David Eil talks with Carissa Byrne Hessick about her book, "Punishment Without Trial: Why Plea Bargaining Is a Bad Deal." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!  

Probable Causation

Bonus episode: Carissa Byrne Hessick on plea bargaining

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. This episode was first posted in March 2020. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber. "Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg. "Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde. "The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde. "The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer. "A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer. "Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman. "An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker. "The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh. "Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith. "What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel. "Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall. "The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler. "An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman. "How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino. "Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen. "School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen. 

Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST)

Kerri Raissian talks about the effects of domestic violence courts.

Episode 59: Kerri Raissian on domestic violence courts

Guest host Amanda Agan talks with Jennifer Doleac about how DNA databases affect crime and recidivism. “The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac. “The Effects of Surveillance Cameras on Crime: Evidence from the Stockholm Subway” by Mikael Priks. “The Deterrent Effect of Surveillance Cameras on Crime” by Santiago Gómez, Daniel Mejía, Santiago Tobón. “Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni. Probable Causation Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni. “Encouraging Desistance from Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac. 

Episode 58: Jennifer Doleac on DNA databases

Giovanni Mastrobuoni talks about how predictive policing affects crime.   *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! ***

Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni on predictive policing

Gaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia. “Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Negotiating Pathways to Manhood: Violence Reproduction in Medellin’s Periphery” by Adam Baird. “Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization” by Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea (Forthcoming). “Clicking on Heaven’s Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime” by Paolo Pinotti. “Effects of Colombia’s Social Protection System on Workers’ Choice between Formal and Informal Employment” by Adriana Camacho, Emily Conover, and Alejandro Hoyos. “Assessing Health Reform in Colombia: From Theory to Practice” by Alejandro Gaviria, Carlos Medina, and Carolina Mejía. “Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia” by Adriana Kugler and Maurice Kugler. “Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality? Evidence from Colombia’s Reform” by Adriana Kugler, Maurice Kugler, and Louis O. Herrera Prada (NBER Working Paper No. 23308.). “Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo. “Spatial Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Crime” by Gaurav Khanna Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Daniel Ramos, Jorge Tamayo and Audrey Tiew. “The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti and Breno Sampaio. “Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance" by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. “Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and María Micaela Sviatschi. Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi “Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, María Micaela Sviatschi. 

Episode 56: Gaurav Khanna on employment and crime in Colombia

Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing. "Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven Levitt. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment” by Justin McCrary. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply” by Steven Levitt. “COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens. “Safety in Police Numbers: Evidence of Police Effectiveness from Federal COPS Grant Applications” by Emily Weisburst. “More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello. “The Effects of COPS Office Funding on Sworn Force Levels, Crime, and Arrests” by Phillip Cook, Max Kapustin, Jens Ludwig, and Douglas Miller. “Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary. “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey. 

Episode 55: Morgan Williams Jr. on the race-specific effects of policing

David Eil talks with Hannah Walker about her book, "Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race."

Bonus episode: Hannah Walker on criminal justice contact and political participation

Carolina Arteaga talks about how parental incarceration affects kids' education outcomes.

Episode 54: Carolina Arteaga on parental incarceration

Heyu Xiong talks about on how legalizing marijuana affects those with histories of selling marijuana illegally.

Episode 53: Heyu Xiong on how legalizing marijuana affects marijuana dealers

David Eil talks with Gregg Caruso about his book, "Rejecting Retributivism: Free Will, Punishment, and Criminal Justice."

Bonus episode: Gregg Caruso on free will and punishment

Katherine Eriksson talks about how Rosenwald schools affected incarceration rates in the Jim Crow South.

Episode 52: Katherine Eriksson on Rosenwald schools

Amanda Agan, Anna Harvey, and host Jennifer Doleac talk about the consequences of prosecuting defendants for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses.

Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey on misdemeanor prosecution

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch "Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch "Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman "Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver "Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith "Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen 

Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior (REBROADCAST)

Manisha Shah talks about the effects of criminalizing sex work. This episode was first posted in June 2019. “Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work” by Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Muz, and Manisha Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Effect of Adult Entertainment Establishments on Sex Crime: Evidence from New York City" by Riccardo Ciacci and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. "Banning the purchase of prostitution increases rape: Evidence from Sweden" by Riccardo Ciacci. "Human Trafficking and Regulating Prostitution" by Samuel Lee and Petra Persson. "Violence and Entry in Prostitution Markets: Implications for Prostitution Law" Samuel Lee and Petra Persson. "Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health"  by Scott Cunningham and Manisha Shah. "Street Prostitution Zones and Crime"  by Paul Bisschop, Stephen Kastoryano, and Bas van der Klaauw. “Craigslist Reduced Violence Against Women” by Scott Cunningham, Gregory DeAngelo, and John Tripp. “Income, Income Shocks, and Transactional Sex” by Katherine LoPiccalo, Jonathan Robinson, and Ethan Yeh. “Transactional Sex as a Response to Risk in Western Kenya” by Jonathan Robinson and Ethan Yeh. 

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Probable Causation

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