In this episode, Dmitri Trenin joins Rudra Chaudhuri to discuss the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Together, they take a closer look at the current impasse and the geopolitics shaping it. With more than 100,000 Russian troops stationed near Ukraine's northern and eastern borders, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is getting more tense. The United States has deployed nearly 2000 additional troops to Poland. 1000 more troops have been moved from Germany to Romania, along Ukraine’s western borders. As far as Russia’s concerned, 30,000 troops have been deployed to Belarus, where they begin military exercises on the 10th of February. French President Macron met with President Putin, hoping to find a diplomatic solution to the current impasse. On the other hand, President Putin and President Xi Jing Ping held the 38th personnel meeting in China.What are Moscow’s demands? What has the Biden administration missed? Is there any room for a renewed strategic framework between Russia and the west? Is another Helsinki final act even possible?   Episode Contributors: Dmitri Trenin is the Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. He chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program. In 1993, he retired from the Russian army. He served in the Soviet and Russian armed forces between 1972 and 1993, including as a liaison officer in the external relations branch of the Group of Soviet Forces and as a staff member of the delegation to the U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms talks in Geneva from 1985 to 1991. He also taught at the War Studies Department of the Military Institute.Rudra Chaudhuri is the Director of Carnegie India. His primary research interests include the diplomatic history of South Asia and contemporary security issues. Further ReadingAre We On the Brink of War? An Interview With Dmitri TreninWhat a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West Revealed by Dmitri TreninWhat Putin Really Wants in Ukraine by Dmitri TreninRussia-India: From Rethink to Adjust to Upgrade by Dmitri TreninShastri-Ayub Tashkent Pact Ended 1965 War. And Brought Russia into South Asian Politics by Rudra Chaudhuri

Interpreting India

Discussing Russia-Ukraine Tensions with Dmitri Trenin

In this episode, Arvind Subramanian joins Suyash Rai to discuss the rise and fall of India's economic growth. The pandemic has been costly for the Indian economy, delaying India's journey to prosperity by at least two years. But even before the pandemic, India's economy wasn't necessarily in the best shape. The official GDP estimates show a sharp slowdown since 2017, and investments and exports--the major drivers of growth--have been sluggish through much of the decade preceding the pandemic. How can we assess India's economic growth? Which indicators and factors are the most useful? What are some of the challenges and opportunities that India faces today? Arvind Subramanian is the Former Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, having served between 2014 and 2018. He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. Previously, he served as Professor of Economics at Ashoka University and a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Center for Global Development. He is a widely cited expert on the economics of India, China, and the changing balance of global economic power. Suyash Rai is Deputy Director and a Fellow at Carnegie India. His research focuses on the political economy of economic reforms and the performance of public institutions in India.Further Reading:Understanding Economic Development: A Reading List by Arvind SubramanianIndia's Turn: Understanding the Economic Transformation by Arvind SubramanianOf Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy by Arvind SubramanianBudget 2021: The Ghosts of the Past, Present and Future  by Suyash Rai

Understanding the Rise and Fall of India's Economic Growth with Arvind Subramanian

In this episode, Tanvi Ratna, CEO of Policy 4.0, joins  Priyadarshini, Associate Fellow, Carnegie India, to discuss the cryptocurrency space in India. World over, cryptocurrencies have reached a market capitalization of more than 2.5 trillion dollars in a little over a decade, since Satoshi Nakamoto--the person(s) who remain anonymous to this day--released the white paper on Bitcoin and set off this wild ride. In early 2020, the Supreme Court overturned the Reserve Bank of India’s ban on cryptocurrency transactions in India. Following this decision, cryptocurrency purchases in the country have soared.  But the rapid rise in cryptocurrencies has met with concern from the government and regulators especially due to their price volatility and lack of transparency. In the last month itself, the squid-game token fiasco led to massive losses for the investors of this cryptocurrency.  In recognition of these concerns, the union government will soon introduce a bill which seeks to ban all private cryptocurrencies, in favor of a public digital currency.Tune in to know what sort of investors characterize India’s cryptocurrency space? How could a renewed ban on all private cryptocurrencies play out? And finally, what does the global growth of cryptocurrencies indicate for the future of India’s financial system?-- Global Technology Summit 2021In case you enjoyed the discussion, be sure to register at GTS2021.COM for Carnegie India's Global Technology Summit 2021, where we'll be hosting many such discussions with experts and decision-makers on encryption, cryptocurrencies, data protection, the QUAD, AUKUS, and much more! -- To Follow our Work:  Website: www.carnegieindia.orgTwitter:  www.twitter.com/carnegieindiaFacebook: www.facebook.com/CarnegieIndia/Youtube: www.youtube.com/c/CarnegieIndia/videos  

