of facilities are on alert for those. We've had measles here in the last couple of years, being kind of a real thing, in terms of needing to make sure that those things are contained. So, nothing new, but certainly something that you want to start asking those questions if you're a healthcare, medical company. For other organizations, it's definitely important now to kind of determine your level of travel exposure within Wuhan province in China, as well as other Asian countries, including kind of just China at large. But really, you're going to want to start connecting with your travel agencies or travel security and health vendors, to discuss resources, review processes for offering medical assistance, and just to ensure employees, when they return or if they're currently in or will be going to China or Asia, are aware of the virus, are aware of what medical resources you as an organization have in place for them. Where they should be going, who they should be contacted to make sure they're reporting any concerns about their travel safety or health, or issues that they're having, to your travel safety or security teams, your global operation centers, or just to their managers and leaders. That's kind of the most basic kind of reporting structure. From a broader standpoint, within the organization, it's good... This is kind of a good reminder, at this point, or a good prompt to review your business continuity workforce plans, your pandemic planning. Any related plans or processes, in terms of how you would manage through an incident around an issue like this. It's just a good time to start, kind of... If you haven't dusted them off in a while, it's a good time to dust them off. If you're kind of regularly engaged with them, making sure that you're accounting for any of the new kind of nuances or new information resources that you might be tracking, that are being made available through the CDC or other agencies around this virus. Now, certainly this virus here is... You know. There's not a lot of information there. It's not quite to the level of global concern that SARS is at, but it's definitely getting there. You know, the situation is evolving. It's not yet reached those levels. As I mentioned earlier, the international, or the World Health Organization hasn't issued anything yet. They probably will tomorrow. But it will be important to kind of make sure that you're right-sizing the threat of this for folks, too, because there could be a lot of concern as this thing kind of grows, and more people start talking about it. It's definitely made some headlines here today on Tuesday. But it's important that you as an organization are right-sizing this, in terms of kind of the severity and threat, as well as reviewing and discussing what you would do now, rather than when it's having a tangible impact or a real impact on your workforce, on their families, or on your company operations. Shifting gears a little bit, our next topic is the World Economic Forum is occurring this week in Davos, Switzerland. It's the forum's 50th anniversary, where countries, business leaders, thought leaders, international organizations of all different kinds and advocacy levels convene to discuss global economic issues. It tends to trail into some other topic categories, but the Forum is really about kind of bringing as many folks together, with some intense conversation around some of the major global issues that are going on right now, particularly economic issues. Prominent topics for this year's forum. Kind of the main one that's being talked about is just climate change. Australia's wildfires, rising sea levels, stronger storms, issues in places like Jakarta and California and I mentioned Australia, and others, as well as kind of the sensation that is internationally the Swedish environmental activist, Greta Thunberg, is set to speak. I believe she's speaking actually today, Tuesday, on the issue of climate change. And so, this issue is really looming large over this year's forum, of the announcements. Kind of Black Rocks Movement, and some other organizations and things like that. A lot of those attend these forums. There's a lot more pressure, and a lot of focus on this just as a real issue, because there are some tangible things that organizations and folks are starting to see, even though other organizations have different points of view. Whether or not you believe it's a real thing that's happening or not, we don't tend to get into the politics of it here, but it is the issue that probably will set to kind of take over the primary conversation there. Other topics that are expected to take some sort of center stage, and most likely will: Rising tensions in the Middle East. Certainly, the recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as some things that are going on in Yemen and Saudi Arabia and others, will likely have folks talking this week. Income inequality. Rising debt. China's rising economic power, kind of compared to Western economic frameworks and setups, is definitely a big issue. Brexit, of course, will likely be an issue, as that is coming down the road here. And then just kind of the forum itself. Its primary ideology is that of globalism, and really taking a focus that the more open borders, the more free trade, the more partnership that's occurring in the world economically, the less likely there will be conflict or broader issues. But there's definitely, folks are seeing kind of that counterpoint that's happening right now to globalism, is that rise of nationalism, authoritarianism, things like that. And so, that's kind of an undercurrent of a conversation that folks are expecting may be a real topic starter throughout the conference here, or the Forum this week. Finally this week, the Department of Homeland Security has, over the weekend, on Saturday, January 18th, released a National Terrorism Advisory System bulletin. It's kind of their lowest level of advisory. But, regarding the potential for Iran-backed terrorism occurring over the next few months. So, there's been kind of... Certainly, the tensions, as the media has indicated, have kind of started to shift down. However, with Iran's admission of its downing of the Ukrainian flight, as well as some other conversation things happening between Trump's administration and Iran in different speeches... You know, those tensions are still very much there, so what DHS has indicated here publicly is that they don't have any information indicating a specific or credible threat to the homeland. However, there is concern about Iran's ability to potentially carry out cyber attacks, as one of kind of the main offshoots here. We heard a lot about that right at the onset of potential responses. Iran ended up responding immediately with those missile strikes off of the U.S. base, which may or may not have injured U.S. military personnel. Initial indications were there were no injuries. There is some indication now that some service members were injured. Regardless of that fact, that was kind of the initial response, but folks kind of expected that there would be some other things that Iran would do in response to this, cyber-attacks being one. So, not really any new information, other than this going in an official bulletin. However, Iran and its partners and proxies, particularly Hezbollah, have demonstrated their abilities to conduct attacks inside and outside of the United States. Iran has a very global reach. I think we've talked about that before. I think Brian's talked about that a little bit in Managing Uncertainty Podcast. But their ability to kind of, for conventional conflict, is not on par with the U.S. or other world powers. However, their ability to fight proxy wars across the globe... Excuse me... is pretty significant. They are pretty well-positioned to do that. And so, there is a real chance that those things could happen inside or outside of the United States, you know, over the next few months. So, this bulletin is set to expire on March 18th, 2020. However, DHS often kind of updates or extends these bulletins as appropriate. They may cancel it earlier. I doubt it. They tend to let them either just expire organically, or oftentimes these are updated. And I expect that this one probably will, as well. But in terms of what organizations can do, the biggest thing for companies and organizations to do right now is to ensure that your cyber and your physical security teams are aware of this potential threat. I'm sure most are. I'm sure most of you get these types of alerts from DHS. But if you don't already, please, please subscribe to these DHS, NTAS alerts. You can find a link to those in our episode notes. It'll actually take you straight to this bulletin, and within the bulletin, there's a link that you can set up to subscribe to these things. But other opportunities exist for your organization. You know, just in terms of the kind of republishing general preparedness, safety, evacuation reminders. You want to be careful in that messaging, though, to avoid any unnecessary alarm or distraction that may be associated with these reminders, especially if you're talking about this threat or other threats that you may encounter. You just want to make sure that you're setting the table appropriately, and that you're not necessarily referencing it to a specific incident or issue. It's really just kind of a great time to issue some of those general responses, so that it's on top of mind for folks, but you're also not overly alarming folks as they go through about their normal business day. So, that will do it for this week's edition of BryghtCast Weekly. You can find links to the topics that we talked about today in the episode notes, as I've mentioned before. Thank you for joining us, and we'll talk to you next week.

