Is the EU executing the decisive gear-shift that is needed to not only meet its own ambitious climate targets and agree on its vision for climate neutrality by 2050, but to successfully lead the way globally? Experts gathered at the Friends of Europe debate ‘Shifting gears: achieving climate neutrality by 2050’ – held in Brussels on 19 February – to assess where Europe is at, what it needs to do, where it’s going and whether it will arrive on time. Moderator and Director of Insights at Friends of Europe, Dharmendra Kanani said that with a new Commission in place and its ambitions stated via the European Green Deal, the imminent unveiling of the new European Climate Law, the assessment of member states’ National Energy and Climate Plans, and the COP26 coming up in Glasgow in November, it’s an interesting time for the climate agenda that has a “last chance saloon” feeling about it. “Everyone is really thinking of Glasgow as the tipping point that we should look forward to – but should it be, can it be, given all the different drivers that are at play, not least politics?” he said, adding that the constant re-negotiation of targets was delaying action. Participants heard perspectives from the International Energy Agency, the private sector’s Electricité de France (EDF), the European Commission Directorate-General for Energy, and Climate Action Network Europe. There was agreement that more needed to be done to create the conditions for consumers to more easily transition to renewable energy sources, and that Europe – which accounts for 9% of global CO2 emissions – must use its ambition to take an assertive leading role in getting other countries on board with tackling the climate emergency. More info: https://www.friendsofeurope.org/events/shifting-gears-achieving-climate-neutrality-by-2050/

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Shifting gears: achieving climate neutrality by 2050

The world energy market continues to experience major transformations: the rapidly falling cost of renewables and breakthrough innovations in energy use give reason to think that change is on the horizon. Organised at a time of critical leadership change in Europe, the presentation of the 2019 edition of the International Energy Agency’s flagship World Energy Outlook takes into account all the latest market and technology information, policy developments, as well as pathways to meet global climate and other sustainable development goals. This year’s outlook will provide the perfect opportunity to examine the potential way forward for achieving a climate neutral economy by 2050 and an ambitous European Green Deal, including the role of offshore wind as well as the importance of electricity and gas networks in a low-emissions future. Join IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol and key European leaders to hear how the outlook for global and European energy markets is set to evolve. What will tomorrow’s power sector look like in Europe? What share of our total energy needs can ultimately be met by offshore wind? How are traditional gas infrastructure projects adapting to today’s new policy environment? What can we expect from the new EU mandate and how will it help in achieving stronger climate action and energy security? PRESENTATION OF THE REPORT BY: Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) JOINED ON PANEL BY: Boyana Achovski, Secretary-General of Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) and Chair of GasNaturally Steering Committee Antonella Battaglini, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of the Renewables Grid Initiative Ditte Juul-Jørgensen, European Commission Director-General for Energy Andreas Nauen, Offshore Chief Executive Officer at Siemens Gamesa MODERATOR: Dharmendra Kanani, Director of Insights at Friends of Europe

World Energy Outlook 2019

As required by the EU Governance Regulation, every EU country must submit its final plans for achieving the 2030 targets on energy efficiency, renewables and greenhouse gas emissions. The plans – which cover the period of 2021-2030 – must be bold, comprehensive and inclusive, while considering Europe’s global competitiveness and trade interests. Not only will countries have to revise their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), they also have to propose alternative pathways that are in line with the EU 2050 long-term climate strategy. The financial sector will have to play a central role if we are to achieve bold transformation. Putting the financial sector at the service of the climate must become a priority, and standards of investment must be developed and implemented across all sectors. The private sector needs these incentives to make the right investments and support member states and the EU to achieve a net zero emissions economy. How can member states and industries better cooperate to develop the most ambitious National Energy and Climate Plans? What sort of disruptive industry leadership is required for Europe to go beyond its objectives? What role will the financial sector play in unlocking public and private capital to support a prosperous, secure and sustainable Europe? SPEAKERS Carine de Boissezon, Chief Sustainability Officer at EDF Matthias Duwe, Head of Climate at the Ecologic Institute Annegret Groebel, Director of International Relations at the German Regulatory Authority for Electricity, Gas, Telecommunications, Post and Railway (BNetzA); President of the Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER) Andrew McDowell, Vice-President of the European Investment Bank (EIB) Leena Ylä-Mononen, Director-General at the Ministry of Environment of Finland MODERATOR Dharmendra Kanani, Director of Insights at Friends of Europe

