With his poll numbers falling, U.S. President Joe Biden is under pressure to do something—anything—to get inflation under control. That’s led his administration to scrutinize the prices you pay at the grocery store, even if some critics argue alleged price-gouging by consumer products giants is a convenient bogeyman. This week’s episode dives into the debate around corporate consolidation and whether it’s giving too much power to those companies. First, Bloomberg editor Molly Smith visits a New Jersey butcher shop where the owner suspects greedy multinational firms are behind the doubling of prices for some cuts of meat. The companies are pleading innocent, blaming instead labor shortages and soaring demand. But Bill Baer, a former antitrust chief at both the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission, sides with the butcher. He tells host Stephanie Flanders that some companies in concentrated industries are boosting prices well beyond just covering their extra costs. Finally, Rome-based reporter Alessandra Migliaccio reports on the “Groundhog Day” nature of the Italian government, with its long history of cyclical political crisis, salvation, infighting and crisis again. With Prime Minister Mario Draghi potentially leaving his post to become Italy’s next president, a more ceremonial role, many worry it won’t be long until the cycle begins again.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Stephanomics

Are Price-Gouging Consumer Giants to Blame for High Inflation?

When facing an economic crisis, the Fed's playbook normally skews toward juicing the economy too much rather than too little. After all, in the last go-round in 2007, being too stingy might have helped trigger a depression. Fifteen years later though, America's central bankers face the opposite problem: they need to move fast to cool inflation. That's one of the takeaways from a panel discussion among economists this week, moderated by Stephanie. With U.S. inflation at 7%, the Fed needs to do more than expected, said Bill Dudley, a former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and senior adviser to Bloomberg Economics. Dramatically raising interest rates by a half-point in March is worth a look, Dudley said, though unlikely to happen.  Meantime, Bloomberg chief U.S. economist Anna Wong explains why U.S. workers, who've gone missing lately, are likely to rejoin the labor force soon. And, chief global economist Tom Orlik shares why President Xi Jinping isn't about to let China's economy implode while he seeks to cement lifetime power. Finally, on a lighter note, reporter David Hood shares everyone's frustrations with the IRS, where customer service is so bad that some tax professionals are hiring robots to wait in line for them. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Why the Fed Must Move Fast to Tame Inflation

Closed schools. Empty shelves. Workers out sick. Almost two years after Covid-19 overturned the U.S. economy, "it's like deja vu all over again,'' in the words of baseball great and eminent wordsmith Yogi Berra. This week, we dive into how the omicron variant is likely to disrupt plans across America this winter. But we also explore how another country is bouncing back, as Stephanie chats with French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire about his nation's robust economic comeback.  But first, senior reporter Shawn Donnan gets a firsthand look at omicron's disruption at a Washington-area pizzeria. He explains why one economist likens the current infection surge to the "mother of all winter storms," one that cancels flights and causes supermarket shortages of everything from chicken to tofu.  Next, we size up French President Emmanuel Macron's reelection chances this spring and a campaign centered on the nation's humming economy. Le Maire tells Flanders that France's employment rate, its highest in 50 years, is a sign of Macron's success. Paris-based economics reporter Will Horobin shares why the nation's economic recovery may sway France's voters more than its culture-war clashes.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Finance Minister Le Maire Explains the French Economic Comeback

With shortages at the grocery store and not enough people willing to work, 2022 is starting to look a lot like 2020. But beneath the ugly exterior, the world's economies have learned to cope with Covid's fallout, and the supply chain debacle in particular. One country is even thriving.  In the first episode of the new year, we offer two fairly optimistic assessments. Bloomberg Senior Editor Brendan Murray shares with Stephanie Flanders how companies are adapting to the fast-spreading omicron variant and finding ways to function as more workers fall ill. He also explains that the success of China's zero tolerance policy may determine the length of the supply chain crisis. We then travel to Mexico and the Chihuahuan Desert, where U.S. companies can't build factories fast enough. Tired of backups at Los Angeles-area ports and no-shows by American workers, manufacturers are moving production to the booming border town of Ciudad Juarez, Bloomberg manufacturing reporter Thomas Black reports, in a pandemic victory for Mexico's economy.  Finally, Tokyo-based economics reporter Yoshiaki Nohara brings us a dispatch about the side effects of moving toward a greener future. Japan's leadership is trying develop its renewable energy industry by putting offshore wind farms near places like Iki island, off Japan's southwestern coast. But fishermen worry the noise and radio waves will drive away all the fish and cripple their industry. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Economies Have Adapted to a World Where Covid Calls the Shots

