How does China think about the nature of war? How has China’s conception of war changed over time? What are “military guidelines” in Chinese statecraft and what leads the Chinese leadership to develop new ones? These and other questions are discussed in the latest episode of Jaw-Jaw, where Professor Taylor Fravel discusses his recent book Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy Since 1949.   Biographies Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and member of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Taylor is a graduate of Middlebury College and Stanford University, where he received his PhD. He currently serves on the editorial boards of the International Studies Quarterly, Security Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, and the China Quarterly, and is a member of the board of directors for the National Committee on U.S. - China Relations. He is also the Principal Investigator of the Maritime Awareness Project.   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links National Defense University, "Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms," (2019) David Edelstein, "Over the Horizon: Time, Uncertainty, and the Rise of Great Powers," (Cornell University Press, 2017) Carl Minzner, "End of an Era: How China's Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise," (Oxford University Press, 2018)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

Jaw-Jaw

A Look at the PLA's History of Planning for War with Taylor Fravel

What threat does a revisionist China pose to the United States and democratically minded states around the world? Where should we look to find out the intentions of the Chinese Communist Party? If left unchecked, will China export its illiberal form of government? These and other questions are explored in this week’s episode of Jaw-Jaw. For a full transcript of this interview, click here.    Biographies  Peter Mattis is a Research Fellow in China Studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks. He was a Fellow in the China Program at The Jamestown Foundation, where he also served as editor of the foundation’s China Brief, a biweekly electronic journal on greater China, from 2011 to 2013. He previously worked as an analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency for four years. Prior to entering government service, Mr. Mattis worked as a research associate at the National Bureau of Asian Research in its Strategic Asia and Northeast Asian Studies programs, providing research assistance and editing support.   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links Elizabeth Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, (Oxford University Press, 2018) Jonathan Ward, China's Vision of Victory, (Atlas Publishing and Media Company, 2019) Adam Brookes, The Night Heron, (Redhook, 2014) Adam Brookes, Spy Games, (Redhook, 2015) Adam Brookes, The Spy's Daughter, (Sphere, 2017)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

Peter Mattis on the Intentions of the Chinese Communist Party

The United States and China are headed for a “cold war lite,” says Minxin Pei. What does this exactly mean? And what threat does China present to the U.S. that would necessitate such a confrontational posture? Can China transition to a less export-driven economy or will its growth inevitably slow? What are the root causes of corruption in China? Is Xi’s anti-corruption campaign successful? These and other questions are explored in this week’s episode of Jaw-Jaw. If you'd like a transcript of this episode, please click here.   Biographies Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker ’72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College. His research has been published in Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, Modern China, China Quarterly, Journal of Democracy, and his op-eds have appeared in the Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, Newsweek International, and International Herald Tribune, and other major newspapers. Professor Pei is the author of China’s Crony Capitalism: The Dynamics of Regime Decay (2016); China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy (2006); and From Reform to Revolution: The Demise of Communism in China and the Soviet Union (1994).   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness in the Obama Administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links Liz Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, (Oxford University Press, May 2018) Nicholas Lardy, The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?, (Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 2019) Minxin Pei, China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy, (Harvard University Press, March 2006)   Music and Production by Tre Hester 

Minxin Pei Predicts a Cold War Lite Between the U.S. and China

Is East Asia balancing against a rising China? No way, says David Kang. Is China’s island-building a unique provocation? Not at all, says Kang. Does the world have anything to fear from a powerful China? Not really, and, indeed, a weak China is the greater threat to world order. Listen to the “unconventional perspective” of Professor David Kang in the latest episode of Jaw-Jaw. If you'd like to read a transcript click here.   Biographies David C. Kang is Maria Crutcher Professor in International Relations, Business and East Asian Languages and Cultures at the University of Southern California, with appointments in both the School of International Relations and the Marshall School of Business. At USC, he is also director of the Korean Studies Institute. Kang’s latest book is  American Grand Strategy and East Asian Security in the 21st Century (Cambridge University Press, 2017). He is also author of East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute (Columbia University Press, 2010); China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (Columbia University Press, 2007); and Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines (Cambridge University Press, 2002).   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness in the Obama Administration. He welcomes comments at bradrogerscarson@gmail.com. Links Brad Glosserman, Peak Japan: The End of Great Ambitions, (Georgetown University Press 2019) Michael Green, By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783, (Columbia University Press 2017) Victor Cha, Power Play: Origins of the American Alliance System in Asia, (Princeton University Press 2016)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

