For data visualization, please use the links below or follow us on Twitter @DegenerateBiz-----------------------------------------------------Inflation is officially not transitory. But with economic growth prospects dimming (see Goldman and the IMF) and fossil fuels in scarce supply, the 10 year treasury yield retreats below 1.6%. With the benefit of hindsight, we observe that limited MegaTech panic selling was driven by the suddenness of bond yield moves. But as for the rates themselves, they make little difference (unless we verge back to 1.7% in a hurry).Against that backdrop earnings season begins favorably, injecting risk appetite back into equity markets sector-wide. The established banks all posted strong results, though traditional loan growth is waning. And Bitcoin breaks above $60k, capping a rally from last month&apos;s low of ~$40k as anticipation builds for SEC approval of a Bitcoin futures ETF. According to anonymous Twitter sage PlanB, the next level of resistance is $63k. We watch.Plus, the latest on FB, MRNA and TIGR. As well as Bobby&apos;s wave surf on AMZN.This week&apos;s charts: Bitcoin and Moderna!BTCUSDhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IzRBcgIi/MRNAhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0xpLohvX/

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The Coming Crypto Bull Cycle?

For data visualization, please use the links below or follow us on Twitter @DegenerateBiz-----------------------------------------------------In equities the debt ceiling panic attack triggered further selling in MegaTech. Facebook, under renewed outrage over its unscrupulous yet massively profitable modus operandi, took the worst of it. But sentiment steadied into repose after the Senate reached a deal to kick the can down the road until December. Is this a good time to accumulate more Facebook stock? We discuss. Energy prices continue to surge on fears of a winter shortage apocalypse. And finally in Blockchain, sentiment turns heavily bullish as American authorities say Crypto shall not be banned in the West. This week&apos;s chart: Facebook!https://www.tradingview.com/x/edrVOpjX/

Facebook Outrage Week!

In Equities:A Tech and Growth sell-off drags the S&P lower. As the third quarter grinds to a close, we are roughly 4% off the all time high reached in early September. So for all the clamor and discord of impending doom and the end of days, still not technically in a correction. What&apos;s happening? A host of anxieties building to moody sentiment and a rapid, incremental climb in treasury yields. To recap:A more hawkish tone from the Fed (which is still extremely dove-ish in historical terms)Contagion risk from Evergrande and the Chinese real estate sector it representsDebt ceiling angstSensational chatter of oil and gas shortages, with pictures from the UK showing scenes from 28 Days Later at the petrol stationAll of that compounded by ongoing bottlenecks in the Global Supply ChainWhere did this lead 10 year yields?Current rate of 1.472 is above the 200 day moving average (1.40) and the 50 day moving average (1.32)But we are still below the ~panic button level of 1.70And what does this mean in terms of sector rotation within equities?A bullish, cyclical trend in traditional energy (XLE, ERX)A further drubbing for Cathie&apos;s funds and growth-y future things (ARKK, XBI)In Crypto:Not to leave Crypto behind, Bitcoin is showing a promising technical pattern of consolidation around both the 200-day and 50-day moving average that telegraphs more upside...IF historical patterns hold. To boot, there is generally a flash of seasonal growth in the 4th quarter. Charts:S&P 500https://www.tradingview.com/x/41RdtZZf/US 10 Year Yieldhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9ZRyXV8w/XLEhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9FwDClmL/ARKKhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7Trt0G1c/BTCUSDhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JO74iVEj/

