If it looks like a coup and smells like a coup, it's a coup... right? Not so fast says Dr Harry Hagopian in this 'Middle East Analysis' podcast as we focus on Tunisia. When a president dismisses goverment, sacks the prime minister, blocks parliament and orders journalists to leave, surely we're witnessing the classic hallmarks of a coup d'état? Perhaps not. Once the dust had settled on a bold move by Tunisian President Kais Saied, it seems he has 'frozen' parliament for 30 days to address the country's ills. It's a watching brief and Dr Hagopian's willing to wait and see for now. The two other realities we're looking at are the near failed states of Iraq and Lebanon. Both look like pawns in an international chess game but can either come back from the brink? All this and more in our hour-long summer podcast.

Middle East Analysis

Tunisia: A coup or not a coup? That is the question

New leaders are popping up all over the place in the Middle East and North Africa. Today's 'Middle East Analysis' is something of a presidential, prime ministerial and parliamentary podcast as we take a closer look at the newly or recently elected men (obviously) in the limelight. First to Iran and a man who could well be in line to succeed Supreme Leader Khamenei, President-elect Ebrahim Raisi. How will the 60-year-old conservative cope with Covid and the potential resurrection of the nuclear deal? Then to Israel as Dr Harry Hagopian gives us his take on the man who has taken over from Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister following his 12 years in office. But what do we know about Naftali Bennett? Two north African realities are explored - Libya and Algeria. Libya looks set for elections in December 2021 but the question that always hangs in the air is: how do you get the foreign troops and mercenaries out of the country? Will a new parliament and president take control of Libya's future? And what of Algeria? Dr Hagopian describes recent elections as "extremely telling" but what exactly do those elections tell us? Especially considering the very low turn out of under a third. Ahead of Harry's final thoughts, we turn a wistful glance in Lebanon's direction. Akin to a post-World War 20th century meltdown, the 'Switzerland of the Middle East' is in a sorry state with unaffordable high prices and shortages of bread, medicines and petrol.

New leaders but age old problems

This 'Middle East Analysis' can only have one topic up for discussion - the escalating violence between Israel and Palestine. Much has been said and written about the conflict and the nature of its seemingly never-ending cycle of attack and counter attack - not just in the physical sense but the political too. So many countries with so many vested interests look on. In the case of some states, it would be hard to ascertain whether they're looking at all. The voice of Middle East Analysis, Dr Harry Hagopian, has a tough job on his hands to pick through the realities for this podcast. A fair and proportional response is, perhaps, what's called for - from whichever angle you view this frustrating, painful conflict. Rather than regurgitate headlines, Dr Hagopian takes an hour-long look at the history, the politics, the influencers, the neighbours - near and far - the plight of the Palestinians living in Gaza, the West Bank and, indeed in Israel itself. Not to mention the diaspora. Inevitably we look at the Holy City of Jerusalem and whether we can find hope, dignity and humanity in this maelstrom of suffering. As usual, those who suffer are the men, women and children trying to live their lives in the middle of this simmering cauldron.

Israel - Palestine: Violence begets violence

April's Middle East Analysis is squeaking in on the last day of the month. In its own way it carries some of the chaos of the region. Today we focus primarily on Jordan. It's a country close to the heart of our ever-present guest Dr Harry Hagopian. Why? Well, for starters he was born there. But there are other reasons you'll hear more about in our packed 70-minute podcast. What lies behind the royal spat? Why has Prince Hamzah bin Hussein turned to the East Bank-ers and where does this leave him with his half-brother, the King of Jordan? From: 6 mins 20 secs Or do you want to hear more about the Palestinian Elections - the first for 15 years? Oh hang on... they've been postponed. Why? Listen for more. From: 31 mins 25 secs Sticking with the electoral theme we head to beleaguered Syria - a country we have dedicated many minutes to over the past ten years. President Bashar al-Assad is certainly a survivor. Is this election a shoo-in? From: 45 mins 17 secs Finally we ask forgiveness for stretching the Middle East and North Africa to the South Caucasus and a final thought on the Armenian Genocide 106 years after the commemoration date of 24 April 1915. From: 53 mins 1 sec Dip in, dip out but we hope you take something from it.

