In this podcast, Skymet’s Jatin Singh (MD), GP Sharma (President), and Mahesh Palawat (Vice President) present a detailed analysis of the Monsoon 2026 forecast. The team projects that the monsoon is likely to be around 6% below normal, placing it in the below-normal category (90%–95% of the Long Period Average), while 96%–104% is considered normal. A key driver this season is the expected development of El Niño, which may begin with the onset of the monsoon and intensify by late July. While June may not see significant impact, monsoon weakness is likely to set in from July onward, with August and September expected to witness notably reduced rainfall. Interestingly, after years of subdued rainfall, East and Northeast India—including Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and northeastern states—may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. In contrast, Northwest, Central, and parts of West India—Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra—are likely to experience below-normal rainfall. Overall, nearly 60% of the country could face reduced rainfall due to El Niño conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently expected to remain neutral to slightly positive, but may not be strong enough to offset El Niño’s adverse impact, keeping the monsoon under pressure.

In this podcast, Skymet’s Jatin Singh (MD), GP Sharma (President), and Mahesh Palawat (Vice President) present a detailed analysis of the Monsoon 2026 forecast.The team projects that the monsoon is likely to be around 6% below normal, placing it in the below-normal category (90%–95% of the Long Period Average), while 96%–104% is considered normal.A key driver this season is the expected development of El Niño, which may begin with the onset of the monsoon and intensify by late July. While June may not see significant impact, monsoon weakness is likely to set in from July onward, with August and September expected to witness notably reduced rainfall.Interestingly, after years of subdued rainfall, East and Northeast India—including Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and northeastern states—may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. In contrast, Northwest, Central, and parts of West India—Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra—are likely to experience below-normal rainfall.Overall, nearly 60% of the country could face reduced rainfall due to El Niño conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently expected to remain neutral to slightly positive, but may not be strong enough to offset El Niño’s adverse impact, keeping the monsoon under pressure.

Skymet Podcast

Skymet Monsoon Forecast 2026: Shifting Rainfall Patterns Ahead - Deficit Likely in Many Regions | EP-75

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, weather expert Mahesh Palawat discusses the weather outlook for the next 2–3 days and up to a week, helping listeners plan their Christmas and holiday travel more safely. The episode focuses on Delhi-NCR, where falling temperatures have led to persistent cold and chilly conditions. It also explains how recent changes in wind speed and direction have contributed to an improvement in air quality, and what this means in the days ahead. Listeners will also get insights into:<ul><li>Fog conditions across North India’s plains</li><li>Weather trends over hill states</li><li>What to expect at popular tourist destinations</li><li>Weather-based travel precautions for the holiday period</li></ul>

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, weather expert Mahesh Palawat discusses the weather outlook for the next 2–3 days and up to a week, helping listeners plan their Christmas and holiday travel more safely.The episode focuses on Delhi-NCR, where falling temperatures have led to persistent cold and chilly conditions. It also explains how recent changes in wind speed and direction have contributed to an improvement in air quality, and what this means in the days ahead.Listeners will also get insights into:Fog conditions across North India’s plainsWeather trends over hill statesWhat to expect at popular tourist destinationsWeather-based travel precautions for the holiday period

Delhi-NCR, Hills & Tourist Destinations: Will Christmas Weekend Weather Disrupt or Delight? | Skymet Podcast EP-63

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the science behind the Polar Vortex in clear and simple terms. The Polar Vortex is a powerful circulation of extremely cold air and low pressure that typically remains confined over the North and South Poles. However, when this system weakens or becomes unstable, cold air can spill southwards—triggering sudden cold waves, snowfall, and extreme winter conditions across Canada, the United States, Europe, and at times North India.'The episode explores the role of the jet stream, atmospheric layers, and global warming in influencing the behaviour of the Polar Vortex. With ongoing climate change, the vortex is becoming increasingly irregular and unpredictable, making winter weather more volatile across the globe.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the science behind the Polar Vortex in clear and simple terms.The Polar Vortex is a powerful circulation of extremely cold air and low pressure that typically remains confined over the North and South Poles. However, when this system weakens or becomes unstable, cold air can spill southwards—triggering sudden cold waves, snowfall, and extreme winter conditions across Canada, the United States, Europe, and at times North India.'The episode explores the role of the jet stream, atmospheric layers, and global warming in influencing the behaviour of the Polar Vortex. With ongoing climate change, the vortex is becoming increasingly irregular and unpredictable, making winter weather more volatile across the globe.

