In today's NBA, are analytics just a regular season tool? Analytics have a major place in today’s basketball world. At some level, every team relies on data and analytics for roster construction, salary negotiation, and in-game strategy. But the playoffs? They're a different story. In the NBA's second season, is it time to ignore the numbers and let talent, tenacity, and those hated "intangibles" rule the court? It's a question perplexing GMs and coaches alike. We'll search answers with Los Angeles Lakers reporter, Mike Trudell. 

Counterpoints: The Sports Analytics Podcast from MIT Sloan Management Review

Why Analytics Don’t Always Pay Off in the Playoffs

The explosion of streaming media offers fans unlimited access to sports and entertainment. So how can teams entice their audience to the events happening here and now? Sports Innovation cofounder and CEO Angela Ruggiero says success starts with understanding just how fans’ behavior has changed with the advent of digital technology — meaning, executives of sports companies and media outlets alike must be willing to completely rethink how they approach their marketing.

Front Office, Disrupted

Recent years have seen an explosion in the NFL passing game and emerging analytics demonstrate that teams that throw the ball more win the game more. So does this mean the run no longer matters? That’s not entirely clear. We talked with The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen who has gone deep on analyzing the value of the run in today’s NFL.

The Running Game Is Only Mostly Dead

Counterpoints takes on two pressing questions in the sports analytics field: the issue of information overload and whether there is such a thing as too much data, and a very different — but related — issue: Biometrics. We’ll go to the mat over whether or not professional athletes will be willing to share their personal biometric data in real time.

Information Overload?

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: The rag-tag group of underdogs overcomes the more skilled favorite thanks to nothing more than their belief in each other. That popular sports movie cliché may feel unrealistic at times, but when it comes to building a team in real life, the value of cohesiveness and chemistry is increasingly measurable and provable. Whether it’s the NBA’s 2004 Detroit Pistons, the 2016 Leicester City Foxes soccer club, or the miracle 2003 Penrith Panthers of Australian rugby, there are many examples of the right players in the right system doing something seemingly impossible. But is it actually possible to quantify team chemistry — and if so, can such assessments really make a difference on the field? We speak with Simon Strachan of Gain Line Analytics to find out.

Talent vs. Teamwork

In the NBA’s modern era of pace-and-space, small ball, and chucking away from 3, it feels like there’s no more place for the lumbering 7-foot center who used to be the backbone of the league. But the burgeoning field of defensive analytics shows that this "dinosaur" might not be going extinct just yet. Ben speaks with Ivana Saric, data scientist for the Philadelphia 76ers, about how defensive analytics are changing pro basketball and the roles of the people who play it.

Behold the Big Man

A herd mentality and a lack of good data have led teams to make some poor decisions about trading draft picks. Is there a better way?

What the NBA Gets Wrong About Lottery Pick Protections

Which teams make it to the college football playoffs isn’t as random as it sometimes seems, says University of Wisconsin-Madison professor Laura Albert. In this week’s Counterpoints podcast, we look at how Albert uses analytics to predict the brackets and how the football playoff selections compare to that other big college tournament, March Madness.

Predicting the College Football Playoff

Though lacking in glitz and glamour, the tackle, guard, and center positions make up the backbone of every NFL offense. Without skilled players in those roles — and players who can work as a unit — a team’s entire strategy can fall apart. In the past few years, teams like the Rams, Chiefs, and Saints have used a punishing offensive line to ignite high-powered offenses, while the Patriots have revolutionized O-Line versatility. Even while these once anonymous units are finally getting their due, new analytics measuring offensive line performance just might prove that we’re *still* underrating these guys. In this week’s interview, ESPN's Seth Walder discusses the growing field of O-Line analytics, and just how much winning the battle of the trenches correlates with winning the battle of the scoreboard.