The Global Supply Chain Crunch

In Equities:With sentiment firmly cautious the major indices grind to a fork in the road, teetering on the edge of price action in either direction. What lurks on the horizon? The prospect of a crack up in the Chinese economy presaged by the implosion of real estate firm Evergrande. A soft taper so well telegraphed by the Fed that policy in the West couldn&apos;t possibly be a surprise. And a general spirit of caution in the markets that suggests...surely a correction must be coming? No one knows for sure.In the interest of a selective trade, we turn to traditional Energy (XLE), a sector so badly drubbed by talk of electric vehicles, the carbon future and the death of fossil fuels that it starts to look appetizing. But is it a proper value trade or a value trap? We think oil and gas might be due for a final moment in the sun. But not content to go long in conventional fashion, we look at ERX (2x leveraged XLE).In Crypto:With the majors Bitcoin and Ethereum in consolidation, we broaden our exposure to Crypto with a host of dubious alternative tokens. Each more ridiculous sounding than the next:1) Internet Computer (ICP)2) Axie Infinity (AXS)3) Chiliz (CHZ)4) Polkadot (DOT)Charts:XLE (Energy Index)https://www.tradingview.com/x/gNzNMjcu/ERX (2x leverage bull Energy Index)https://www.tradingview.com/x/ml3sxVk4/

Is it time for Oil's last dance?

For data visualization, please use the links below or follow us on Twitter @DegenerateBizIn Equities:The jobs report disappoints, which is utterly meaningless for the inexhaustible rally of the S&P. For all rests on the great taper. Leading the way is the Nasdaq, with QQQ approaching overbought territory. Maybe a correction is in the offing, but recent history suggests we&apos;re only in for a speed bump as Tech melts up (chart 1).Meanwhile, the US 10 year yield moves sideways. Nothing to report there (chart 2).On another note, the VIX approaches the bottom of its recent channel (chart 3). What are the implications for long-date call options?In Crypto:But all eyes turn to the logarithmic return of Ethereum (chart 4), which has now busted through all Fibonacci sequences to ~$3,900+. Not only that, the price action suggests a broader allocation away from Bitcoin into Ethereum in pursuit of yield. Having left $1,800 ETH on the floor, we&apos;re content to watch the rally play out.But there is still joy for Bitcoin, which has raked above 50k once again. In the Altcoin zone, would-be Ethereum killer Solana explodes. Why? Maybe James knowsBut I ask the big question, which is...are equities a waste of time next to Crypto (chart 5)?Charts:QQQhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qgSL0TR5/US10Yhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3tzGp0jd/VIXhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5IIlHuJ8/ETHUSDhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Mnwj1dO5/TQQQ (3x leveraged Nasdaq 100) vs ETH vs BTChttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LKjepu5J/

Are stocks a waste of time?

Jerome Powell hits the fairway off the tee from the summit of Jackson Hole, saying that tapering will happen unless the labor market falters, in which case, tapering may never happen. Just the sort of yes/no answer that can assuage market fears and send the major indices to all time highs. The choreography is beautiful. With that, the 10 year treasury yield oscillated down to 1.31% after temporarily breaking out of its predictable trading channel. Carter thinks we might be bouncing to 1.45% based on the technical break higher. I&apos;m not so sure. Taking the last two weeks in our stride, the turbulence of both the S&P (chart 2) and the Nasdaq from last week fit into a pattern of mid-month sell-offs quickly followed with buy-on-dip oscillations back to all time highs. The fabled correction of 2021 remains elusive with Jerry Powell in command. Meanwhile, XBI/LABU snap back after FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine refuels the biotech trade.And on Crypto corner, both Ethereum and Bitcoin have sustained momentum sufficient to come out of oversold territory. A dream of sub $3k Ethereum leaves with it. In fact, we are approaching a golden cross for Bitcoin in mid September. Will that send Crypto even higher?

Is there a correction looming?