Elections, non elections and a right royal rumpus

This Middle East Analysis podcast is a one-hour journey through a variety of countries and regional realities. It's a podcast of questions - and questions need answers. To provide them, we look to Dr Harry Hagopian. He frequently tells us he's NOT a prophet - the region has plenty of those - but he IS an international lawyer, commentator and consultant on the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf regions. Here's what we're asking: Who are the puppet masters in a country on the brink? Who's the kingmaker who could unlock an election stalemate? Who's brokering 'peace' in two violent conflicts that have paralysed two countries? What price victory - and what is 'victory' anyway? Listen to Dr Hagopian on: Introduction (Start - 1m 51s) 10 years of the conflict in Syria (1m 52s - 15m32s) Libya - dare to hope? (15m33s - 22m 36s) Yemen - a supervised ceasefire and an end to the blockade? (22m 37s - 35m 22s) Israel's elections - who's the kingmaker? (35m 23s - 50m 45s) A sacred time for the three monotheistic religions (50m 46s - End)

Regional Realities - What Price Victory?

Pope Francis, the spiritual leader of the world's 1.2 billion Catholics, makes an historic visit to Iraq - the first by a Pope - from 5-8 March 2021. From Saddam Hussein to al-Qaeda to ISIS, the footage beamed onto our screens has often been of terrorist attacks, conflict and destruction - all played out with the people of Iraq trying to survive in the middle. This is the first topic we cover on this 'Middle East Analysis' podcast with our guest Dr Harry Hagopian. Will it be a positive visit that not only supports the country's Christians but all Iraqis? Our second subject sees us call on the legal brain of Dr Hagopian to analyse the International Criminal Court's 5 February ruling of stating that it has jurisdiction over war crimes committed in the Palestinian territories - a ruling broadly welcomed by Palestinians and criticised by Israel and the US. Finally we look to the stars and delve into the role the United Arab Emirates is playing in global endeavours to explore space. As the famous David Bowie song might go if re-released 'Ground Control to Hazzaa Ali Almansoori'. As we're running to space mission durations today, here are the timecodes to help you pick your topic: Introduction Start to 3m 4s Pope's historic visit to Iraq 3m 5s to 26m 52s International Criminal Court on Palestinian Territories 26m 53s to 51m 24s UAE's role in space exploration 51m 25s to end

Reaching for the stars: Historic visit, historic ruling

Don't act the prophet and learn to bear the recurring disappointment of one false dawn after another. Two lessons I've learned the hard way after thirteen years of covering the realities of the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf regions with the knowledgeable and engaging Dr Harry Hagopian. Today's Middle East Analysis podcast, the first of 2021, actually has a positive feel to it in light of the Al-Ula Agreement that brought to an end the three-and-a-half year blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Signed in the Saudi city that bears its name, the agreement has led to a cautious reconciliation that should suit all parties not to mention the outgoing US president Donald Trump. Respected journalist and analyst Rami Khouri described the tactic of boycotting a state as a "fool's tool" so does Dr Harry Hagopian see this agreement as a template for conflict resolution in the region? All this and more in January's Middle East Analysis.

Discarding the "tool of fools" to embrace a new diplomacy in the Gulf

Our last Middle East Analysis podcast of 2020 is out ten years to the day since the Tunisian street seller Mohamed Bouazizi self-immolated in frustration and despair triggering what came to be known as the Arab Spring. But what has changed and what have we learned in the last decade? Resident contributor Dr Harry Hagopian is once again in the chair, remotely, to discuss this and the fourth country in the region to agree to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel - Morocco. But what does this mean for the Sahrawi people of Western Sahara and should an outgoing US President really be brokering these deals? We then ask whether there's light at the end of the tunnel to bring an end to the spat in the Gulf that has seen a land, sea and air embargo placed on Qatar by fellow Gulf Cooperation Council members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Finally it's Christmas in Bethlehem - but not as we know it. There's an eerie silence on the streets of the West Bank town as COVID-19 restrictions keep pilgrims and visitors at home. All this and more...

