The past few days have seen tensions across the Taiwan Strait rise further as Beijing and Taipei marked their respective national days. China’s air force deployed a record number of warplanes into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ), while Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen again defended the island as a de facto democratic, sovereign nation. Beijing's increased political and economic pressure, as well as military posturing, on Taipei takes place against the backdrop of an intensifying China-US strategic rivalry, for which Taiwan remains a key point of contention. Join our Asia-Pacific analysts, Dr Guo Yu, Aedan Mordecai and Jack Broome to discuss the latest situation concerning Taiwan, and how such persistent cross-strait tensions may evolve in the coming year, assessing possible future flashpoints and business implications.

Sibylline Insight Series

China-Taiwan: Persistent Tensions, Possible Flashpoints and Potential Implications

This week join your host Alexander Parsons, our Senior Analyst along with Valeria Scuto our Middle East and North Africa Analyst and Anastasia Chisholm our Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss the up and coming elections in Iraq. Iraq's elections due this Sunday, 10 October, will take place during a period of protracted economic crisis and considerable anti-government public sentiment, which has risen since the government's repression of protest movements in 2019. Strong security measures will be deployed on and around election day, while international observers and regional actors will closely watch electoral processes and results. Shi'ite groups – including Iran-affiliated factions – are likely to continue to dominate Iraq's fractured political landscape. Likely flashpoints for domestic unrest include the maintenance of the unpopular elite-led status quo and allegations of fraud. In turn, these could delay timelines for government formation and undermine the implementation of political and economic reforms, driving policy risk for businesses and investors in the coming months.

Discussing the up and coming Elections in Iraq

Join our host Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, along with Louis Cox-Brusseau and Zsofia Wolford our Europe Analysts to discuss the upcoming Bundestag election. Germany faces one of the most uncertain elections in the country's history due to the fragmentation of votes between mainstream and smaller parties. As of now, Chancellor Angela Merkel's party is set to come only second at the parliamentary election on 26 September due to the plummeting popularity of their candidate for Chancellor, Armin Laschet. The Socialist Democratic Party is expected to gain the most votes, however, it is highly likely that they will need to engage in lengthy coalition talks with the Greens, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party and maybe even the far-left Die Linke party to form a majority government. As such, Germany could see a three-party coalition for the first time, and a possible coalition including the SPD and the Greens could speed up the country's decarbonisation processes, increasing risks for carbon-heavy industries.

Discussing the upcoming Bundestag elections

Join your host Alexander Parsons, our Senior Analyst along with Benedict Manzin our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst and Edie Lipton our Africa Associate Analyst to discuss the coup in Guinea. The recent overthrow of President Alpha Conde renders Guinea the third country in the region to undergo a coup in the past year. While local partners wish to discourage the repeated use of this tactic, their capacity to effectively penalise coup leaders is constrained as responses are limited by the need to maintain regional stability, in the context of jihadist conflict in the Sahel. Additionally, while coup leaders claim to represent the demands of a dissatisfied population, they clearly have specific political goals and efforts to maintain their own influence and access to resources may drive tensions with civilian groups seeking greater reform.

Discussing the Coup in Guinea

This week join your host Edward Johnson, Head of Global Analysis along with Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst and Alex Lord, our Europe & Eurasia Analyst to discuss the up and coming Russian elections. Legislative elections will be held in Russia between 17 – 19 September, with the ruling United Russia highly likely to retain its political dominance. Despite the party's low approval ratings amid prolonged dissatisfaction with socio-economic conditions, the government's use of incentives, targeted repression, and online voting will work in its favour. Meanwhile, the absence of a clear and unifying opposition figure will ensure that the risk of mass protests is limited, though sporadic mass action cannot be ruled out entirely, should widespread electoral irregularities be reported. As such, policy continuity, greater protectionism of domestic IT businesses, and increasing intolerance of dissent are likely to become more pronounced after the election.

Legislative Elections in Russia

Join Sibylline CEO, Justin Crump, as he reflects on the state of global terrorism 20 years after 9/11 with three of our experts: Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, James Barth, North America Analyst, and Aedan Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst. In this episode, the team discuss how the terror threat has evolved since 2001, with the significance of recent events in Afghanistan, the emerging risks of today, and from right-wing extremism to single-issue threat actors.

The State of Global Terrorism on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11

Our Lead Analyst for Global Risk, John Breen, joins Ignacio Ayala, Latin America Analyst and Isabelle Mallon, Associate Analyst for the Americas to discuss the impact of the crisis in Haiti on humanitarian workers, NGOs, and businesses on the ground. The team will analyse how a 7.2 magnitude earthquake and Tropical Storm Grace will deepen the country’s political and socio-economic woes, paving the way for the expansion of criminal organisations across the country.