BryghtCast Weekly

BryghtCast Weekly - Episode #5: The Week of January 20th, 2020

In this week’s edition of the BryghtCast Weekly Podcast, Bray Wheeler, Consultant, and Bryan Strawser, Principal and Chief Executive discuss three recent events and their potential impact on private sector organizations. Topics Discussed Axios:  The China challenge stumps the 2020 candidates Axios: BlackRock's new climate strategy NPR: In the Philippines, Volcano is quieter, but officials renew warnings for people to leave //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bray Wheeler: Hi and welcome to BryghtCast Weekly or the week of January 13th, 2020. This is our first one for 2020. Bryan Strawser: It's our first one for a little bit. Bray Wheeler: It has, we've taken a little break during the holidays and such as well as just kind of- Bryan Strawser: There really wasn't a whole lot of significant stuff that was going on. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, there's only probably so much you people want to hear about either impeachment or sports or all sorts of different things. You had put out an episode on Iran as well. Bryan Strawser: So we did an episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast yesterday, where I talked a little about Iran and some of the things happen there and what companies should consider and do. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, so this is Bray Wheeler. I'm a consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: And this is Bryan Strawser, principal and chief executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: We like to do, our intro is a little delayed here on BryghtCast. So this week we're going to try, and keep it just a little bit short and sweet and focus on a couple of different things. One kind the major kind of global conversation or global moment that's happened here in the last few days is the volcano eruption in the Philippines. That started occurring on Sunday. The volcano erupted Sunday sending ash about nine miles into the sky. Prompted warnings from Philippine officials in terms of hey, this could be a lot worse. This could really be a catastrophic explosion. So far that hasn't necessarily been the case. It's certainly kind of continued to rumble and spew ash and lava. Bray Wheeler: However, kind of the major impact from this so far has been kind of an ash cloud that was initially sent, that initial one that disrupted flights and operations within Manila. So this volcano is located about 37 miles south of Manila, the Philippines Capitol. And so this ash cloud on Sunday really started to kind of disrupt air operations and that's usually the kind of real critical thing with a lot of the volcanic eruptions. There's not a whole lot of major technology bases or industry things kind of at the foothills of a volcano for probably obvious reasons. But certainly is having an impact on the folks that do live near there. There are thousands of people who have been evacuated around the volcano, but that disruption to Manila and major cities kind of around that area is certainly the big thing for travelers. Bray Wheeler: So flights were disrupted Sunday. That continued into really today when operations kind of resumed normally. So for right now for companies, it sounds like Manila is ... The airport is open, Manila is available, it is not under lava, it is not at risk for some kind of awful- Bryan Strawser: This is not Pompeii. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, awful, awful, awful kind of situation. However, there is a major backlog from those flights being delayed here in the last couple of days. There's a lot of people that are just trying to leave the area in addition to that. So there is a lot of travel disruption at the airport in general, but for businesses in Manila, it is important to make sure that you're accounting for your folks you're looking at your business continuity plans. You're monitoring, kind of the air quality, the travel ability within the area. Just kind of really your basics for monitoring those different things. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I think yesterday when we had a couple of clients that were impacted by this, I think it was kind of a known how long of a problem this was going to be. Of course, the Philippines government doesn't do the best job of kind of communicating what's happening with these things either. But yeah, I think Bray's got it right. I would monitor carefully what's going on. Travel disruption is probably the biggest risk and that would become reality before there was any real disruption in ... I started to say Hong Kong. Many real disruptions in Manila in terms of regular business operations. It's air quality and transportation, particularly air travel issues I think are the biggest issues to keep an eye on, for right now. Bray Wheeler: Yep. So moving on. The next topic we have for this week is BlackRock. The kind of major investments group made an announcement this week that they're going to be holding companies to higher environmental standards. And really the implications here are, this is kind of a conversation long time kind coming and BlackRock has kind of made similar statements