Session III – Achieving bold EU national E&C plans through inclusiveness and sustainable finance

The urgency of the climate crisis is impossible to brush off. Even if we wanted to ignore the extreme weather events that have plagued the planet recently, Greta Thunberg, along with hundreds of thousands of students from across Europe, have been making sure that we don’t. While the momentum for action is increasing across the board, civil society is clearly leading the charge, showing more enthusiasm than governments and industries combined. To effectively fulfil the goals of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, everyone must however be on board and give it their all. Nevertheless, too few EU countries are considering revising their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to comply with science-based targets. When will the leaders of our world stop acting ‘like children’ and take the radical decisions needed to avoid environmental collapse? How can we further mobilise political and economic actors to comply with the Paris Agreement and 2030 SDGs? Will the private sector pay heed to voices from civil society asking for more transparency and actions to avert the climate crisis? SPEAKERS Mark Fulton, Chair of the Research Council at Carbon Tracker Michal Kurtyka, Secretary of State at the Polish Ministry of the Environment, and President of COP24 Mauro Petriccione, European Commission Director-General for Climate Action Linda Steg, Professor of Environmental Psychology in the Faculty of Behavioural Sciences at the University of Groningen Valentino Rossi, Head of Public Affairs, Regulation and Antitrust for Europe and Euro-Mediterranean Affairs at Enel MODERATOR Dharmendra Kanani, Director of Insights at Friends of Europe

Session I – Out with the old, in with the bold: there's an opportunity in the climate crisis

Previous years have seen tremendous advancements in the rollout of new socially-driven technologies aimed at empowering citizens to become prosumers. As the ‘yellow vests’ movement highlights, citizens are asking for more social justice and argue that industry remains the privileged player. At the same time, some EU industries protest that current energy and climate policies may hinder their competitiveness and investment attractiveness. Europe’s Energy Union has left a legacy for the next mandate – a legacy which has the potential to allow for Europe’s full decarbonisation. For this to happen, it is time to close the policy book and start implementing measures that are socially just and inclusive while maintaining the competitiveness of Europe’s industry sector. What can be done to ensure that industry remains competitive while avoiding a social backlash? Are current policies effective in supporting the integration of citizens within energy systems or do we have to move in another direction? How can we ensure a level playing field so that all actors – companies and citizens – can benefit from the transition to a low-carbon economy? SPEAKERS Olivier Biancarelli, Executive Vice-President of Impact and Customer Solutions at ENGIE; Chief Executive Officer of Tractebel Stephanie Brancaforte, Executive Director at Change.org, Italy Olivier Grabette, Executive Vice-President of the Réseau de Transport d'Électricité (RTE) Mark Radka, Brand Chief of Energy, Climate and Technology in the Economy Division at UN Environment Maria Spyraki MEP, Member of the Committee on Industry, Research and Energy at the European Parliament MODERATOR Dharmendra Kanani, Director of Insights at Friends of Europe

Session II – Energy justice and the industry competitiveness: a mutually beneficial partnership

The EU has already made great progress on the treatment of rare diseases. However, persistent gaps remain. Of the 5000 to 8000 rare diseases that exist in the EU, 95% do not have an effective therapy. On top of that, about a quarter of orphan drugs fail to reach marketing authorisation. Our 2017 debate on the subject revealed that budget pressures, bureaucratic obstacles and problems of scale are preventing rare disease patients from getting the treatment they need. During this lunch debate, we want to explore how the EU can move from evidence and incentives to equal access to new medicines for patients across the different health systems in the EU.