What&apos;s going on with inflation and economic growth? No one knows really. July CPI inflation data points to a slight moderation in YoY growth. Consumer sentiment is waning in the face of the delta variant. Melting together with a successful bond auction this week, the 10 year treasury yield bounced before returning to 1.29%. And so we observe lower highs on the way down within a predictable range.A guy from the Macro Voices podcast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute echoes Raoul Pal, predicting slower than expected growth based on industrial data. Which could set the stage for a correction (~10% drawdown) later on. Maybe.But forget that for a second. Greg plagiarizes Carter Worth, who eyes a Fibonacci retracement in XBI (Biotech) as a buying opportunity. To quote the venerable Carter, it&apos;s gotten so bad it&apos;s good. But just to make it interesting, Greg buys LABU again (triple leveraged bull XBI).Finally we return to Ethereum, where upward price action has defied gravity. RSI suggests we are still overbought. And if recent history is any indication, we might be on the doorstep of a pullback. But where is support now? Our guess...somewhere around ~2,600.And just for fun, Bitcoin!

Crypto Momentum Mayhem

Just like Cathie Wood, we sell EM China at the bottom. Goodbye for now emerging markets.The S&P looks bulletproof right now, which is why Goldman raised its year end guidance to 4,700 (from ~4,440 now). That&apos;s never a good sign. What&apos;s more, mixed macro data stokes the ongoing debate around inflation and Fed policy response. Friday&apos;s favorable jobs report has the homies on real yield talking of a fall taper.Returning to the near term, underneath the S&P composite, the Nasdaq 100 is testing overbought territory, which might cascade into Carter Worth&apos;s expected seasonal sell-off. Aug-Sep-Oct is the worst 3 month period on average compared to other periods. Ethereum might have rallied this week as EIP 1559 triggers a frenzy, but what do the charts say ? Technicals suggest ETH is overbought, but it is eking out higher highs. We wait to see if resistance will stay broken. However, our dream of $1,500 to $1,600 is dead and buried. Bitcoin too edged above it&apos;s near term resistance, testing overbought territory. The upshot in Crypto: Wait a couple of weeks to see if we oscillate back to predictable lows. Overhead supply might put a cap on the surge. 

Ethereum Strikes Back & Our First NFT

For data visualization, please follow us on Twitter @DegenerateBiz The bond market moves the stock market...said someone...at some point. The 10 year treasury yield dipped suddenly on Monday to 1.18%, roiling all the major indices. But rates normalized back to 1.28% by Friday, and with it, the march higher to fresh all time highs. The drug fueled, Fed guaranteed bull market rages. But what triggered that rate action?None of that of course applies to Chinese equities. Just when we thought they couldn&apos;t get any worse, they keep descending into the sea. KWEB might be the worst chart we&apos;ve ever seen (chart below). For real though this time, is this an opportunity or the dumpster fire of 100 years? Some have made the case that Chinese technology multiples might be a generational steal. Doesn&apos;t feel like it now.And still we wait for Ethereum to grind down closer to ~$1,600 or worse to make our move (chart below). To support this thinking, Greg does a bootleg Carter Worth impression. &apos;Cause some have said, Ethereum will eventually break out to $20k...in 2031.Also in the realm of Crypto, Cathie Wood, Elon & Jack Dorsey record a meandering 1 hour conversation on Youtube to evangelize Bitcoin, sort of? Is this a conspiracy to salvage Bitcoin from $20k?

When Should We Buy More Ethereum?

We review the first half of 2021. What did we learn? What did we-unlearn? In the spirit of brevity, we listed out the key themes of 2021 so far. On Macroeconomics Corner:No one understands the bond market:No one knows if inflation is transitory or secular.  No one knows where treasury yields will go exactly (except Carter Worth).In Equities:The reflation trade became the everything trade. MegaCap Tech is like Tom Brady.  Emerging Markets have still not emerged. Growth still lies in the shade, victimized by turbulence in rates. In Crypto:Ethereum is still the best performing asset of 2021. 