When it Comes to China, America Doth Protest Too Much, David Kang Thinks

What is China’s vision of a reformed system of global governance? And how can the United States and China find common ground, while still competing with one another? How can the United States limit China’s ambitions, and what is the best way to prevail in this international rivalry? These questions – and many more – are addressed in the new episode of Jaw-Jaw! If you'd like a transcript of this episode, please click here.    Biographies Melanie Hart is a senior fellow and director for China Policy at the Center for American Progress. Dr. Hart’s research focuses primarily on China’s domestic political trends, U.S.-China trade and investment, Chinese foreign policy engagement in Asia, and U.S. foreign policy toward China. She founded and leads multiple U.S.-China Track II dialogue programs at CAP and frequently advises senior U.S. political leaders on China policy issues. She has a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, San Diego and a B.A. from Texas A&M University. Most recently, she has co-authored two reports on China, Mapping China’s Global Governance Ambitions (February 2019) and Limit, Leverage, and Compete: A New Strategy on China (April 2019).   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links Elizabeth Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, (Oxford University Press, 2018) Susan Shirk, China: Fragile Super Power, (Oxford University Press, 2008)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

Melanie Hart on Finding Common Ground, While Competing with China

What are China’s grand ambitions? Did the United States get China “wrong”? And what policies should the United States adopt against a newly assertive China? What Western strategists are on the Chinese Communist Party’s reading list? Professor Aaron Friedberg and Brad Carson discuss these issues and much more in the new episode of “Jaw-Jaw.” If you'd like to read a full transcript of the episode, click here.    Biographies Aaron L. Friedberg is professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University, where he has taught since 1987, and co-director of the Woodrow Wilson School’s Center for International Security Studies. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a senior advisor to the National Bureau of Asian Research. Friedberg is the author of The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895-1905 and In the Shadow of the Garrison State: America's Anti-Statism and its Cold War Grand Strategy, both published by Princeton University Press, and co-editor (with Richard Ellings) of three volumes in the National Bureau of Asian Research's annual "Strategic Asia" series. His third book, A Contest for Supremacy: China, America and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, was published in 2011 by W.W. Norton and has been translated into Japanese, Chinese, and Korean. His most recent monograph, Beyond Air-Sea Battle: The Debate Over U.S. Military Strategy in Asia was published in May 2014 as part of the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Adelphi Paper series. Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2005 and was undersecretary of the Army and acting undersecretary of defense for personnel & readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links James Mann, The China Fantasy: Why Capitalism Will Not Bring Democracy to China, (Penguin Book, 2008) Stewart Patterson, China, Trade and Power: Why the West's Economic Engagement Has Failed, (London Publishing Partnership, 2018) Lynne Olson, Troublesome Young Men: The Rebels Who Brought Churchill to Power and Helped Save England, (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2008)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

Aaron Friedberg on Asking the Right Questions About Chinese Ambitions

What exactly is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? What is the place of BRI in Xi Jinping’s foreign policy? What countries are involved in this massive project, and what is the likelihood that the grandest ambitions of BRI will be realized? Is China actually not a maritime power, but, rather, an aspiring continental power? Nadège Rolland and Brad Carson discuss these issues and much more in the new episode of “Jaw-Jaw.” If you'd like to read a full transcript of this episode, click here.  Biographies Nadège Rolland is senior fellow for political and security affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research. Her research focuses mainly on China’s foreign and defense policy and the changes in regional dynamics across Eurasia resulting from the rise of China. Before joining the National Bureau of Asian Research, Rolland was an analyst and senior adviser on Asian and Chinese strategic issues to the French Ministry of Defense (1994–2014). She is the author of the book China’s Eurasian Century? Political and Strategic Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative (2017). Her articles have appeared in various publications, including the Washington Quarterly, Foreign Policy, the Diplomat, the Asian Open Forum, the Lowy Institute Interpreter, and Strategic Asia, and her commentary has been published by the Wall Street Journal, Libération, Les Echos, the Indian National Interest, Radio Free Asia, and BBC World Service. Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was undersecretary of the army and acting undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com. Links Peter Frankopan, The Silk Roads: A New History of the World, (Vintage, 2016) Howard French, Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China's Push for Global Power, (Knopf, 2017) Robert Van Gulik, Judge Dee Mysteries, (University of Chicago Press, 2010)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