Equal access to care for rare diseases

Greater EU strategic autonomy in defence and security is bound to be met with mixed reactions. While leaders in France, Germany and Spain have endorsed an EU army, transatlantic allies have rejected the idea. What are the perspectives from outside of the EU on the talks of a greater European strategic autonomy? Old alliances are being tested through the recent rise of protectionist stances and new “strongmen” around the globe. This has prompted EU leaders to look for further defence cooperation within the Union, but how is this seen by outsiders? NATO would certainly benefit from European allies shouldering more of the responsibility for defence, yet Russia has welcomed an EU army that could possibly diminish NATO’s collective effectiveness. Unlike the US and Russia, other global powers, such as China, seem to see the EU solely as an economic player rather than a significant international security actor. A shift in old alliances could redefine the EU’s relationship with other global and regional powers. A greater European strategic autonomy may also demand that the EU takes on a greater role in today’s global hotspots. The EU’s ability to generate influence in an ever-more complex geopolitical order is likely to be tested in the next decade. • How are old, critical alliances changing? Would an increased European strategic autonomy affect current alliances? • In this turbulent era for the transatlantic relationship, can shouldering more responsibility for defence in Europe help bridge the current divide? • To what extent would a more ambitious EU global strategy clash or align with Russian and Chinese geopolitical interests? Perspecitves from: Europe: Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) China: Yan Yan, Director of the Research Center of Oceans Law and Policy, National Institute for the South China Sea Studies (NISCSS) Russia: Andrey Kelin, Director of the Department for the European Cooperation of the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs United States: Ambassador Christopher Hill, Chief Advisor to the Chancellor for Global Engagement and former US Ambassador to Iraq (2009-2010) Moderated by Paul Taylor, Senior Fellow, Friends of Europe

Session II: EU Security And Defence In A Wider World

The 2019 EU elections pose a new test for those seeking greater European strategic autonomy. Considerable gains for populist parties could see a change in the EU’s approach to defence and its geopolitical aspirations as a whole. On the other hand, pro-European coalitions could lead to the development of more autonomous enterprises such as the European Intervention Initiative. Furthermore, the question remains whether European countries can keep up with promises to increase their defence spending to levels that meet NATO standards. While full-throated calls for an EU army seem to have quieted, there continues to be support for efforts that seek greater European strategic autonomy. The EU’s geopolitical ambitions are likely to face pressure from both inside and outside the EU, from both EU countries that fear losing American support and NATO allies warning of the dangers of duplicating common efforts. Questions on what does European autonomy mean and look like, as well as concerns over how can this be achieved are not likely to go away any time soon. • What is European strategic autonomy? What is the level of ambition needed to meet the EU’s own interests? • On capabilities: Who has them? Can they be pooled and shared? And, what are the key capabilities still missing? • What practical implications can the results of the recent elections have on European defence cooperation? Speakers: General Fernando Alejandre Martínez, Chief of the Defence, Spain Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, former Secretary General of NATO and Trustee of Friends of Europe Jüri Luik, Minister of Defence, Estonia Natalia Pouzyreff, Secretary of the Defence Committee, National Assembly, France Moderated by Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe

Session I: European Strategic Autonomy – What, where and how?

In a time when Europe is divided and geopolitical tensions are high, North Macedonia has delivered on its promises. By reaching the Prespa Agreement with Greece and normalising relations with Bulgaria, it has bolstered its efforts to join the EU and NATO. That was the main conclusion that participants reached during Friends of Europe’s ‘Conversation With’ the President of North Macedonia Stevo Pendarovski. President Pendarovski stressed the importance of his country’s new agreements with its neighbours and the citizens’ support for the Prespa Agreement in a recent referendum. He also reminded the audience that his country is making great strides to better reflect its multi-ethnic identity – elevating the Albanian language to co-official language status and receiving a large backing from multi-ethnic political parties. However, President Pendarovski also warned that this is far from over. He wants to see EU accession negotiations start before the end of the year. Despite some EU member states expressing doubts about accession talks, he remains optimistic and reminded everyone that no EU member state has really positioned itself against North Macedonia’s accession. When asked if he had a plan B to the EU, he said “my plan B is EU accession”, thus reiterating his commitment to making North Macedonia the next EU member state. He also hopes that North Macedonia will become the Alliance’s 30th member before the next NATO summit in London. When asked if NATO was perhaps suffering from enlargement fatigue, he recalled that “fatigue goes both ways”, as Skopje is also tired of waiting. Failing to deliver on promises could leave many of those who voted in favour of the Prespa Agreement disillusioned. When asked if any agreements with neighbouring countries could be threatened by EU inaction, President Pendarovski told the audience that reconciliation initiatives are already in motion with Bulgaria and that he is confident the upcoming Greek parliamentary elections won’t change current relations or the Prespa Agreement. Find out more at the event page: https://www.friendsofeurope.org/events/north-macedonia-and-its-quest-for-euro-atlantic-integration/