While still recovering from a coronavirus-induced recession, the U.S. may be rushing into a new downturn, this time thanks to inflation. Its economy faces no shortage of potential peril in 2022, Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik says, with the Federal Reserve looking set to raise interest rates to fight rising prices, and as Congress seems unlikely to pass any more big spending bills. That's one of the takeaways from the Stephanomics global preview of 2022, in which Stephanie and a panel of experts look into their crystal balls for political and economic insights. On the political front, French President Emmanuel Macron looks poised to win reelection in France next spring, but U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a 40% chance of losing power, with "strong upward pressure" on that number, says Mujtaba Rahman of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. In the U.S., the fate of President Joe Biden and fellow Democrats may depend on inflation. With midterm elections on the horizon, they could be toast if it lingers too long, Bloomberg White House reporter Nancy Cook says. Bloomberg Green editor Aaron Rutkoff sees Biden being powerless to improve U.S. emissions if he can't get the climate component of his Build Back Better agenda passed. And Orlik sees a novelty in the U.S.-China relationship, where China will probably go its own way and cut interest rates while the U.S. raises them. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

The Stephanomics Global Preview for 2022

Economically at least, this holiday season feels a bit more like it belongs to Ebenezer Scrooge than Santa Claus. Amid a resurgent pandemic, there are shortages at the grocery store and the highest inflation in almost 40 years. So who better to sum up 2021 and forecast 2022 than Larry Summers, whose contrarian warnings about inflation have, at least at this point, largely proven accurate. On this special holiday edition of Stephanomics, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary shares with host Stephanie Flanders how he arrived at his prediction that inflation would run higher than most everyone else expected, and why he fears "we are already reaching a point where it will be challenging to reduce inflation without giving rise to recession.” Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid Bloomberg contributor, also explains why he thinks "running the economy hot" is unlikely to help U.S. workers get a larger slice of the economic pie. If inflation isn't enough to further dampen your spirits, Summers also tells Flanders why the nation may see a double whammy of recession and "secular stagnation," an unappealing mix of weak growth and persistently low interest rates. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Larry Summers Predicts the Future, and It Doesn't Look Good

The so-called great resignation that’s confounding businesses in the West has a counterpart in a most unlikely place: China. This week, we offer a double dose of China’s “lie flat” movement, which is challenging the nation’s historic industriousness, as well as a glimpse into how America’s massive pandemic bailout juiced spending, especially among historically disadvantaged groups. First, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock explains why many Chinese workers are suddenly whiling away the hours playing online games instead of toiling on the factory floor. After years of clocking in at 9 a.m. and clocking out at 9 p.m., six days a week, some are saying enough is enough. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shuli Ren shares how President Xi Jinping isn’t amused with this trend. China’s leadership meanwhile is eager to stop pumping out so many university graduates, preferring instead to steer youth into vocational training and high-value manufacturing. The hope is to replicate Germany’s success. Next, data reporter Andre Tartar unearths some revealing credit and debit card numbers to show how government payments during the pandemic boosted spending by Black Americans as much as 40% over 2019 levels. For a time at least, it shrunk the nation's persistent racial wealth gap. Finally, Hong Kong reporter Oanh Ha shares why some big food producers are betting that soon you may be getting some of your protein from crickets. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Chinese Workers Are Saying Enough Is Enough, and Xi Is Not Amused

It seems nothing can hurt the world's billionaires, not the worst pandemic in a century or a global recession. On this week's podcast, New York-based reporter Augusta Saraiva shares how the wealthiest only added to their fortunes as Covid-19 killed millions and flattened economies. Indeed, the super-rich accumulated $4.1 trillion just as 100 million of the planet's less fortunate fell into extreme poverty, according to estimates by the World Bank. Two years into the pandemic, some 2,750 billionaires now control 3.5% of the world's wealth -- almost double the holdings of the planet's poorest 50%, according to the Paris-based Global Inequality Lab.  For those whose holdings don't reach ten figures but must still buy holiday gifts, Hong Kong-based economy reporter Enda Curran reports on the run-up in toy prices. He visits the maker of the Mighty Megasaur Megahunter T-Rex, who warns that consumers will shell out as much as 20% more this year because of the supply chain pinch. And finally, we provide a double dose of German politics as Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down following 16 years in office. Berlin-based producer Aggi Cantrill reports from the German parliament while Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, explains why Germany's smooth transition of power is so different from the kind of rancor that has befallen the U.K. and U.S.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