in similar positions on some different issues. But really, they've issued an overt threat as we get into the kind of proxy season and board meeting season and shareholder meeting season. Bray Wheeler: They're threatening to vote against management boards that aren't disclosing kind of climate change risks in the fashion that they would like to see them or having those plans kind of associated with those be in line to key industry standards. So standards like CAFE standards, which are really around car emissions or the gold standard for carbon or the IS 14,000 kind of family of standards around kind of climate environmental policies. Those are kind of some of the kind of the major ones that are out there. But really for companies, BlackRock is a huge, huge player in the game. As probably most companies know, but to have a position on climate change risks, climate change plans, that narrative is becoming a bigger and bigger topic just in general. Bray Wheeler: And when some of these bigger players like BlackRock or if Vanguard steps into it or some of these others, companies are going to have to do something about them and start implementing some of those things and having those conversations if they aren't already taking place. And if they are already taking place, making sure that they are aligned to something substantial because these players will not back off of that. And they control big votes. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I mean I've been down this road, I mean in the previous employer, dealing with activists, investors at various levels of aggression and influence. And then we've had consulting clients that have been the subject of activist investor campaigns including large private equity firms of which BlackRock is pretty much, I think the largest PE firm and portfolio management company that's out there. It's tough to ... I don't want to overemphasize the importance of this play that BlackRock is making. It's going to make some publicly traded companies very uncomfortable to have to address some of these issues. At the same time in less BlackRock is willing to go in and attempt a proxy fight for majority control over this issue. It's not going to have a huge amount of influence on companies that choose to resist them. Bray Wheeler: No, I think though the one-piece with a BlackRock versus kind of more the kind of activist hedge fund managers is oftentimes groups like BlackRock or Vanguard or things like that are seen as active investors. This means they're actively having a dialogue with those corporations and they're actively engaged. There's more of a kind of a partnership kind of approach there. And so I think to your point, BlackRock isn't going to probably issue too many proxy fights against it, but their influence and their vote in the general conversation and with other investors to say, "You know what, you didn't do enough there. And we're choosing to make company X an example here, And we're going to vote against management proposals on whatever or we're going to vote against these board members because they're members of the committee that's charged with overseeing some of these things." That could have an impact in terms of the dialogue and the ability for companies to kind of adjust. Bray Wheeler: And I don't think that they're looking for every company to kind of save the world, but I think they are looking for companies to start being a little bit more frontal. And a little bit more strategic in kind of ... Trying to think of the right word. A little bit more overt in terms of how they're playing within kind of this sphere and what influence they do have kind of on the overall kind of issue itself. Bryan Strawser: I would agree with that. Bray Wheeler: So with that kind of our last topic, and it should be a relatively quick one because of course, they'll probably be more to play out here, but because it has to do with China. Which has been one of our favorite frequent topics here over the last few months? But ironically doesn't have a whole lot to do with Hong Kong, fortunately, but does have to do with Taiwan. Another kind of satellite geographic location within a kind of China's sphere of influence or in this case not influence. Bray Wheeler: So China has always viewed Taiwan as part of China. Taiwan has always in the rest of the world, has always viewed Taiwan as generally independent of China for the most part. There's probably a few kinds of geopolitical exceptions with different countries, but everybody's seen Taiwan as a separate independent country. China very much wants to bring it back to China. They recently had an election over the weekend. It was- Bryan Strawser: It didn't go the way that China thought it was going to. Bray Wheeler: It did not. And actually it surprised quite a few people in terms of how decisive it was against China. So the pro kind of independent President Tsai, and I apologize if I get this wrong. Tsai Ing-wen won decisively. It wasn't too close. Of course, China then responded with their typical bluster of there were hands in the pot, it was rigged. The United States may have had some influence. We don't believe it kind of conversation and narrative that China typically puts out, but in the face of what they're dealing with, Hong Kong and the decisiveness of this Taiwan election. China's kind of in a weird kind of awkward spot for the moment of trying to figure out is this policy and this plan that Xi Jinping has put forth, is that actually bearing fruit? Bray Wheeler: And this was kind of a direct challenge back to the Chinese premier of yeah, we're not falling in line. Your influence has clearly waned, at least in this election of what's going on. So on the heels of continued unrest in Hong Kong, which China has much more control over that situation along with Taiwan. China is kind of in a weird spot right now. Just in kind of in their home area. