Recent volatility in financial markets and persistent geopolitical risks create an opportunity for a fresh look at gold prices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses gold prices and whether our short-term outlook has changed.

Confluence Podcasts

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Gold: An Update of Current Conditions (2/7/2022)

While the West has been focused on the Russian threat to invade Ukraine and expand its sphere of influence there, recent developments in another former Soviet republic, Kazakhstan, have also appeared to increase Russian influence and have important implications for world energy prices. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today with some analysis on the situation.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Two Power Plays in Kazakhstan (1/31/2022)

Will consumers keep consuming enough to sustain economic growth if interest rates rise? The answer might begin to emerge as we explore a separate question in today's discussion with Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady: what exactly drives consumption? Is it a rise in real income or is it an increase in the "wealth effect"?

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - Real Income versus the Wealth Effect; What is Driving Consumption? (1/24/2022)

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, joins host Phil Adler in looking at the highlights from Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion will be on policy expectations and potential risks for this year.

Confluence of Ideas - The 2022 Outlook

We’ve written extensively about the worsening geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which have already affected investors. In our "2022 Geopolitical Outlook" published in December, we identified China as the #1 geopolitical issue to impact financial markets and investment policy for the foreseeable future. In the inaugural episode of Confluence's new Geopolitical Podcast series, Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the challenges and potential outcomes created by the present confrontational relationship between the U.S. and China.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What Would a U.S.-China War Look Like? (1/18/2022)

When will the Federal Reserve begin a much-anticipated series of rate hikes in order to tame inflation? Many, if not most, market analysts are predicting more than one rate hike and perhaps as many as four in 2022, but Confluence goes against the grain on this issue. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady explains why the Fed may delay rate hikes until 2023.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly - The Path of Monetary Policy (1/10/2022)

What's causing it and should we be worried? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, takes a look at the flattening bond yield curve and explains how inflation and Fed rate hike expectations have affected it.

Asset Allocation Weekly - What's Causing the Yield Curve to Flatten? (12/17/2021)

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, and Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, discuss the geopolitical problems that could affect regional stability with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Risks to Iran, India, China, Russia, and the “stans” are discussed, including the potential for a refugee crisis that might spread beyond the region.

Confluence of Ideas - The Regional Threats from the Taliban in Afghanistan

The emergence of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron, appears to have changed inflation expectations at the Fed and gave financial markets quite a jolt as well when the news came out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins to discuss what may be the reasoning behind Chair Powell's change of heart and the possible impact on investors.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Omicron Problem (12/10/2021)

As inflation heats up, will gold prices do the same? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, gives an update on the price of gold.

Asset Allocation Weekly - An Update on Gold (12/3/2021)

President Biden has some open positions to fill on the Federal Reserve Board, and the process bears close watching as the market anticipates future decisions on interest rates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how the policy tilt of the Fed could change based not only on who is chosen, but also the speed at which positions are filled.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Composition of the FOMC (11/19/2021)

Where are bond yields headed? An index that may be little-known among many investors, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, might provide some valuable clues. Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, explains what this index measures and how it's proving to be a fairly accurate predictor of future bond yields.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and Bond Yields (11/12/2021)

Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady is here to discuss the market's influence on the Fed. Can we, with any confidence, look to the performance of financial markets for clues as to when the Federal Reserve will move on interest rates? Isn't the Fed supposed to prioritize inflation and employment as factors in its decision-making rather than rescuing the markets?

Asset Allocation Weekly - Is Monetary Policy Affected by Financial Markets? (11/5/2021)

Raising the federal debt limit has reemerged this fall as a political issue with the potential to impact the financial markets. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the current standoff over the debt limit and the investment implications.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Debt Ceiling and the Platinum Coin (10/29/2021)

Social security recipients will be getting a raise next year: cost of living adjustment (COLA) announced by the federal government is 5.9%. Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses how the social security COLA impacts the economy and how it compares to other years.

Asset Allocation Weekly - The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2022 (10/22/2021)

Confluence Investment Management Podcast Series

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Confluence Podcasts

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