As the nation struggles to get back to some type normalcy, the reality is that we will see further shutdowns as we head into the winter months.   It’s impossible to forecast the full economic and financial impact of the pandemic, but we do know that many people are unlikely to return to normal work and economic consumption patterns anytime soon.  It’s also anticipated that  household and business defaults will likely increase and negatively affect the financial sector.   Joining the podcast to explain the federal government’s response and potential future intervention is Angela Vossmeyer, Assistant Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research.  Dr. Vossmeyer’s research interests include econometrics, simulation-based inference, financial economics, financial crises, and economic history.

Capital Markets Today

Gov. Financial Intervention in Response to Covid – Vossmeyer, Claremont McKenna

In the past few months millions of people have lost their jobs and we have seen the most rapid spike in unemployment in history.  This is not your typical unemployment event and the way the government reports the unemployment rate may not have caught up with the new economy. Welcome to Capital Markets Today.  I am producing a series of podcasts that demonstrate to investors why distressed debt, specifically, distressed real estate or (REO) and mortgage loans (NPL) may be a good investment to include in your investment portfolio.  Today I will focus on the unemployment rate that is being publish compared to the amount of people who are actually not working.

The Normalization of Distressed Debt Part 2 - The Unemployment Rate - Mini Pod

Welcome to Capital Markets Today.  I will be producing a series of podcasts that help explain to potential investors why distressed debt, specifically, distressed real estate or (REO) and mortgage loans (NPL) may be a good investment to include in your investment portfolio.  There are many issues brewing that could trigger increased REO and NPL opportunities besides the obvious Covid related problems being discussed in the news daily.  Today I will focus on one issue that could cause problems for decades to come. Currently, most of us are focused on the immediate impact of the Covid crisis, the shut down, unemployment, interest rates and government stimulus.  All these issues have caused the immediate scenario that we are operating in today, but what is the long-term impact?  And does this long-term impact create a long-term opportunity for NPL and REO buyers? As most of the news talks about enforcing mandatory lockdowns and handing out money to citizens, there has been a problem that has been rapidly expanding in the background.  In fact, this problem might create a crisis that will not just be felt in the next week, the next month, or even the next year, but it might be felt for several decades to come. 

Why Distressed Debt - Crisis May Be Looming Part 1 - Mini Podcast

The latest long-term mortgage default projections from many analyst is now hovering around 7%.   This number will be bifurcated by loan product with FHA loans seeing the bulk of the defaults.  However, this number is pure projection and the long term number will depend on Expiration of the supplemental unemployment benefits due to occur at the end of July A further increase in the unemployment rates and continuing jobless claims. And Potential decline in home values Joining the podcast today to discuss the NPL market and its outlook is myself.  I was recently invited on an IMN podcast where I discuss the market and the launching of our shinning new Reg D distressed asset fund.  We are putting on the final touches on the fund and it should be ready to launch within the month.  I am CEO and Founder of PEMCO Capital Management and our firm has been providing platform for institutional investor to gain exposure in niche sectors within the distressed residential mortgage and real estate markets.  With our Reg D, we are now providing our institutional platform to accredited retail investors as well.

PEMCO Capital Launching Distressed Reg D Fund

In April, the unemployment rate increased from 4.4% to 14.7%, the largest one month increase in history.  It is likely that the unemployment rate hits 20% in May and some forecast a 25% unemployment matching that of the Great Depression rate. However, the more concerning percentage is the estimate by many economists that 40% of the jobs lost will be permanent.  No matter how the numbers turn out, there will be a significant impact to mortgage defaults, especially on modified and FHA mortgage loans.  Joining the podcast today to discuss the outlook for real estate note investing is Cody Faller, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Faller Financial.  Faller financial works with investors across the country from large banks and hedge funds to individual note buyers.

C-19, Real Estate Note Investing Post Covid-19, Cody Faller, Faller Financial

The COVID-19 crisis, like the subprime mortgage crisis a decade ago, has sparked major public interventions to stabilize the financial markets. But the Fed isn’t stepping in to bail out the real estate sector — and the big losers are set to be ordinary households. This is the intro to an article title “Another Real Estate Crash Is Coming” written by Shehryar Qazi, a doctoral student and researcher in political economy at the University of London We are fortunate to have Shehryar on the podcast today to discuss the article and obtain his thoughts on how the real estate market will play out over the next 18-24 months.  Shehryar is a PhD Candidate in the department of economics at the University of London and is the coordinator for the universities “Political Economy of the COVID-19 Crisis” project.

C-19, "Another Real Estate Crash Is Coming", Qazi, PhD Candidate Unv. of London

For distressed debt buyers, it could be the calm before the storm.  Some deals are floating about with investors pricing them as a sort of reconnaissance exercise to determine the bid/ask levels. The first wave to hit was leveraged lenders, but most expect a sharp increase in deal flow by the 3rd or 4th quarter once participants on both the buy and sell side have more transparency on how the Covid-19 issue will play out. Joining the podcast to discuss the approaching NPL opportunity is David LeBlanc, Managing Director at DebtX.  David covers banks, investment banks, opportunity funds, hedge funds and other institutional investors active in the secondary market. David previously ran DebtX's trading desk for 10 years, including during the great financial crisis. He has traded over $30B in distressed and performing commercial and residential real estate and corporate debt in the secondary market. 