Why Is Global Warming Disrupting the Polar Vortex? Could North India Face Harsher Winters? | Skymet Podcast EP-61

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the science of air pollution and its complex relationship with climate change in simple, accessible terms.Large parts of North India, particularly Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, and Uttar Pradesh, are currently among the most polluted regions in the country, with AQI levels persistently in the ‘Severe’ to ‘Hazardous’ category. Forecasting pollution remains a major challenge as it depends on multiple weather factors such as wind patterns, temperature, cloud cover, and rainfall.The episode explores how pollution particles influence solar short-wave radiation and Earth’s long-wave radiation. Due to heavy aerosol loading over regions like South Asia, increased reflection leads to a temporary cooling effect, resulting in a relatively lower contribution to global warming compared to greenhouse gases.However, while aerosols may slightly offset warming, their impact on human health is severe—contributing to asthma, COPD, lung diseases, cardiovascular issues, and nervous system disorders.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the science of air pollution and its complex relationship with climate change in simple, accessible terms.Large parts of North India, particularly Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, and Uttar Pradesh, are currently among the most polluted regions in the country, with AQI levels persistently in the ‘Severe’ to ‘Hazardous’ category. Forecasting pollution remains a major challenge as it depends on multiple weather factors such as wind patterns, temperature, cloud cover, and rainfall.The episode explores how pollution particles influence solar short-wave radiation and Earth’s long-wave radiation. Due to heavy aerosol loading over regions like South Asia, increased reflection leads to a temporary cooling effect, resulting in a relatively lower contribution to global warming compared to greenhouse gases.However, while aerosols may slightly offset warming, their impact on human health is severe—contributing to asthma, COPD, lung diseases, cardiovascular issues, and nervous system disorders.

Pollution vs Climate Change: Hazardous AQI Across India--Is It Accelerating Global Warming? | Skymet Podcast EP-58

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, breaks down the evolving La Niña scenario and its implications for India’s weather.El Niño and La Niña are key global climate drivers that influence weather patterns across the world, including India. In recent years, their impacts have shown noticeable shifts from historical trends. According to current assessments, the upcoming La Niña is expected to be weak and short-lived, active mainly between December and February.This could result in slightly below-normal temperatures over North India, with brief cold-wave–like conditions at times, though the likelihood of extreme cold or severe weather remains low. Rainfall during the season is likely to be normal or marginally above normal.The episode also explains how changes in sea surface temperatures, driven by El Niño and La Niña, interact with global warming and influence India’s monsoon behaviour.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, breaks down the evolving La Niña scenario and its implications for India’s weather.El Niño and La Niña are key global climate drivers that influence weather patterns across the world, including India. In recent years, their impacts have shown noticeable shifts from historical trends. According to current assessments, the upcoming La Niña is expected to be weak and short-lived, active mainly between December and February.This could result in slightly below-normal temperatures over North India, with brief cold-wave–like conditions at times, though the likelihood of extreme cold or severe weather remains low. Rainfall during the season is likely to be normal or marginally above normal.The episode also explains how changes in sea surface temperatures, driven by El Niño and La Niña, interact with global warming and influence India’s monsoon behaviour.

El Niño vs La Niña: What Lies Ahead for India's Winter and Monsoon? | Skymet Podcast EP-57

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the track, potential impact, and most affected regions of Cyclone Montha. The storm is currently active near 12°N and 85°E and may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm within the next few hours. Montha is expected to make landfall near Kakinada coast in Andhra Pradesh by tomorrow evening, bringing winds up to 90 km/h and heavy rainfall. Coastal areas including Kakinada, Rajahmundry, Konaseema, Visakhapatnam, and Machilipatnam are on alert. Authorities have closed schools and colleges, begun evacuation efforts, and warned of possible disruptions to rail, road, and air services.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the track, potential impact, and most affected regions of Cyclone Montha. The storm is currently active near 12°N and 85°E and may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm within the next few hours. Montha is expected to make landfall near Kakinada coast in Andhra Pradesh by tomorrow evening, bringing winds up to 90 km/h and heavy rainfall. Coastal areas including Kakinada, Rajahmundry, Konaseema, Visakhapatnam, and Machilipatnam are on alert. Authorities have closed schools and colleges, begun evacuation efforts, and warned of possible disruptions to rail, road, and air services.