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, there's a pretty good article coming out of the election in Axios yesterday. I think Axios, China is their smaller magazine, smaller online product that looks at just trying to ... That said that they think that China has been overestimating and over-communicating their influence and wealth and economic growth and military capacity for some time. And then you start to look at ... They were kind of building this off of a couple of different things, but one of the biggest was the Taiwan elections, just not going the way that China was expecting that to go. And really being rebuffed at the polls. And I don't know, I mean maybe I have an American point of view on this, but I've been to Taiwan a couple of times and you walk and talk to folks who live there and folks in Taipei City, I haven't been outside of Taipei. But around Taipei City and none of them want to be part of China. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: They might be interested in a peaceful reconciliation that allows for some easier border movement and some things. But I don't get the sense that the average Taiwanese man or woman wants to live in China. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: Their version of China, Taiwan. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: Not the communist China version of China. Bray Wheeler: Correct. Yeah. I think that's kind of a good read because not only in addition to these elections, there's also the kind of the international and domestic challenges of their kind of their relations with the Muslim minorities within China. And the fallout from some of their policies and things that they've been doing. Reeducation or whatever you want to call it. With some of the children and things like that within these Muslim minority populations and in Western China. Really kind of China's influence over the last few months. It's kind of just taken some weird kind of hits. And I think that Axios article is probably pretty, pretty interestingly kind of accurate in terms of what China is projecting is not necessarily what is reality or what even people have ... Because I think a lot of people kind of internationally probably have some skepticism around China's bluster, but they don't overtly kind of challenge a lot of it because there's a lot of interdependency of where China is interconnected. Whether it's economically or politically or things like that. Bray Wheeler: But to kind of see some of these things start to play out in their kind of their rebuffs just in general within the international community. The trade war, things like that, that they've kind of just taken some weird kind of hits over the last ... Nothing that's going to destabilize or kind of throw them off orbit. But definitely their influence and their kind of reputation or their brand perception to put it in kind of business terms is definitely not what it was six months ago or a year ago. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I mean I think you're dead on. And we both looked at the article. I thought it was a pretty good summation that China's perhaps not at the peak of their game in some areas that are commonly thought that they were. That article covered the economy and military and might and projection. I think it was really focused on China's Naval fleet and some of the challenges China's had with operating a fleet at the capacity and expertise that the United States and the United Kingdom have. But also just where their foreign policy has perhaps not been as astute in dealing with President Trump and dealing with Taiwan and others in there. And I don't think this takes away anything from China's rise to be a pure competitor of the United States in the long haul, but certainly indicates that perhaps not all as well inside the bubble as the Chinese government might portray itself to be. Bray Wheeler: No, especially post kind of president Xi Jinping election and kind of the expectations that were to come from really kind of that like the lifetime election of him in this role, it's not really what you want to see right out of the gate. Kind of after an election like that to have kind of these types of hits. China probably wanted to see some of this stuff go a little bit more their way to kind of justify what was going on, and especially after everything that he's done internally. Bryan Strawser: Right. That's it for this edition of BryghtCast. We'll be back next week or thereafter with another new episode. Be well.  