C-19, Secondary Mkt Loan Sales: Opportunity or Business as Usual, LeBlanc-DebtX

In just a matter of days, origination of alternative loans, known as “non-QM lending,” came to an abrupt halt.  Non-QM investors worry about risk in an economy shaken by COVID-19 and have stopped buying new loans. Non-QM lenders now have loans sitting in their pipeline with no buyers.  This creates a problem for lenders as most are not set up to own loans and are required to move the loans off their warehouse lines. Joining the podcast to discuss buying and selling in the alternative loan market is Stephen Bone, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Banes Capital Group.  Stephen’s desk trades non-governmental guaranteed residential and commercial whole loans.

COVID-19, Impact On Trading Alternative Whole Loans, Stephen Bones-Banes Capital

More than 10 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of March due to Covid-19 and some analysts predict the unemployment rate could climb to 25%.  Florida was hit hard in the 2008 crash and many in the state fear the Covid-19 shut down could result in more foreclosures and bankruptcies seen in past recessions. Joining the podcast to discuss what to do now to prepare your portfolio for increased defaults in Florida is Harris Howard, managing partner of the Howard Law Group.  Harris focuses his practice on the representation of servicers and investors in real estate litigation. 

COVID-19, Prepare Your Florida Portfolio For Surge In FC & BKs, Howard Law Grp

As we head into the spring home selling season, economist are predicting a dismal performance.  There are estimates that home sales could fall by 35% annually compared with previous years.  Analysts are watching closing to see if the strong monetary policy implemented in conjunction with pent up demand will create a positive rebound over the summer. Joining the podcast to discuss housing is Daren Blomquist, Vice President of Market Economics at Auction.com.  Daren analyzes economic data trends within the real estate market in an effort to create a more efficient marketplace for distressed sellers and buyers.

COVID-19, Home Sales & Values, Daren Blomquist, VP Market Economics, Auction.com

The bond purchasing program initiated by the fed along with the impact of COVID-19 has created extreme volatility in the 10-year treasury which influences long-term mortgage rates.  Just this month, the 10-year ranged from 45 basis points to 1.2%. As a result of the erratic bond movement, there has been a wave of margin calls by broker-dealers who sold hedges to mortgage bankers quickly eroding the bankers working capital. Joining the podcast to discuss the mortgage market is Brent Nyitray, Director of Capital Markets at Ark Mortgage.  Brent is also the author of the Daily Tear Sheet’s, “Morning Report”, a daily update on financial markets and the economy.

COVID-19-Lending and Margin Calls, Nyitray, Director of Cap Mkts-Ark Mortgage

Servicers are required to advance principal and interest on securitized mortgage loans to investors even if the borrower stops making payments. Earlier this week, to the dismay of many in the servicing industry, the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it has no plans to create a federally backed liquidity facility to assist struggling servicers.  In fact, The Agency will simply transfer servicing in the event a servicer lacks enough cash on hand, most likely causing another round of servicing consolidation or perhaps forcing some servicers out of business. Joining the podcast to discuss servicing in todays COVID-19 environment is Gagan Sharma, President and CEO of BSI Financial Services.  Gagan acquired BSI Financial from a bank in 2006 and has grown BSI to one of the top nationwide special servicing platforms

COVID-19 - Mortgage Servicing Impact, Gagan Sharma, President/CEO BSI Financial

Welcome to Capital Markets Today.  This month, we are producing a series of podcasts featuring industry experts to discuss the impact of the covid-19 crisis on mortgage origination and distressed mortgage and real estate related assets. Today, we are going to explore the difference between todays COVID-19 based economic collapse versus the 2008 financial and mortgage induced collapse. Many will argue a collapse is a collapse and as a result, we’ll see job loss, mortgage defaults and home value declines.This may be true, but there are 4 major differences today then in 2008. The first is that FHA is a much larger percentage of the mortgage market than in 2008. Second the fed cannot cut rates further unless we go negative Third, any fiscal stimulus will add to an already gigantic deficit. And Fourth, everyone will be dealing with a large healthcare crisis on top of a recession. Joining the podcast to discuss the comparison of the 2008 and 2020 financial crisis is Brad Staley, Managing Member of Pinnacle Rock Capital.  Brad is also the author of a white paper title “2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis vs. the 2020 COVID-19 Economic Collapse.

COVID-19, 2008 / 2020 Crisis Comparison, Staley-Pinnacle Rock Capital

Welcome to Capital Markets Today and the MWM Fund Note Investing podcast series.This is the 2nd in a series of 5 podcasts discussing the creation and strategy of the MWM Fund, a req A fund enabling the smaller investor to participate in the non-performing note investment niche. Joining the podcast today is TJ Osterman and Rick Allen, founders of the MWM Fund.  In the last podcast, we discussed the opportunity in the note space as well as the overall strategy of the MWM Fund.  Today, we will get more into the weeds and discuss the fund structure, how to participate, fees and anticipated return.

MWM Fund Series #2, Note Investing For The Individual Investor

Freddie Mac just announced it began marketing a non-performing loan sale with about $400 million in Unpaid Principal Balance.   The loans are being sold via five pools, four standard pool offerings and one extended timeline pool designed for smaller investors and non-profits. The definition of smaller investor is relative, for example the smaller expo pool is in excess of $20 million in UPB.   Over the past few months, a portion of our audience made up of the smaller investor have asked how they can participate in the growing non-performing mortgage loan asset class.  As a result, we are putting on a series of podcast to educate our listeners on how they can participate.   Joining the podcast today is Kevin Shortle, a seasoned investors with over 25 years of experience in the real estate and mortgage space.  Kevin is also the author of the book “Real Estate Without Renters” and trains note investors nationwide.

MWM Fund Podcast Series #1, Note Investing For The Individual Investor

Produced by Capital Markets Today, host Louis Amaya, discusses capital markets, whole loan /MSR/ secondary trading, real estate and mortgage lending with industry experts.

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Capital Markets Today

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