Cyclone Montha Update: When and Where Will the Storm Make Landfall? | Skymet Podcast EP-55

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses in detail the formation and trajectory of the upcoming Cyclonic Storm “Montha (or Maantha)” over the Arabian Sea. The system is expected to develop as a low-pressure area around October 18–19 over the southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region, gradually intensifying into a severe cyclonic storm. While the storm is unlikely to make landfall along the Indian coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, or Gujarat, it may bring strong winds and light to moderate rainfall to these coastal areas. The Sokotra Islands, Somalia, and Yemen coasts are likely to experience more severe impacts. The episode also touches on the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon and the onset of the Northeast Monsoon, both expected to occur on the same day — October 16, marking a rare meteorological event.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses in detail the formation and trajectory of the upcoming Cyclonic Storm “Montha (or Maantha)” over the Arabian Sea. The system is expected to develop as a low-pressure area around October 18–19 over the southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region, gradually intensifying into a severe cyclonic storm. While the storm is unlikely to make landfall along the Indian coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, or Gujarat, it may bring strong winds and light to moderate rainfall to these coastal areas. The Sokotra Islands, Somalia, and Yemen coasts are likely to experience more severe impacts. The episode also touches on the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon and the onset of the Northeast Monsoon, both expected to occur on the same day — October 16, marking a rare meteorological event.

Cyclone 'Montha' Brewing Over the Arabian Sea -- Which Countries Are at Risk and What Will Be Its Impact on India? | Skymet Podcast EP-54

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, shares insights as the Southwest Monsoon 2025 approaches its final phase. Recently, active systems over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea have drawn the attention of meteorologists — especially Cyclone Shakti, the first major storm of the season, which followed an unusual and unpredictable track. The episode explores how this system originated near Gujarat, moved across the Arabian Sea, and why some global agencies classified it as a cyclone while India’s weather agency did not. Tune in to understand how tropical cyclones form, the role of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), and why storms over the Arabian Sea rarely impact Indian coastlines. The discussion also highlights the early signs of the Northeast Monsoon’s arrival.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, shares insights as the Southwest Monsoon 2025 approaches its final phase. Recently, active systems over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea have drawn the attention of meteorologists — especially Cyclone Shakti, the first major storm of the season, which followed an unusual and unpredictable track. The episode explores how this system originated near Gujarat, moved across the Arabian Sea, and why some global agencies classified it as a cyclone while India’s weather agency did not. Tune in to understand how tropical cyclones form, the role of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), and why storms over the Arabian Sea rarely impact Indian coastlines. The discussion also highlights the early signs of the Northeast Monsoon’s arrival.

Monsoon 2025: The Rainy Season Nears Its End -- When Will the Northeast Monsoon Arrive? | Skymet Podcast EP-53

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains why the 2025 monsoon season has been unlike any other and how it will influence the coming months. The season, spanning June 1 to September 30, ended at 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — a remarkable record in recent decades. He discusses how El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions shaped the monsoon this year, leading to rainfall deficits in Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh, while Marathwada and Rayalaseema saw late recovery. The episode also delves into the declining rainfall trend in Northeast India, the impact of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and expert insights on the regional distribution of rainfall across the country.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains why the 2025 monsoon season has been unlike any other and how it will influence the coming months. The season, spanning June 1 to September 30, ended at 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — a remarkable record in recent decades. He discusses how El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions shaped the monsoon this year, leading to rainfall deficits in Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh, while Marathwada and Rayalaseema saw late recovery. The episode also delves into the declining rainfall trend in Northeast India, the impact of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and expert insights on the regional distribution of rainfall across the country.

Impact on Farmers, Water Storage, and Crops -- When Will the Northeast Monsoon Arrive? | Skymet Podcast EP-52

In this week’s Skymet Weather Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses the final phase and overall journey of the 2025 Southwest Monsoon. This year’s season was remarkable, as the monsoon withdrew from Delhi and North India on September 24, a day earlier than the normal date of September 25 — the earliest since 2013. However, monsoon withdrawal doesn’t mean an end to rainfall entirely, as light showers may still occur due to Western Disturbances and other weather systems. The 2025 monsoon was Above Normal (107%), with fairly balanced rainfall distribution across the country, except for Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, and Northeast India, which recorded a deficit. Core monsoon regions including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan received good rainfall, aided by the absence of a long break monsoon phase, keeping the season’s rainfall pattern well-balanced.

In this week’s Skymet Weather Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses the final phase and overall journey of the 2025 Southwest Monsoon. This year’s season was remarkable, as the monsoon withdrew from Delhi and North India on September 24, a day earlier than the normal date of September 25 — the earliest since 2013. However, monsoon withdrawal doesn’t mean an end to rainfall entirely, as light showers may still occur due to Western Disturbances and other weather systems. The 2025 monsoon was Above Normal (107%), with fairly balanced rainfall distribution across the country, except for Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, and Northeast India, which recorded a deficit. Core monsoon regions including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan received good rainfall, aided by the absence of a long break monsoon phase, keeping the season’s rainfall pattern well-balanced.