The Geo-Economic Challenge of China’s Belt and Road Initiative

How does the logic of strategy apply to China? Is China an "autistic" nation? How did the Obama Administration acquit itself on China policy (hint: not well!)? And why should you not bother reading any contemporary books on China? These and many more provocative questions form the basis of the new edition of Jaw-Jaw. If you'd like to read a full transcript of this episode, click here.    Biographies Edward Luttwak is a political scientist known for his works on grand strategy, military history, and international relations. He is the author of a number of books, including Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace; The Rise of China and the Logic of Strategy; The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire; the Grand Strategy of the Byzantine Empire; and Coup d'Etat: A Practical Handbook. He provides consulting services to governments and international enterprises, including various branches of the U.S. government and the U.S. military.   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2005 and was undersecretary of the Army and acting under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links Edward Luttwak, The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy, (Belknap Press, 2012) The Cambridge History of China, (Cambridge University Press, 2015)   Music and Production by Tre Hester 

China's Great Power Disease

As Chinese power grows, the Larry Diamond, the renowned scholar of democracy, breaks down Beijing’s efforts to direct “sharp power” against democratic institutions in the United States. The key battleground appears to be American educational institutions and China’s main instrument is its United Front Work Department, a critical part of the Communist Party apparatus that aims to enlist, coerce, and induce support for the party around the world. The department’s efforts involve intimidation of Chinese and ethnic Chinese students in the West, corrupting and non-transparent funding to universities, and more. Don’t miss this fascinating exploration of an important topic. If you'd like to read a full transcript of this episode, click here.   Biographies Larry Diamond is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. For more than six years, he directed FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, where he now leads its Program on Arab Reform and Democracy and its Global Digital Policy Incubator. He is the founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy and also serves as senior consultant at the International Forum for Democratic Studies of the National Endowment for Democracy. His research focuses on democratic trends and conditions around the world and on policies and reforms to defend and advance democracy. Under his leadership, the Hoover Institute recently released a major report, Chinese Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance, on Chinese influence activities in the United States.   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2005 and was undersecretary of the Army and acting undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links Larry Diamond, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, (Penguin Press, 2019) Elizabeth Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, (Oxford University Press, 2018) Clive Hamilton, Silent Invasion, (Hardie Grant, 2018)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

How Chinese Sharp Power Takes Aim at American Democracy

How did American analysts seem to get China so “wrong”? Why wasn’t there more of a debate until fairly recently inside the halls of power? What concerns drove the Obama administration’s China policy? What would a Chinese-led international order look like? Ely Ratner discusses these issues and many more in the fifth episode of “Jaw-Jaw.” If you'd like to read a full transcript of this episode, click here.   Biographies Ely Ratner is the former deputy national security advisor to Vice President Joe Biden, and he currently is Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American security. His extensive writings on China have been published in Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal, among other outlets.   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2005 and was undersecretary of the Army and acting undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links Liz Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, (Oxford University Press, 2018) Thomas Wright, All Measures Short of War: The Contest for the 21st Century & the Future of American Power, (Yale University Press, 2017) Music and Production by Tre Hester

How America Got China Wrong

Is it possible that China, far from its recent reputation for assertiveness, is in fact a remarkably stable and reticent actor on the world stage? Is there any way that the United States can counteract China’s growing influence on international institutions? Should the United States extend security guarantees to countries like Vietnam? Lyle Goldstein discusses these issues and many more in the fourth episode of “Jaw-Jaw,” the newest addition to the War on the Rocks family of podcasts.   Biographies Lyle Goldstein is a research professor in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the United States Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. A speaker of both Chinese and Russian, he writes frequently for The National Interest on national security issues. He is the author of Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry (2015), among other works. Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness in the Obama Administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com. If you'd like to read a full transcript of this episode, click here.   Links John Fairbank, The United States and China, (Harvard University Press, 1983) Lyle Goldstein, Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry, (Georgetown University Press, 2015) Richard McKenna, The Sand Pebbles, (Naval Institute Press, 2001) Hugh White, The China Choice: Why We Should Share Power, (Oxford University Press, 2013) The Sinica Podcast Sean's Russia Blog   Music and Production by Tre Hester