India's Cryptocurrency Space with Tanvi Ratna

In this episode, Deep Pal joins Shibani Mehta to delve deep into China’s influence in South Asia.  In recent years, China’s engagement in South Asia has expanded significantly beyond commercial and development projects to encompass political and security interests. While this interaction often targets the needs of specific countries, even states with relatively robust state institutions and civil society struggle to grapple with the implications of China’s expanded footprint. Those without strong governance remain even more vulnerable to external interference in national affairs. China’s meteoric economic rise has resulted in a massive expansion in its international economic aid and development programs. China is thus emerging as an attractive alternative to the established players in the global development space, such as the IMF and the World Bank. However, analysts suggest that development aid is often unsustainable for the host country, creating onerous debt obligations while making only marginal contributions to local employment.   How has China's profile as a key economic partner developed in the South Asian region? What impact has China’s economic aid had on its political influence in the region? And finally, how should India respond to China’s economic clout in South Asia? Deep Pal is a visiting scholar in the Asia program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is also a non-resident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). Before this, he has worked with NBR, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., and at the Institute of International Relations in Taipei, Taiwan. He also has a decade’s experience as a broadcast journalist for some of the most-watched television stations in India. Deep has recently authored the report ‘China’s Influence in South Asia: Vulnerabilities and Resilience in Four Countries’.  Twitter: @DeepPal_Shibani Mehta is a research analyst with the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. Her research focuses on India’s security and foreign policies. Twitter: @mehtasaurusReferences: China’s Influence in South Asia: Vulnerabilities and Resilience in Four Countries by Deep Pal --To Follow our Work:  Website: www.carnegieindia.org Twitter:  www.twitter.com/carnegieindia Facebook: www.facebook.com/CarnegieIndia/ Youtube: www.youtube.com/c/CarnegieIndia/videos  

China's Influence in South Asia with Deep Pal

In this episode, Matthew D. Green joins Udbhav Tiwari to delve into the debate surrounding end-to-end encryption. In February, the Indian government issued new rules requiring companies like WhatsApp to implement traceability in their end-to-end encrypted communications platforms. The decision originated from the government’s concerns about the proliferation of illegal activities on these services, including terrorism, child-abuse, and the spread of fake news. India’s actions come amidst a growing global debate concerning government access to encrypted data. While advocates claim that state access to end-to-end encrypted messages benefits national security, opponents argue that it constitutes a dangerous breach of privacy, while worsening cybersecurity standards.  Is it possible to apply traceability without impacting the core benefits of end-to-end encryption? Could India’s adoption of this requirement hamper the cybersecurity of the country? And finally, how will the growing concerns about this system impact the future of encryption technology?  Matthew Green is an associate professor of computer science at Johns Hopkins University. He is a nationally recognized expert on applied cryptography and cryptographic engineering. He is one of the creators of the Zerocash protocol, which is used by the Zcash cryptocurrency, and is also a founder of the encryption startup Zeutro. Twitter: @matthew_d_greenUdbhav Tiwari is  a public policy advisor for Mozilla and a  nonresident fellow at Carnegie India. Twitter: @udbhav_tiwariFurther Reading:A Few Thoughts on Cryptographic Engineering by Matthew Green (Blog)Carnegie Publications on the Encryption Debate Across the World:Understanding the Encryption Debate in India by Anirudh Burman and Prateek JhaThe Encryption Debate in India: 2021 Update by Trisha RayThe Encryption Debate in China: 2021 Update by Lorand Laskai,  Adam SegalThe Encryption Debate in Brazil: 2021 Update  by Priscilla Silva, Ana Lara Mangeth,  Christian PerroneThe Encryption Debate in Australia: 2021 Update by StilgherrianThe Encryption Debate in Germany: 2021 Update by Sven Herpif, Julia SchuetzeThe Encryption Debate in the European Union: 2021 Update by Maria Koomen--To Follow our Work: Website: www.carnegieindia.orgTwitter:  www.twitter.com/carnegieindiaFacebook: www.facebook.com/CarnegieIndia/Youtube: www.youtube.com/c/CarnegieIndia/videos  