Above Normal Monsoon: Earliest Withdrawal from Delhi -- When, Where, and How Much It Rained Across India | Skymet Podcast EP-51

Our 50th episode marks not just a milestone, but the beginning of a new wave of conversations—diving deeper into the science, technology, and progress shaping our future. In this special edition, Skymet CTO Vivek Singh is joined by Dr. Kenji Takeda, Director of Research Incubation at Microsoft Research, to explore how Artificial Intelligence is transforming weather and climate forecasting. At the center of this discussion is Aurora, Microsoft’s cutting-edge AI model. Aurora can do what traditional forecasting systems struggle with—running multiple tasks simultaneously. From rapid weather predictions and storm/cyclone warnings to air quality monitoring and climate change analysis, Aurora brings both speed and unmatched accuracy, especially for extreme weather events. Dr. Takeda explains how Aurora reduces reliance on supercomputers, democratizing weather forecasting and putting advanced insights into the hands of researchers, policymakers, and communities worldwide.Join us as we celebrate 50 episodes and step into this next chapter—where AI bridges science and society, helping us prepare for disasters, adapt to climate change, and understand our environment in ways never possible before.

Our 50th episode marks not just a milestone, but the beginning of a new wave of conversations—diving deeper into the science, technology, and progress shaping our future.In this special edition, Skymet CTO Vivek Singh is joined by Dr. Kenji Takeda, Director of Research Incubation at Microsoft Research, to explore how Artificial Intelligence is transforming weather and climate forecasting.At the center of this discussion is Aurora, Microsoft’s cutting-edge AI model. Aurora can do what traditional forecasting systems struggle with—running multiple tasks simultaneously. From rapid weather predictions and storm/cyclone warnings to air quality monitoring and climate change analysis, Aurora brings both speed and unmatched accuracy, especially for extreme weather events.Dr. Takeda explains how Aurora reduces reliance on supercomputers, democratizing weather forecasting and putting advanced insights into the hands of researchers, policymakers, and communities worldwide.Join us as we celebrate 50 episodes and step into this next chapter—where AI bridges science and society, helping us prepare for disasters, adapt to climate change, and understand our environment in ways never possible before.

Microsoft Aurora: How AI is Transforming Weather and Climate Forecasting | Skymet Podcast EP-50

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses the current status of Monsoon 2025 and what to expect over the next 12–13 days. This year’s season has seen above-normal rainfall overall — 9% higher in June, 5% higher in July–August, and nearly 15–16% above normal in September. However, deficits remain in Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and the Northeast, while southern India also recorded comparatively less rainfall. Monsoon withdrawal began from Rajasthan on September 14 and will soon cover Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh. This episode also explores rainfall trends in Delhi, Rajasthan, Bihar, the Northeast, and southern India, and explains why 2025 is being called one of the most unusual monsoons of the past 50–60 years. Plus, insights on when the Northeast Monsoon is expected to arrive.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses the current status of Monsoon 2025 and what to expect over the next 12–13 days. This year’s season has seen above-normal rainfall overall — 9% higher in June, 5% higher in July–August, and nearly 15–16% above normal in September. However, deficits remain in Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and the Northeast, while southern India also recorded comparatively less rainfall. Monsoon withdrawal began from Rajasthan on September 14 and will soon cover Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh. This episode also explores rainfall trends in Delhi, Rajasthan, Bihar, the Northeast, and southern India, and explains why 2025 is being called one of the most unusual monsoons of the past 50–60 years. Plus, insights on when the Northeast Monsoon is expected to arrive.

Monsoon Withdrawal 2025: From Delhi to Bihar -- Where Rain Surged and Where It Fell Short | Podcast EP-49

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the current status of Monsoon 2025’s onset and withdrawal. While pan-India rainfall has been near normal this year, predicting the exact date of withdrawal remains tricky due to subjective conditions such as moisture decline, satellite imagery, anticyclones, and circulation patterns. Official withdrawal begins from western Rajasthan and often stretches from late September into October. According to Skymet, revisions in withdrawal dates are likely this year too. The episode also discusses the latest rainfall situation and forecasts for Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and the Konkan-Goa region. Will the monsoon follow its normal withdrawal pattern this time, or will climate change and global warming play a bigger role? Tune in to find out.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the current status of Monsoon 2025’s onset and withdrawal. While pan-India rainfall has been near normal this year, predicting the exact date of withdrawal remains tricky due to subjective conditions such as moisture decline, satellite imagery, anticyclones, and circulation patterns. Official withdrawal begins from western Rajasthan and often stretches from late September into October. According to Skymet, revisions in withdrawal dates are likely this year too. The episode also discusses the latest rainfall situation and forecasts for Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and the Konkan-Goa region. Will the monsoon follow its normal withdrawal pattern this time, or will climate change and global warming play a bigger role? Tune in to find out.