Rethinking Our Assumptions About Chinese Aggression

Over its history, the People’s Republic of China has cycled through softer and harder periods of authoritarianism. This is known in China as the “fang-shou cycle.” Today, we are seeing a harder period of Chinese politics. The country’s leader, Xi Jinping, is consolidating power and cracking down on both corruption and civil liberties. What does this mean for the future of China? What lessons did the Chinese Communist Party learn from the color revolutions and the fall of the Soviet Union? Can China avoid the “middle-income trap”?  Professor David Shambaugh and Brad Carson discuss these issues in the third episode of “Jaw-Jaw,” the newest addition to the War on the Rocks family of podcasts. If you'd like to read a full transcript of this episode, click here. Biographies David Shambaugh is a professor of political science and international affairs at The George Washington University, where he is also director of the university’s China Policy Program. The author of many books on China, his most recent include China’s Future (Polity Press, 2016) and China Goes Global: The Partial Power (Oxford University Press, 2013). Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2005 and was undersecretary of the Army and acting undersecretary of defense for personnel & readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com. Links Liz Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, (Oxford University Press, 2018) Carl Minzner, End of an Era: How China's Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise, (Oxford University Press, 2018) Bruce Dickson, The Dictator's Dilemma: The Chinese Communist Party's Strategy for Survival, (Oxford University Press, 2018) David Shambaugh, China's Future, (Polity, 2016)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

Vicious Cycle: The Opening and Closing of Chinese Politics

What is Xi Jinping’s “revolution” in Chinese politics? How did he amass the power to enact his ambitious agenda? Is he in danger of being toppled? Or is he effectively a dictator for life? In the second episode of “Jaw-Jaw,” Liz Economy of the Council on Foreign Relations and our host Brad Carson discuss the future of China and its powerful leader, Xi Jinping. Please enjoy the newest addition to the War on the Rocks family of podcasts. If you’d like to read a full-transcript of this episode, click here. Biographies Elizabeth Economy is the C.V. Starr senior fellow and director for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a distinguished visiting fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. In June 2018, Dr. Economy was named one of the “10 Names That Matter on China Policy” by Politico Magazine. Her most recent book is The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State (2018). Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness in the Obama Administration. Feel free to write him at brad.carson@warontherocks.com to share any feedback you have. Links Jung Chang, Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China (Touchstone, 2003). David Shambaugh, China Goes Global: The Partial Power (Oxford University Press, 2013). John Pomfret, The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom: America and China, 1776 to the Present (Picador, 2017). Music and Production by Tre Hester

Will Xi's Third Revolution Last?

What is the future of U.S.-Chinese relations? Will a rising China seek to overturn the U.S.-led international order? What is China doing inside the first island chain? In cyberspace? Orbital space? Is China more like Imperial Germany or is it more like France in the late 19th century? Dean Cheng and Brad Carson explore these questions and many more in the inaugural episode of “Jaw-Jaw,” the newest addition to the War on the Rocks family of podcasts. Dean even recommends some of his favorite books on China – which will be a regular “Jaw-Jaw” feature. You can read the entire transcript of this episode at War on the Rocks. Biographies Dean Cheng is Senior Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center, Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, at the Heritage Foundation. He specializes in China’s military and foreign policy, in particular China’s relationship with its Asian neighbors and with the United States. His most recent book is Cyber Dragon: Inside China’s Information Warfare and Cyber Operations (2016). Cheng is a frequent media commentator on China-related issues. Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness in the Obama Administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com. Links Richard E. Nisbett, The Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think Differently…and Why (Free Press, 2004). Alfred Wilhelm, The Chinese at the Negotiating Table: Style & Characteristics (Diane Publishing Co., 1994). David Finkelstein and James Mulvenon (Eds), China's Revolution in Doctrinal Affairs: Emerging Trends in the Operational Art of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (Center for Naval Analyses, 2005)    

China is a Funny Sort of Revisionist Power — A Conversation with Dean Cheng

Winston Churchill once remarked: "To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war." Brad Carson, a former senior defense official and congressman, hosts 'Jaw-Jaw' -- an interview series on the world's greatest geopolitical challenges. Each season focuses on a different challenge and features interviews with the top thinkers and leaders working on that challenge. Our first season is on China. This podcast is brought to you by War on the Rocks (https://warontherocks.com) and is produced by Tre Hester.

Jaw-Jaw: The Trailer

Winston Churchill once said, "To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war." Brad Carson, a former senior defense official and congressman, hosts 'Jaw-Jaw' -- an interview series on the world's greatest geopolitical challenges. Each season focuses on a different challenge and features interviews with the top thinkers and leaders working on that challenge. Our first season is on China. This podcast is brought to you by War on the Rocks (https://warontherocks.com).

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Jaw-Jaw

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