The Encryption Debate with Matthew D. Green

In this episode, Shanthie Mariet D'Souza joins Shibani Mehta to analyze the question of aid and development in a Taliban led Afghanistan. The Western withdrawal from Afghanistan and the ensuing ascent of the Taliban has led to the collapse of the Afghan economy. The foreign aid, crucial towards sustaining the economy, has mostly stopped, resulting in food shortages, a decline in the value of local currency and a collapsing health system. While $1.2 billion has been pledged by international donors, it remains unclear whether this will be sufficient in restoring any semblance of normalcy in Afghanistan. How will aid to Afghanistan be structured after the ascent of the Taliban government? How will India, a key development partner in Afghanistan, approach its aid policy in the wake of the Taliban takeover? And finally, what will this situation mean for the future of Afghanistan’s development?  Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is the founder and president of Mantraya, an independent research forum that seeks to make constructive contributions in the realm of strategy, innovation and alternatives. She is also a founding professor at the Kautilya School of Public Policy, at GITAM University, Hyderabad.  Shibani Mehta is a research analyst with the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. Her research focuses on India’s security and foreign policies.Further ReadingNo Time to Lose on Afghanistan by Shanthie Mariet D'Souza Interview: Shanthie Mariet D’Souza on how India was ‘ill-prepared’ for the dramatic Taliban takeover  by Rohan  Venkataramakrishnan 

Aid and Development in a Taliban-Led Afghanistan with Shanthie Mariet D'Souza

 With the conclusion of the first in-person QUAD leaders’ summit, the 76th Session of the UNGA, the SCO summit, and the AUKUS alliance, the last two weeks have been momentous for world politics. In this episode of Interpreting India, Gautam Bambawale joins Deep Pal to discuss the major foreign policy events of the last two weeks and India’s contribution to them. How will the AUKUS alliance impact the QUAD and India in specific? How will the events of last week determine the international community’s response to the Taliban? And finally, what significance do these events hold for the future of Indian foreign policy?   Gautam Bambawale is an Indian diplomat. He has served as India's Ambassador to Bhutan, Pakistan, and China. Deep Pal is a visiting fellow in the Asia program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

The QUAD, SCO, AUKUS, and UNGA: Discussing India's Position in World Politics with Gautam Bambawale

In this episode, Rumi Aijaz joins Anirudh Burman to discuss Delhi’s new Draft Master Plan, 2041.  How has it improved upon the shortcomings of the preceding master plans? How does it compare with the planning process across other cities in India?  In July, the Delhi Development Authority released the draft Master Plan 2041, making it the fourth master plan released for the city since the start of this process in 1957. It follows the city’s Master Plan 2021, which aimed to make Delhi a global metropolis and a world-class city. However, it was criticized for its reduced responsiveness to the needs of low-income communities and its inability to meet targets on time. The Master Plan Delhi 2041 also comes after the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic that devastated the health and sanitation resources of the city.  In this episode, this episode discusses if  Delhi's new Draft Master Plan 2041 is able to overcome some of the shortcomings of the previous master plans. Rumi Aijaz is a senior fellow at Observer Research Foundation, where he is responsible for the Urban Policy Research Initiative. His research focuses on building a better understanding of urban issues to produce new and correct knowledge for managing urban growth in India. Anirudh Burman is an associate research director and fellow at Carnegie India. He works on key issues relating to public institutions, public administration, the administrative and regulatory state, and state capacity.References and Further Reading: Delhi's Draft Master Plan 2041 Delhi Development AuthorityDelhi Master Plan 2021–41: Towards a People’s City? by Rumi AijazThe Smart Cities Mission in Delhi, 2015-2019: An Evaluation by Rumi AijazLand Title Insurance in India: Lessons from U.S. Regulatory Approaches by Anirudh Burman 