North Macedonia and its quest for Euro-Atlantic Integration

In March 2019, the European Parliament voted in favour of a motion that would phase out a number of single-use plastic items across the EU by 2021. The new law sets a 90% collection target for plastic bottles by 2029, committing Member States to this goal. Furthermore, plastic bottles will have to contain at least 30% recycled content by 2030. The European Parliament, alongside several forward-looking Member States, is taking the first steps towards the establishment of a circular plastics economy. While the focus should remain on reducing the use of plastics, plastic waste should also be accounted for. Replacing single-use plastics with innovative alternatives presents the EU with a significant opportunity, given that 95% of the value resulting from plastics production is lost to the economy, amounting to a loss of somewhere between €70bn and €105bn per year. However, the demand for recycled plastics in Europe today stands at only 6%. Therefore, the EU must develop a more robust recycling framework that encourages its industries to produce more responsibly. Questions include: How can the Circular Plastics Alliance help in developing the right framework to stimulate a circular plastics economy? How can countries and companies create incentives to collect and reuse plastics? How can Europe lead the way on the recycling of plastics? Speakers include: Jyrki Katainen, European Commission Vice-President for Jobs, Growth, Investment and Competitiveness André Abreu, Head for International Policy at Tara Expéditions Foundation Igor Chauvelot, Plastic Circular Economy Director at Danone Wytske van der Mei, Head of Unit for Resource Efficiency at the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management Moderated by: Dharmendra Kanani, Director of Insights at Friends of Europe

Sharpening EU Leadership in Plastics Recycling

What should be in the policy toolbox for the new EU Mandate? Citizens are calling for a different and better Europe more aligned to their needs and their inclusion. Uncertainty and unpredictability appear to be the new order of the day, and are upturning the certainties that policy-makers have held for decades. The EU is in a delicate balance and the choices that it makes now will be decisive in setting its path for years to come. But there is a silver lining. The big message from the 11,000 people we surveyed is that with a shift in focus, Europe can still matter to them. Citizens want a renewed social contract that promotes economic growth, peace, security and sustainability for all – a contract that can be the glue that binds together citizens, government, the private sector and civil society in the belief that Europe matters, and that a strong, united Europe can deliver the right responses to take on the challenges we all face. Citizens want a new ‘Vision for Europe’. Friends of Europe will present its ‘Vision for Europe’ report setting out 10 ambitious policy recommendations and a pathway for the next EU leadership. This report aims to map the road ahead on how to construct a Europe fit for purpose in the 21st century. Can the EU increase citizen participation and harness the potential of technology to open markets and secure inclusive and sustainable growth? Will it take measurable action to preserve the planet and make better use of resources? How will Europe rethink its relations with its neighbours and better explore mutually advantageous solutions to international issues? More importantly, can the EU implement a renewed social contract that puts citizens’ needs at the forefront of its priorities? What can it do to make itself matter in the future? Presentation of the New Vision for Europe by Pascal Lamy, Trustee of Friends of Europe, Honorary President of Notre Europe - Jacques Delors Institute, and Former Director General of the World Trade Organisation Interventions from the ‘Vision for Europe’ authors: Alberto Alemanno, EU Law Professor HEC, Founder of the Good Lobby and European Young Leader Caroline de Gruyter, Author and EU Correspondent at NRC Handelsblad Jakob Haesler, Founder of Project Alloy and European Young Leader Martin Porter, Executive Chair at Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL) Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe and Former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO (2010-2018) And reactions from member states and political parties: Evelyn Huytebroeck, Member of European Green Party Committee Andrea Vitolo, First Counselor to the Diplomatic Advisor to Giuseppe Conte, Prime Minister of Italy Moderated by Dharmendra Kanani, Director of Insights at Friends of Europe Read the 'Vision for Europe' publication here: https://www.friendsofeurope.org/sites/default/files/media-files/foe_vision-for-europe_web.pdf