BryghtCast Weekly - Episode #4: The Week of January 13th, 2020

In this week’s edition of the BryghtCast Weekly Podcast, Bray Wheeler, Consultant, and Bryan Strawser, Principal and Chief Executive at Bryghtpath discuss three recent events and their potential impact on private sector organizations. Topics discussed: CNN:  Man set alight hours after Hong Kong protestor shot by police as clashes erupt citywide CNN:  Protests rage across Hong Kong after man shot by police WSJ:  Hong Kong Protester shot by police as clashes escalate BBC:  General Election 2019: Farage calls on Tories to stand aside for Brexit Party El Pais:  Socialists win repeat Spanish election, Vox becomes third-biggest force in Congress Reuters:  No majority seen in Spanish election, far-right boosted: El Pais poll of polls New York Times:  'I assume the Presidency': Bolivia Lawmaker declares herself Leader The Intercept:  Bolivia and Brazil at the Crossroads Episode Transcript A transcript of this episode will be available within 24 hours.  

BryghtCast Weekly - Episode #3: The Week of November 11th, 2019

BryghtCast Weekly – Episode #2: The Week of October 28th, 2019

BryghtCast Weekly - Episode #1: The Week of October 21st, 2019

Welcome to BryghtCast Weekly, a podcast series covering recent and upcoming events and their potential impact on the continuity and reputation of businesses. Each week, our experts speak to dynamic events occurring around the world and what they mean for the business community. We aim to tell you what has happened - and what you should be doing about it to ensure your organization is prepared.

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BryghtCast Weekly

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