Discussing Delhi's Draft Master Plan 2041 with Rumi Aijaz

In this episode of Interpreting India, Avinash Paliwal and Thomas Ruttig join Deep Pal to analyze the present situation in Afghanistan, what the implications of the U.S. withdrawal might be, and what this might mean for India and other countries involved.  Episode Background:The withdrawal of the United States and its NATO allies from Afghanistan has led to concerns over the Kabul government’s ability to survive in the face of an aggressive Taliban onslaught. The peace process, which the U.S. had initiated between the Taliban and the Afghan government, has also stalled without achieving a settlement. While President Ghani has asserted that the government forces are prepared to meet the challenges that the withdrawal presents, analysts remain pessimistic about the possibilities.  Episode Contributors:Avinash Paliwal is a senior lecturer in International Relations and deputy director of the SOAS South Asia Institute | Twitter: @PaliwalAviThomas Ruttig is co-founder and co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network | Twitter: @thruttigDeep Pal is a visiting fellow in the Asia program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Twitter: @DeepPal_Episode Timestamps: 2:26 The Current Situation and Prospects for Peace8:48 On the Possibility of a Power-Sharing Agreement 16:01 The Taliban and its Factions, and the India-Pakistan Dyad54:58 On the Role of Other  Countries and Players57:40  Where is the Conflict Headed?Further Reading: A Troika of Four: Looking back at the March 2021 Afghanistan meeting in Moscow by Thomas RuttigAfghanistan After the US Withdrawal: An Elusive Peace by Thomas RuttigEngaging with the Taliban is Necessary by Avinash PaliwalSino twist to Af-Pak puzzle: Given China’s Forays, India’s Afghanistan Strategy Must Look at Iran, Taliban, and Even Pakistan  by Avinash PaliwalMy Enemy's Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US by Avinash Paliwal 

Discussing Afghanistan after the U.S. Withdrawal with Avinash Paliwal and Thomas Ruttig

In this episode, Rajeswari Sengupta joins Suyash Rai to evaluate the health of India’s financial sector. Together, they assess the impact of the second wave on India's financial sector. What measures can be taken to address some of its main issues? And finally, what does the health of the financial sector mean for the broader economy? Rajeswari Sengupta is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR) in Mumbai, India. In the past she has held research positions at the Institute for Financial Management and Research (IFMR) in Chennai, the Reserve Bank of India, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington D.C. Suyash Rai is a Fellow at Carnegie India. His research focuses on the political economy of economic reforms and the performance of public institutions in India.References:Non-performing Assets in Indian Banks by Rajeswari Sengupta and Harsh VardhanRegime changes in Indias monetary policy and Tenures of RBI governors by Rajeswari Sengupta and Utso Pal Mustafi  

Evaluating the Health of India's Financial Institutions with Rajeswari Sengupta

Zaha Hassan and Nicolas Blarel join Carnegie India's Shibani Mehta to discuss the Israel-Palestine conflict. On May 10th, a raid on the Al Aqsa mosque by the Israeli police left hundreds of Palestinians injured. This cascaded into a war between Israel and Hamas. The ensuing violence has led to hundreds of casualties. A tenuous ceasefire has for now halted the violence, but it is likely that it will significantly change the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Already, several analysts have alleged that the violence marks the death knell for the already fragile peace process and the two-state solution. Other scholars point to the growing embrace of more radical solutions to the conflict in both the Israeli and the Palestinian side. This episode of Interpreting India assesses some of the broader effects of the present conflict. What does it mean for the two-state solution and the peace process? How has the international society and India reacted to the crisis? And finally, what shall be its likely impact on the future of the Arab-Israeli conflict?  Zaha Hassan is a human rights lawyer and visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her research focus is on Palestine-Israel peace, the use of international legal mechanisms by political movements, and U.S. foreign policy in the region. Previously, she was the coordinator and senior legal advisor to the Palestinian negotiating team during Palestine’s bid for UN membership, and was a member of the Palestinian delegation to Quartet-sponsored exploratory talks between 2011 and 2012. She regularly participates in track II peace efforts.Nicolas Blarel is Associate Professor of International Relations at Leiden University in The Netherlands. He studies foreign and security policy-making, the politics of power transition in global politics, the politics of migration governance, and the international politics of South Asia. He has previously worked with the French Foreign Ministry’s policy planning staff (Centre d’Analyses, de Prévision, et de Stratégie) and has been a visiting fellow at various research institutions.Shibani Mehta is a Research Analyst at Carnegie India.Further Reading:Bringing Assistance to Israel in Line With Rights and U.S. Laws by Zaha Hassan, Salih Booker, and Josh RuebnerModi looks West? Assessing change and continuity in India’s Middle East policy since 2014 by Nicolas BlarelBreaking the Israel-Palestine Status Quo by Zaha Hassan, Daniel Levy, Hallaamal Keir, and Marwan MuasherAn Indian return to the Gaza strip? New Delhi has unique legitimacy to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by Nicolas Blarel and Sumit Ganguly