The 2021 First Half Review

Just as the chart oracle Carter Worth predicted, Treasury yields fall. The 10 year yield touched 1.25% before bouncing on Friday to 1.35%. And yet the conventional macro wisdom insists that inflation is here and that yields will surprise to the upside. But what should we expect now and what does it mean for equities? And is the consensus view on inflation credible?Chinese autocrat Xi dunks on DiDi, sending Chinese tech into the sea. What is really going on here? What does it tell us about the power of big tech? And are Chinese longs worth the headache anymore? &apos;Cause right now they plain SUCK.Also as the great grind down continues in Crypto, Greg has renewed his conviction to buy more Bitcoin, convinced by none other than the godfather of laser eyes Michael Saylor. But why?

Are Chinese Stocks Worth It?

The jobs report drops favorably, adding kerosene to the everything bubble and capping a steady march for all the major indices.The 10-year yield stays flat to down at 1.439%.Bitcoin and Ethereum survive the weekend of death, while grinding down in a wilderness of bearish sentiment.In the world of Genomics future stuff, EDIT reclaims its place in the sun. But ARKG doesn&apos;t follow suit. What the?James finds joy in the short term on KRBN, the carbon trade ETF.Also if you&apos;re interested in trading ALT coins but don&apos;t know which, KROEF is an intriguing buy with an appetizing technical pattern. 

Genomic Stocks Rebound

The great Biden infrastructure bill comes to pass as the everything bubble marches on. Does it matter to equity prices? No, says the bond market with the 10 year treasury yield oscillating around 1.5%. So...stuff was already priced in, but might be a good thing for construction stocks.  Degenerate stock pick Roblox picks up 8% this week as the reflation trade merges into the everything trade. Speaking of things that don&apos;t make money, ARK continues its slow crawl back. We seem on track for a resurgence.  On crypto corner Bitcoin & with it Ethereum fell to soul crushing death-cross territory, touching $28k and $1.7k respectively, before rebounding somewhat. The crypto winter continues as China locks it down and the prospect of an ETF escapes 2021. Also Virgin Galactic gets approval to take humans to space. Would you go?

An Infrastructure Spree, The Everything Bubble & Crypto Winter

The Fed convenes, tending towards hawkishness and signaling they might raise rates sooner than expected. What followed? A correction in commodities and a surge in tech. Having missed the rally in Copper underpinned by the EV revolution, I ask the ignorant question, is this a buy and hold opportunity for CPER? Furthermore, I ask, will there ever be a good time to buy Gold as an inflation hedge. Or has it been supplanted by Bitcoin in this respect.We return to 10 year yields and the creator of charts, Carter Worth. His technical analysis suggests yields are likely to subside from 1.443% to 1.25% and bucking consensus. Thus are we poised for a breakout in Growth stocks (or am I dreaming). Then we turn to Crypto, where Mark Cuban was "rugged" by the de-fi token Titan. Tough one. But this is the way of the Crypto revolution.

Should you ever buy Commodities?

CNBC chart genius Carter Worth signals optimism for silver. and so James celebrates a return to grace. Plus Bobby&apos;s long position on IYR, the US Real Estate ETF. And speaking of comebacks, after months in the wilderness TIGR rebounds on the heels of meteoric YoY revenue growth. On that note, equities soldier on breathing some life into growth with bond prices falling for the 4th straight week.But things got weird this week in Crypto, when the encroaching Bear market was forestalled by two strange developments. Hot off the Miami bro-festival, featuring Jack Dorsey&apos;s votive to Bitcoin, Michael Saylor of Microstrategy issued $500M of junk bonds to buy more Bitcoin and El Salvador legalized Bitcoin as legal tender. What do we make of it? Also Amazon deploys Sidewalk, an adhoc mesh network that uses devices to create ubiquitous internet. Is this the end?

A Flicker in Growth Stocks & El Salvador Legalizes Bitcoin

Tired of the same dry, monotonous business news and the squawkery of stock tip television? Here at the Degenerate Business School, we aim to give you an irreverent take on the latest news, trends and forces in business. Plus we acknowledge openly that stock and currency trading is merely an exercise in degenerate, white-collar gambling. So why not take advice and counsel from a couple of amateurs like us?

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