Monsoon 2025: Normal Withdrawal or Impact of Climate Change? | Podcast EP-48

In this week’s Skymet Podcast (EP-47), AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses the unusual progress of Monsoon 2025 and what lies ahead. June, July, and August have all recorded above-normal rainfall, with the country achieving 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — a rare situation last witnessed in 2007. Although the beginning of August was relatively weak, the second half brought heavy rains that pushed the national average to 5% above normal. Looking ahead, September is likely to deliver good rainfall in the first half, followed by a decline in the latter part of the month. Mumbai has already faced extreme weather with over 200 mm of rainfall in a short span, while Gujarat, South Rajasthan, and North Maharashtra are expected to see more heavy downpours. However, deficiencies remain in East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and across Northeast India, where Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh are still facing a 30–40% shortfall, despite slight improvements in Bihar and Rayalaseema. Tune in to find out when the monsoon is likely to withdraw and how different regions may be impacted in the weeks to come.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast (EP-47), AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses the unusual progress of Monsoon 2025 and what lies ahead. June, July, and August have all recorded above-normal rainfall, with the country achieving 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — a rare situation last witnessed in 2007. Although the beginning of August was relatively weak, the second half brought heavy rains that pushed the national average to 5% above normal. Looking ahead, September is likely to deliver good rainfall in the first half, followed by a decline in the latter part of the month. Mumbai has already faced extreme weather with over 200 mm of rainfall in a short span, while Gujarat, South Rajasthan, and North Maharashtra are expected to see more heavy downpours. However, deficiencies remain in East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and across Northeast India, where Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh are still facing a 30–40% shortfall, despite slight improvements in Bihar and Rayalaseema. Tune in to find out when the monsoon is likely to withdraw and how different regions may be impacted in the weeks to come.

Tracking Monsoon 2025: Abundant Rains, Regional Deficits, and the Road to Withdrawal Skymet Podcast EP-47

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains how global oceanic factors are influencing the progress of Monsoon 2025. The Niño 3.4 index over the Pacific is currently at -0.4, pointing towards a developing La Niña phase which is considered favorable for the Indian monsoon. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is highly negative at -1.2—the lowest since August 2022—which may suppress rainfall, as a positive IOD usually supports monsoon activity. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) stands at +0.6, indicating neutral conditions. So far, up to 26th August, the country has received 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall, reflecting an above-normal season. Northwest India (including Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Delhi-NCR) and Central India (Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh) have experienced good rains, while Bihar and parts of Northeast India recorded a shortfall earlier, though conditions have improved in recent days. Tune in to understand how September’s rains may unfold and what role El Niño, La Niña, and IOD will play in steering the rest of the season.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains how global oceanic factors are influencing the progress of Monsoon 2025. The Niño 3.4 index over the Pacific is currently at -0.4, pointing towards a developing La Niña phase which is considered favorable for the Indian monsoon. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is highly negative at -1.2—the lowest since August 2022—which may suppress rainfall, as a positive IOD usually supports monsoon activity. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) stands at +0.6, indicating neutral conditions. So far, up to 26th August, the country has received 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall, reflecting an above-normal season. Northwest India (including Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Delhi-NCR) and Central India (Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh) have experienced good rains, while Bihar and parts of Northeast India recorded a shortfall earlier, though conditions have improved in recent days. Tune in to understand how September’s rains may unfold and what role El Niño, La Niña, and IOD will play in steering the rest of the season.

Monsoon 2025: El Niño, La Niña & IOD Explained | Skymet Podcast EP-46

Skymet presents a series of insightful podcasts where our expert meteorologists provide in-depth weather analysis and updates on climate change and its radical effects. Our series features India’s most trusted weather professionals, offering detailed insights into how weather patterns impact various industries and livelihoods. Tune in for expert analysis of climate change, its consequences, and strategies for management, mitigation and adaptation. From forecasting storms to examining long-term climate trends, Skymet delivers precise and actionable insights to help you stay informed and prepared.

Skymet presents a series of insightful podcasts where our expert meteorologists provide in-depth weather analysis and updates on climate change and its radical effects. Our series features India’s most trusted weather professionals, offering detailed insights into how weather patterns impact various industries and livelihoods. Tune in for expert analysis of climate change, its consequences, and strategies for management, mitigation and adaptation. From forecasting storms to examining long-term climate trends, Skymet delivers precise and actionable insights to help you stay informed and prepared. 

hubhopper

Skymet Podcast

hubhopper