Understanding the Israel-Palestine Conflict with Zaha Hassan and Nicolas Blarel

Alex Tabarrok joins Anirudh Burman to discuss if the existing law on patents is affecting India’s ability to vaccinate its citizens. As India battles a devastating second wave of Covid-19, many advocate for a waiver of intellectual property rights on coronavirus vaccines. However, some argue that this might be an incomplete solution; on its own, a TRIPS waiver would do little to alleviate the problem. In this episode, we understand the logic behind the proposal for the TRIPS waiver, and what must be done to globally increase vaccine supplies. Alex Tabarrok holds the Bartley J. Madden Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center and is a professor of economics at George Mason University. Anirudh Burman is an associate fellow at Carnegie India. References:Patents are Not the Problem! by Alex TabarrokPatent Theory versus Patent Law by Alex TabarrokTo Help India, Biden Must Unclog the Vaccine Supply Chains by Rudra ChaudhuriWhat Is Happening to India’s COVID-19 Vaccine Program? by Arjun Kang Joseph

Discussing Patent Laws and Vaccines with Alex Tabarrok

In this episode, Srikanth Viswanathan joins Anirudh Burman to assess India's urban governance structures in the face of the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic. In the second wave, states have been given more leeway in handling the pandemic within their borders. How are states and local authorities equipped to manage the situation?  Srikanth is the Chief Executive Officer of Janaagraha Centre for Citizenship and Democracy. Anirudh Burman is Associate Fellow, Carnegie India.

Discussing India's Urban Governance Structures and the Second Wave with Srikanth Viswanathan

In this episode, Yogendra Kumar joins Deep Pal to analyze the state of the international order. The conclusion of the Cold War in 1991 heralded a new age of peace and prosperity under the leadership of Western powers. Yet, there remain several problems that plague the international system. What can be done to stem the decay of the international order and its constituent multilateral organizations? Yogendra Kumar is a former Indian ambassador. Deep Pal is a visiting fellow at the Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.References: Geopolitics in the Era of Globalisation: Mapping an Alternative Global Future  by Yogendra Kumar    

Analyzing the International Order with Yogendra Kumar

Pinaki Chakraborty, Director NIPFP, joins Carnegie India's Suyash Rai to analyze India’s fiscal responses to the pandemic. Together, they assess how India’s fiscal policy to tackle the pandemic has fared so far. What fiscal measures may be taken to boost economic output? What are some of the prominent obstacles likely to hinder these efforts?Further Reading: GST in India: Simple Tax in a Complex Federal System by Pinaki ChakrabortyState Finance Commissions: How successful have they been in Empowering Local Governments? by Pinaki ChakrabortyMany good things in Budget 2021. But wait for Modi govt to show its will, capability by Suyash Rai

Analyzing India's Fiscal Trends with Pinaki Chakraborty

On Interpreting India, every two weeks, we bring in voices from India and around the globe to unpack how technology, the economy, and foreign policy impact India’s relationship with the world. Interpreting India is a Carnegie India production and is hosted by Carnegie scholars. In season 2, Srinath Raghavan passes the mic to a new generation of hosts, his colleagues at Carnegie, who will explore the questions that hold the potential to alter India’s trajectory through the coming decade.

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Interpreting India

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