LAUNCHING A NEW 'VISION FOR EUROPE'

Fabrice Pothier is Senior advisor at Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity; Senior consulting fellow at Institute of Strategic and International Studies and Chief Strategy Officer at Rasmussen Global

Fabrice Pothier on Deep Fake

The world energy sector is experiencing major transformations. Energy markets and the climate crisis are important, but governments will drive energy decisions as most investments are government-driven, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said at the official 27 November launch of the World Energy Outlook 2018 report – regarded as the “gold standard in energy analysis”. “Our energy destiny rests with governments,” Birol told the Brussels conference hosted by leading think-tank Friends of Europe. Indeed, some $42.3 trillion is needed for energy supply to 2040. Over 70% of the $2 trillion required each year in energy supply investment either comes from “state-directed entities” or receives “a full or partial revenue guarantee”, he explained. The remaining 30% is driven by the market. The IEA World Energy Outlook reveals the latest energy trends and the implications of different pathways on global climate goals, energy security and geopolitics. “We chose electricity as the focus this year,” Birol said, highlighting that not only is electricity demand set to grow at twice the pace of total energy demand, its share in final consumption will increase towards one third by 2040. Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission Vice-President for the Energy Union, on the eve of presenting the Commission’s landmark “Clean Planet for All” decarbonisation strategy for 2050, agreed electrification, supported by better regional cooperation and greater flexibility, was important for the energy transition and to achieve Europe’s climate targets. The key was also to progress much faster in transport – where electricity – notably in the huge growth in electric cars and buses – again plays a central role. But while electrification has “huge potential”, it could not stop greenhouse gases emissions, that in 2018 reached a new “historic high”, the IEA chief said. With Birol calling for “much more effort in terms of lower carbon technologies,” the report concludes there is no single emissions solution: “Renewables, efficiency and a host of innovative technologies, including storage, CCUS and hydrogen, are all required.” This message was supported by Francesco Gattei, Executive Vice-President for Scenarios, Strategic Options and Investor Relations at global energy company Eni, and Olivier Grabette, Executive Vice-President at French Transmission System Operator (TSO) RTE. They both emphasized respectively, “there is no perfect energy source, each has its pros and cons” and “decentralisation is very important and we do not have to oppose decentralisation and building a strong Energy Union at European level through the development of interconnections, we need all of this." Imke Lübbleke, WWF Europe Climate and Energy Head of Unit concluded by saying “We are very much looking forward to the net-zero commitment from the European Commission which should provide a strong emphasis and strong guidance to leaders where investments have to go.”