Discussing the Crisis in Haiti after the Earthquake and Tropical Storm.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the unfolding crisis have dominated the global headlines in recent days. While the eventual fall of the civilian government in Kabul had been foreseen, the speed of the Taliban's advance and the capitulation of the Afghan National Army shocked the international community. As many foreign governments struggle in the chaotic evacuation operations, the Taliban continues to assert its authority, and seeks to bolster its political legitimacy and international recognition by pledging for an "inclusive Islamic government". However, many remain sceptical about the sincerity of the group's promises, dismissing them as a mere "PR campaign". Others are pondering what the return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan means for the country and the wider region. In this week's podcast, join your host Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst along with Supriya Ravishankar, our South Asia Analyst, and Aedan Mordecai, our Asia-Pacific Analyst to discuss the latest situation in Afghanistan and the possible political and security implications under a Taliban government.

Discussing the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2021 report has garnered significant attention since this week's publication, heralding a grim warning of a 'code red for humanity'. What do the findings of the report mean in practice for firms operating across Europe and Eurasia, and which regions will be most at risk? Join Liana Semchuk, our Europe-Eurasia Lead Analyst, Louis Cox-Brusseau, Europe Analyst, and Alex Lord, Europe-Eurasia Analyst, for the key takeaways from the IPCC's 2021 report.

Discussing the IPCC's 2021 Climate Change Report

Join your host Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, along with Louis Cox-Brusseau and Zsofia Wolford our Europe Analysts to discuss the ongoing tensions between Hungary, Poland and the European Commission. Tensions increased recently as the Commission initiated legal proceedings against Hungary over a controversial anti-LGBTQI+ law. This comes as revelations from the Pegasus surveillance scandal suggested independent media and opposition figures in Hungary were overwhelmingly targeted by state surveillance. Elsewhere in the Visegrad region, concerns remain over the independence of the judiciary in Poland and media freedoms in the Czech Republic, ensuring that tensions with Brussels are set to increase in the long term.

Hungary and Poland: In the wake of the Pegasus scandal, tensions with the EU rise over rule-of-law and media freedoms

Join this week’s host, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst of the Americas, along with Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, and Rhiannon Phillips, Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss Tunisia's deepening political deadlock, which has recently come to a head, with President Kais Saied dismissing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspending parliament. The impact this governmental crisis has on the already stagnant policy will be significant, as Tunisia faces fresh waves of Covid-19 infections and mounting socio-economic strife. President Saied's actions could also threaten Tunisia's democracy, with the 2014 constitution at the heart of the crisis.

Mounting Political Crisis Threatens Tunisia's Democracy

On 9 July violent protests broke out across Kwa-Zulu Natal, quickly spreading to Gauteng, resulting in widespread looting and arson, with clashes resulting in hundreds of deaths. Following the deployment of 25,000 soldiers, calm was eventually restored, but not before an estimated ZAR 50 billion in damages was caused, impacting around 40,000 businesses. While the initial flashpoint may have been the arrest of former president Jacob Zuma, economic unrest was the key factor impacting the intensity and characteristics of the unrest.   This week's podcast discusses the events and drivers around the unrest and the long term implications this may have on the country's economic health with your host Alexander Parsons, along with Sub Saharan Africa Analyst Benedict Manzin and Edie Lipton, Associate Sub Saharan Africa Analyst.

Socio-economic unrest threatens to disrupt South Africa's recovery

US President Joe Biden is expecting a 45-day update on a US investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. The investigation, led by the US intelligence services, is drawing widespread media attention, with scientists, political scientists and health experts weighing in on the polarising hypothesis of whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. While evidence to support the lab leak theory remains purely circumstantial, the US investigation comes amid strained relations between Beijing and Washington, particularly as the Biden Administration considers further actions in response to Beijing’s crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, and its treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. How may Washington's virus origin investigation shape the direction of travel for already fraught Sino-US relations? With Covid-19 still affecting much of the world, how will the ongoing feud between the two world's largest economies affect our response to this and future pandemics? Join your host Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline, along with Guo Yu, our Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific and resident China expert, James Hannan, our Americas Analyst and avid Covid-watcher, and John Breen, Lead Analyst for Global Risks.

Impact on US-China Relationship in conjunction with Covid-19 Origin Investigations

With less than 15 days to go to the start of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, the Japanese capital has been placed under a fourth state of emergency amid a fresh surge of Covid-19 infections. The ever-changing pandemic situation has characterised the uncertainty that has shrouded this flagship sporting event, having been already postponed once and attracted notable opposition among the Japanese public. This week's podcast discusses the political and security dynamic concerning the upcoming Tokyo Olympics with your host, Amy Reynolds, along with Hans Horan, Asia-Pacific Analyst and Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst. 

Concerns Surrounding the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games

In recent weeks, a car-bomb attack against an army base hosting US military personnel and an apparent attempt to assassinate President Iván Duque Márquez have raised concerns over the security environment in Colombia. Meanwhile, the country has also witnessed a surge in violent protests in Bogotá and several other cities. In this week's podcast, we discuss the latest security situation in Colombia and assess how it may pan out heading into 2022.

Security Tensions in Colombia

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