NFL Pass Blocking is Even More Important than You Think

eSports has arrived as a major player in the sports world. Games like DOTA 2 and League of Legends have hundreds of millions of players, and the best gamers have fan-bases and endorsement deals right up there with the stars of "real" sports. As eSports grows, so do the analytics surrounding it.  But while the nature of eSports means that the amount of quantitative data for every game is staggering, the volatile nature of team-building and managing in the sport only increases the importance of *people* analytics, and how it leads to success. We explore the role of social science analytics in esports with the head of Shadow and one of the leading voices in eSports analytics, Tim Sevenhuysen.

The Secret of My eSports Success

When NBA superstars like Steph Curry, Joel Embiid, or Kawhi Leonard are given a planned night off, the impact of their absence isn’t just felt on the floor - it’s a financial issue as well. Whether it’s fans not getting what they believe they paid for, prices on the secondary ticket markets crumbling, or teams dealing with empty seats and depressed TV viewership, the consequences of a planned absence of a major star reverberate across the sport. But just how much is everyone losing when stars sit out - and which stars are creating the biggest holes in NBA pockets? To get to the bottom of one of the biggest financial questions surrounding the NBA, Paul spoke to Scott Kaplan, who presented his paper detailing the economic impact of NBA Superstars at the 2019 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

The Economic Impact of Sitting NBA Superstars

Even as soccer has become a multibillion-dollar business, with superstar transfer fees exceeding nine digits figures in euros, the best clubs can still gain a competitive advantage through their youth academies. Ajax, FC Barcelona, and Manchester United are just a few examples of teams that have consistently developed diamonds in the rough into championship contributors. But to develop those players, first you have to find them — and find them before anyone else does. At Chelsea Football Club, home to an academy that has recently produced burgeoning talents like Callum Hudson-Odoi and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, some of that responsibility falls on the head of research and innovation Ben Smith.

Second-Grade Soccer Superstars

Almost every team’s fans can point to a signature free agent signing that fell flat. Sometimes the reasons for the players’ underperformance are clear -- injuries for example. But often, it’s harder to pinpoint the cause. In those cases we tend to point to lack of effort as the culprit. This is what researchers call “shirking.” According to Richard Paulsen, who presented his paper “New Evidence in the Study of Shirking in Major League Baseball,” at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, “shirking occurs when an employee exerts effort... that is suboptimal in the eyes of the employer.” Richard speaks with us about his research on shirking and his belief that the Phillies are going to regret at least one free-agent signing from this off-season.

Buyer Beware! MLB Free Agents Underperform Their Contracts

Eddie Robinson at Grambling. Mike Krzyzewski at Duke. Gregg Popovich with the Spurs. It’s hard to underestimate the impact these coaches have had on their organizations. But are coaches always an X factor? Consider the Golden State Warriors. Dominating as they have been under Steve Kerr’s steady guiding hand, they have been every bit as successful during his two extended absences. So, how much do coaches actually matter? Two researchers from the University of Chicago just might have the answer.    

How Much Do Coaches Actually Matter?

Most Counterpoints listeners are well familiar with the sweeping changes that Moneyball brought to offensive strategy in baseball. Are we now on the cusp of a similarly profound transformation of pitching? Some believe the practice of "out-getting" is just that. Out-getting focuses getting outs as efficiently as possible, irrelevant of who gets them, when, and how. It upends traditional convention about how long or frequently a pitcher should pitch, in which role, or in which circumstances.  Will out-getting  prove to be a Moneyball-level transformation that ushers in fundamental change or just an occasional strategy deployed as much by desperation as by tactical brilliance? Ben and Paul disagree.

"Out-getting" Is the Next Great Baseball Strategy. Or Not.

This is a show for sports professionals, data junkies, and fans alike. It’s a show for anyone who knows that numbers are about much more than the score. Hosts Ben Shields (MIT Sloan School of Management) and Paul Michelman (MIT Sloan Management Review) engage the world’s premier sports analytics experts in a lively, occasionally controversial, conversation about what’s really happening both on and off the field.

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Counterpoints: The Sports Analytics Podcast from MIT Sloan M...

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