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2018

Access to the world’s shared water resources is inextricably linked to socio-political and economic ‘power dynamics’ that impact hugely on people’s lives and livelihoods. This was one of the key messages of Friends of Europe’s 25 March Policy Insight debate “The ripple effect: water as a tool for peace and sustainable development”. As we prepare for the “changing of the guard” in the EU “we have a topic that’s so essential for world peace that we should keep it high up on the agenda,” said Shada Islam, Friends of Europe’s Director for Europe & Geopolitics. With 40% of armed conflicts involving a resource-based stress factor, Head of Division for Economic and Global Issues at the European External Action Service (EEAS) Dominic Porter highlighted that there is growing acknowledgement that water is more than just a development issue. “There is a gradually increasing acceptance that these subjects need to be treated at the highest political level. They contribute to, if not cause, threats to international peace and security,” he said. Naho Mirumachi, Lead of King’s Water research hub and Senior Lecturer at King's College London, said it was vital to remember that conflict wasn’t necessarily driven by a lack of water resources. Warning practitioners to beware “the binary trap of thinking of water as a tool for peace or a tool for war”, she suggested that they consider the “socioeconomic power dynamics that make it easy for some people to access water and others to have to bear the burden.” But while competition over this vital resource can generate friction and conflict, water diplomacy can also be used to help broker peace and cooperation and, crucially, should aim to make a tangible difference to ordinary citizens. President of the India-based Strategic Foresight Group Sundeep Waslekar set out the three factors which define good practice in transboundary water cooperation: “There is a strong institutional mechanism. There is engagement of political leaders at the highest level. And this institutional structure and the engagement of top political leaders are used to make a real difference for the people.” Therese Noorlander, Sustainability Director for Europe at The Coca-Cola Company, noted that the private sector also has a role to play in taking a people-centred approach to water resource management, saying that while they “cannot fix the politics, by working on a local level and trying to add value for communities… we can help out and make the right investments that really help build those communities.”

THE RIPPLE EFFECT: Water as a tool for peace and sustainable development

When a country’s security is threatened, UN peacekeepers must intervene only after politicians have exhausted all possibilities for conflict prevention. This key conclusion emerged in the first debate in a new series of ‘Lessons from history’, held in Brussels by Friends of Europe on 19 March 2019. Featuring three peace and security experts, focused on UN operations in Africa, the event aimed to better prepare for future crises. “We can learn lessons from UN peacekeeping operations in Africa, home to around half the UN’s work in that field,” said the moderator Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow, Friends of Europe and former Deputy Assistant Secretary General at NATO. He wanted to look at Rwanda and Liberia, respectively considered as a failure and success in UN peacekeeping. What more can the EU and NATO do to support peacekeeping on this continent and beyond? All three panellists agreed that countries and peacekeepers must prioritise the prevention of conflicts, with intervention only a last resort. That is more important than ever, noted Alice Musabende – a survivor of the 1994 Rwanda genocide and now an academic at Cambridge University – because conflicts are increasingly complex and involve new peacekeepers such as China. “Rwanda was the greatest failure in UN history, but it was not a UN failure, it was ours,” said Linda Melvern, Investigative Journalist and former consultant to the ‘Military One’ trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR). She said some UN peacekeepers had tried their best to defend the Tutsi population during the genocide. However there was a shocking lack of accountability from UN member states and decision-makers for the UN’s withdrawal in April 1994 from most of its peacekeeping operation (UNAMIR) in the country. Even today, many of the peacekeepers involved have not been properly debriefed. Rwanda did lead to the African Union (AU) taking more responsibility for intervening in the continent’s conflicts, added Ms Musabende. However, the AU is still under-resourced and mainly relies on funding from the EU, hence the importance of partnerships like this in peacekeeping. Rory Keane, Head of the UN Liaison Office for Peace and Security in Brussels (UNLOPS), noted that Rwanda and other conflicts had also led to reforms in the UN. These include better pre-deployment training for peacekeepers, plus a merger of the peace operations and political teams. The 15-year UN peacekeeping mission in Liberia ended in March 2018 and is roundly considered a success story. For Mr Keane, it underlined the value of a long-term investment in peace, having an exit strategy (the UN lacked this in Libya, leading to chaos and instability) and linking UN operations with local structures. He also said women played a vital role in the peace process, backed later by a female UN peacekeeping force from India. As for the EU, panellists praised its partnership with UN peacekeepers and its security capacity building, among other assets. According to Ms Musabende, Europeans and others must also stop “meddling in Africa and learn to listen more to what Africans themselves want in times of conflict.” The factsheet is available here: https://www.friendsofeurope.org/publication/securing-future-lessons-history-1

SECURING THE FUTURE: LESSONS FROM HISTORY #1 Peace is the mission

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