Normalisation in MENA, Gulf States thaw, and an abnormal Christmas

'MENA Gulf 140' sees Dr Harry Hagopian given a mere 140 seconds per topic to discuss the often complex realities playing out in the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf regions. We touched on it last month but now the legal challenges and allegations of corruption surrounding the US Presidential election have amounted to very little, we expect Joe Biden in the White House from 20 January 2021. So three of the 140-second blocks are allocated to looking in more depth at the US and how its foreign policy moves might impact on the region. Dr Hagopian sees it as "some cosmetic, some radical", As well as the Israel-Palestine reality, we look at neighbour Jordan before side-stepping into the Gulf region to discuss Oman and Kuwait before ditching the overall mandate for another comment on Nagorno-Karabakh. It's a lot to pack into 30 minutes but we're hoping it provides food for thought and sparks further reading and engagement.

Biden his time - The US and the MENA and Gulf regions

Today signals a new dawn for our Middle East Analysis podcasts. MEA continues after more than a decade but the format has changed. In this fast-paced era of online consumption, we're taking on our topics in a shorter, sharper way. Introducing 'MENA GULF 140'. So what is it? Well, inspired by the limit to the number of seconds of audio or film you can post to a certain popular micro-blogging platform, 'MENA GULF 140' looks at the realities of the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf regions in a mere 2m 20s per topic. Each month we'll take on five or six topics with the international lawyer, consultant and analyst Dr Harry Hagopian and the combined answers will make up a brand new 'MENA GULF 140' podcast. Today: 10 years since the first so-called Arab Spring Is the Arab world better or worse off? Normalisation UAE, Bahrain and now Sudan now 'recognise' Israel after a series of US-brokered deals. What does this mean for other Arab states of the region? What would a Biden Administration do differently to the Trump Administration regarding Israel/Palestine? Nagorno-Karabakh What are the international actors doing to dampen or pour fire on the flames of conflict? Lebanon How is Lebanon coping almost 12-weeks after the port-side blast in Beirut? Libya Libya's warring sides agreed to a permanent cease-fire on Friday 23 October. Will this end hostilities or is it simply a small step in the right direction? All this and Dr Hagopian's final thought.

To the brave and the faithful, nothing is impossible

Dr Harry Hagopian, the voice of Middle East Analysis, is fluent in many languages. French? Doesn't even break sweat. For me it's more of a struggle but when reflecting on the horrific blast that ripped through Lebanon's capital Beirut, I found an oft-quoted phrase in my head "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose". It certainly seems that the more things change the more they stay the same for this resilient nation and its beleaguered people - a state that has seen more than one false dawn. Maybe a French phrase is pertinent for another reason. There's an indelible historical link between Lebanon and France - President Emmanuel Macron visited Beirut in the immediate aftermath and pledged his support. Some even petitioned for a return to the French Mandate - surely a sign of desperation - nay exasperation. For Dr Harry Hagopian things have to change. It's time to be brave and dynamic. A time for real leadership. A time to 'be' Lebanese - a time for citizenship. Get past the warlords and communities - think of Lebanon as a country of citizens.

