This is the first half of an interview the Saxo Strategy Team hosted with Cathie Wood of the Ark Innovation ETF on October 12, 2021. For a link to the full video interview, see below. We will bring you the second half of the audio of this interview tomorrow on October 22. Enjoy! Full interview in video format: https://bit.ly/3naxn3U (find under Previous Webinars) More about the Ark Innovation ETF: https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkk/ 

Saxo Market Call

Special Edition: Interview with Ark Innovation‘s Cathie Wood, Part 1

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3E1OVWJ   - Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen who takes us through the evidence that stagflation has arrived with sustained higher prices over the horizon while real growth is cratering. We also delve into the copper market, the outlook for a number of currencies, a laundry list of currencies reporting supply chain issues, why yields are headed higher and why the stock market has the backdrop wrong here. Hosting today's pod is John J. Hardy. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Stagflation is already here

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3jcsG8A   - Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen and a look across markets, where central bank policy tightening expectations have shifted  into a whole new gear this week, led by the RBNZ and the Bank of England, with the Fed behind the curve on its insistence on first tapering. Also, we look at a rare significant USD move overnight as the Chinese renminbi broke higher versus the US dollar and took other USD pairs with it. A special focus today on AUDUSD and the market thumbing its nose at RBA guidance. We also talk inflation, yield, second round wage effects, the next Fed Chair if it isn't Powell and more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Central banks expectations find new gear, but Fed is behind the curve

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3AT8fDk   - Today we run through a choppy start to the week as the market digests the latest sharp advance in energy prices and bond yields and casts a nervous eye on the feeble Chinese growth data for Q3. We also dive into the sharp flattening of the US yield curve, the hot CPI reading out of New Zealand overnight, look at what drives GBPUSD even more than the recent drastic repricing of the Bank of England's rate hike expectations in recent months, talk extreme JPY weakness and whether it is sustainable, preview the busy earnings calendar for the week ahead and a less busy, but still interesting macro calendar as well.  Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Energy is building towards...what?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3vgcw2P   - Today we look at an equity market that is in melt-up mode after key resistance fell away in major US equity indices and as tamed long US yields and a weak US dollar are adding fuel to the fire. We fail to see yields heading much lower still without indicating something rather ominous. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the movers and shakers in FX, Bunds over-correcting on growth downgrades for Germany (because of supply constraints, not weak demand), credit, and today's key data points - especially the inflation expectations part of the University of Michigan sentiment survey, which reveals interesting possible source of a seemingly strong economy with weak sentiment.  Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market goes vertical

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FEYmgp   - Today we look at what could prove a key reversal day across  markets as the US CPI release and FOMC minutes failed to trigger significant unease and US long treasury yields actually headed lower after another strong treasury auction yesterday, this time of 30-year T-bonds. With US long yields reversing lower, risk sentiment got a significant boost and the USD was pushed sharply back lower, while the metals market has seized all of the attention in the commodities space. Also on the call, we look at JP Morgan earnings, what's on tap next as earnings season gets into full swing and whether the USD has  posted a major top. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A possible key reversal day for markets

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3aNeqi1   - Today we look at the latest choppy session and the important day ahead, with the September US CPI print on tap later today, followed by the FOMC minutes as the Fed is set to taper at its next meeting, and then the important Chinese PPI up in Asia, an important global inflation benchmark. The oil market is still supported by natural gas prices at current levels and will watch the latest OPEC and IEA oil outlooks closely today. Copper, grains, GBP, Apple production woes on chip shortages, a look ahead at US financials and other companies report and more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US CPI, FOMC Minutes and Chinese PPI on tap

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2X2cfne   - Today we continue to outline our laundry list of concerns as the energy crunch continues its vice grip and as bonds are providing zero offsetting returns when equities come under pressure, and yet the VIX forward curve suggests ongoing complacency. We also look at yields and yield curves, which continue to suggest that markets don't believe central banks are at risk of making a policy mistake. In FX, we zoom in on the sterling outlook, while earnings season is heating up in the US, with an interesting company Fastenal reporting today.  Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This market still looks very complacent

This is a special edition podcast with Tor Svelland of Svelland Capital. Tor is a trader and investor in energy, shipping, commodities and related equities with a tremendously deep background in the space. In this interview, Tor takes us through the factors that are pressuring global commodity prices higher, particularly in energy, metals and shipping and takes us through the argument that prices will likely have to go much higher still to attract the kind of investment needed to raise production and carry out the desired transformation of our energy base. Hosting this must-listen interview are Ole Hansen and John J. Hardy. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Guest: Tor Svelland

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3AuW5Ao   - Today we look at commodity inflation pressures dominating the agenda ahead of what could prove the most interesting earnings season in years as companies will have to discuss pressures on operations from ongoing supply chain disruptions and the risk of sustained prices rises in operational costs from energy prices and even wage and yield pressures. We also pick apart the US September jobs report, where the headline weak growith in payrolls does not reflect a weak jobs market, and where a fresh surge in average hourly earnings suggest wage pressures a rising. FX, the crude oil price impact on fertilizer and more discussed on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

It‘s getting very expensive out there

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FvCMKY   - Today a look at a double whammy of direction changes yesterday after energy price relief jolted back to new concerns as oil rushed back toward the highs and as US yields are pressuring at cycle highs ahead of the key event risk of the week - the US September jobs report. We put special emphasis in that report on the average hourly earnings data perhaps even more than the nonfarm payrolls change. Elsewhere, a look at Bunds yields, comparing junk yields in Europe and UK with those in the US, the latest on natural gas, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Oops - if only it were so easy

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Aooxnr   - Today a look at the significant sentiment shift as a number of issues dogging market confidence have suddenly cleared, if possibly only temporarily, especially the direction of energy prices after a statement from Russian president Vladimir Putin on supplying the market. As well, US Congress looks set to kick the debt ceiling issue out to December. Elsewhere, we look at the possible model for the Chinese approach to troubled companies like Evergrande, the resurgent pound at pivotal levels and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Relief rally on deflation of clear and present danger.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lc2FHQ   - Today we look at the ongoing energy crisis, which is spreading more aggressively into oil prices now, scratch our heads at yesterday's attempt to piece together a rally in equities and then the negative sentiment shift overnight and into this morning, with no relief in sight as the USD pulls back stronger, driven in part by rising US treasury yields. A look at interesting policy signals from Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a speech today, inflationary signals from cotton and PepsiCo's guidance on price hikes, the RBNZ sell-the-fact rate hike overnight and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A pressure cooker of rising energy prices, rising USD and rising yields.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BdZEMz   - Today we look at the issues that continue to dog this market, with a fresh rush higher in energy prices across the board in the wake of a OPEC+ meeting, as crude oil prices cleared 7-year highs, the US debt ceiling issue still an open question, Japanese equities deflating on new Prime Minister Kishida, and Facebook's no-good, very bad day/week. We also argue that this  sell-off may not have even really gotten started, judging from the forward VIX curve. We also look at PepsiCo as a compelling bellwether, signs of a wobble in EM corporate credit and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Has equity market sell-off really even started?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3l5jzHW   - Today we look an attempt to put together a strong close last week and why markets wilted again overnight, in party on news out of China, but also on sources indicating that the US Trade Representation Katherine Tai is set to say that China is not living up to the terms of the trade deal agreed under the Trump administration. Her appearance today is the first real opportunity to get a temperature check on the Biden administrations attitude and intentions on trade policy with China. Plenty more on the call, including a look at Tesla's impressive Q3 delivery numbers, interesting FX stories for the week ahead and the earnings and macro calendar preview. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US-China trade relationship shifts back to the front burner today

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