Lebanon - things have to change

This Middle East Analysis podcast takes our resident regional analyst, international lawyer Dr Harry Hagopian, around not just the Middle East but also North Africa. We start with a coronavirus update discussing the impact of COVID-19 on the MENA region and the Arab world. Then on to our sweep of country realities. Firstly it's the chaos and economic meltdown plaguing Lebanon - the beautiful land of cedars. A third of the population suffer below the poverty line, with daily power cuts, a lack of safe drinking water and limited healthcare. Why and what next? On to Jordan, and in particular its relations with Israel and Palestine. Prime Minister Omar Razzaz made interesting comments on potential support for a One State solution - controversial to even utter it in some quarters. We shift to North Africa and Egypt. Two points here - both focused on President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi. Firstly his handling of civil war-torn Libya and secondly the interesting case of the dam in Ethiopia being fed by water from the Nile. Water - the new gold perhaps? We conclude by shining a light into Tunisia - a country not on its own in struggling to form a government. A challenge for new Prime Minister designate Hichem Mechichi. Final word goes to Dr Harry Hagopian who wishes our listeners Eid Mubarak!

COVID, poverty, chaos and meddling neighbours

One of Dr Harry Hagopian's 'Intuitive Reactions' provides the meat in the sandwich of this 'Middle East Analysis - Extra' podcast. In December 2019, US President Donald Trump signed into law the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, also known as the Caesar Act, a piece of US legislation to sanction the Syrian government, including the president Bashar al-Assad, for war crimes against the Syrian population. The sanctions finally kicked in on 17 June. But what impact does this have on Bashar al-Assad, his family and international sponsors? Is this designed to bring about regime change or regime attitude change? To discuss this, Dr Hagopian is joined by Dr Ziad Majed, Program Coordinator for Middle East Pluralities at the American University of Paris. Professor Majed teaches Middle East studies and writes on Lebanese, Syrian and Arab affairs as well as on regional political transitions and crises.

Render unto Trump? Caesar's Act and Syria

Middle East Analysis reverts back to something of its normal modus operandi for June's podcast as international lawyer and MENA consultant Dr Harry Hagopian joins us in semi pandemic lockdown to discuss three realities challenging the Middle East North Africa region. In just over ten minutes per segment, Dr Hagopian discusses the ongoing embargo of Qatar, the ever more dangerous regional conflict in Libya and the current financial meltdown in Syria and its impact on neighbour Lebanon. Quick Navigate: Introduction: START - 3m 5s Embargo of Qatar: 3m 6s - 14m 13s Libya: 14m 14s - 25m 23s Syria: 25m 24s - 39m 40s Back Announcement: 39m 41s to END

International actors, regional rumblings and ongoing embargoes

It's rather dangerous to assume anything in the Middle East North Africa region - least of all the shifting dynamics of the relationship between Israel and Palestine. One assumption is that, as early as 1 July, one of Israel's two unity government Prime Ministers, Benjamin Netanyahu, will announce the annexation of Palestinian land in the West Bank. At this point, any hope of a contiguous state for Palestinians will ebb away and with it hope for a long-term peaceful coexistence for both Israelis and Palestinians. This hour-long Middle East Analysis brings our resident contributor Dr Harry Hagopian to MEA's virtual studio. Harry has immersed himself in this most delicate and frustrating peace process for almost 30 years. But will the annexation actually happen? There are many actors in this drama... Donald Trump and son-in-law adviser Jared Kushner (currently more preoccupied by the protests over the killing of George Floyd and the November Presidential Elections), Israeli settler leaders in the West Bank, Arab neighbours in the region - specifically Jordan, the sluggish response from the EU, the international community and other institutions and that's before we discuss international law and inevitable comparisons with Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. All this is dissected - in his unique way - by Dr Harry Hagopian.

Israel's Annexation of West Bank land is inevitable... or is it?

The Middle East North Africa region is complex - hardly breaking news. There are complex religious, political and socio-economic realities with global players pushing into the ring from every corner - intervening and retreating like a boxer stalking the target of his vested interest. Our 'Middle East Analysis' podcasts feature the analysis of Dr Harry Hagopian, an international lawyer and commentator on the Middle East North Africa region and the Gulf States.

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Middle East Analysis

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