How Global Catastrophe Has Only Made Billionaires Richer

Initially, Jerome Powell said the highest inflation in decades was going to be "transitory." This week, the world's most powerful central banker said the nebulous term should be retired. Such is the high-stakes guessing game going on at the Federal Reserve and the world's central banks, which risk losing public confidence should inflation continue to prove less, well, transitory than expected. This week, Stephanie delves into the messaging strategies of both central bankers and American corporations. First, Stephen King, a British economist and senior economic adviser to HSBC, suggests Powell's openness to cutting support for the U.S. financial system is meant to reestablish trust with the public by signaling a willingness to tackle inflation. Next, U.S.-based economics reporter Matt Boesler details the selective messaging of U.S. corporations, where profits are up 37% over last year despite rampant CEO complaints about wage inflation. Finally, Geneva-based economics reporter Bryce Baschuk shares how the debate over intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines is a chance for the World Trade Organization to become relevant again. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Inflation Poses a Growing Credibility Risk for Central Banks

This week we unpack two very different challenges facing global leaders: the climate crisis and domestic violence. First, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry joins host Stephanie Flanders to share why he thinks the Glasgow Climate Pact is more than just words on paper. Among other achievements, Kerry notes that countries representing most of the world’s gross domestic product agreed to cut methane emissions by 30% this decade. Such cuts to this dangerous greenhouse gas (if they actually happen) would be a worthy accomplishment, even if rich nations have yet to fulfill a pledge to steer $100 billion a year to poorer nations facing the brunt of climate change. As countries try to cut carbon, whether by a tax on emissions or other measures, leaders can limit the effects on inflation by adopting the measures sooner rather than later—when more drastic measures may be needed, Bloomberg’s senior Euro-area economist Maeva Cousin says. Finally, Frankfurt-based economics reporter Carolynn Look shares the harrowing story of a German woman who escaped a violent partner and how some European companies are stepping forward to fight domestic abuse. They have a financial imperative as well as a moral one: gender-based violence is estimated by the European Institute for Gender Equality to cost the European Union economy 366 billion euros ($409 billion) a year. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

John Kerry Explains Why the Glasgow Climate Deal Matters

As if rising sea levels and fiercer cyclones weren't enough to worry about, the climate crisis is already cutting crop yields and could lead to widespread food shortages. That's the grave warning from the United Nations, which cautions that farmers won't meet a projected 50% increase in food demand by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions stay high.  In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders tackles how to feed almost 10 billion people, the projected population of the planet in three decades. She turned to four leaders in global agriculture at Bloomberg's New Economy Forum in Singapore for their insight. Technology will play a starring role, says Werner Baumann, chairman of German healthcare and agricultural giant Bayer AG. One Bayer project involves developing "short-stature" corn that resists stalk breakage and can be planted more densely. Cargill Inc. Chairman David MacLennan insists genetically modified organisms must be part of the solution, though GMOs are a controversial component of modern agriculture with significant opposition. Finally, the panelists had some ideas regarding a tweet from the world's richest man, who last month offered to put up $6 billion if a UN official could prove the money would solve world hunger. Sara Menker, chief executive of agricultural analytics firm Gro Intelligence, suggests Elon Musk's money would be best spent creating a new financial institution to help modernize how many crops are traded. More fundamentally, Musk's money could build roads and crop storage facilities so farmers in developing nations could more easily get their products to market, says Alloysius Attah of Farmerline, which helps farmers embrace technology. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Global Warming Is Pushing Humanity Toward Hunger. Can It Be Stopped?

One by one, countries that sought to stamp out Covid-19's spread with aggressive lockdowns are giving up zero-tolerance policies and learning to live with the virus. The most notable exception is China, which has decided to cling to the strategy. This week, the new attitude among many nations toward the coronavirus is getting a major test in Singapore, host of Bloomberg's New Economy Forum. The city-state recently experienced its biggest flare-up of the pandemic.  In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders discusses Singapore's determination to move forward with the annual meeting of political, business and academic leaders with NEF editorial director Andrew Browne. In many ways, Singapore is intent on signaling it's open for business and that "remaining in lockdown just wasn't an option,'' Browne says. It's a gamble that others in the region are now taking, including New Zealand, which had been widely praised for containing the virus via severe restrictions on daily life, but hasn't been able to shake a steady infection rate. For now, China is bucking the shift away from zero-tolerance. It's still willing to shut down at the slightest hint of an outbreak. However, the approach is coming at great cost to its economy, Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik tells Flanders. With China also facing threats from energy shortages and distress in its giant real estate industry, the country's traditional 6% or 7% annual growth could be halved in 2022, Orlik warns. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

More Nations Bend to the Economic Cost of Covid Zero-Tolerance

Robots may replace us eventually, but for now Covid-19 has revealed just how desperate businesses are for workers of the human variety, and the broader economic consequences of that desperation. Companies are raising wages to attract talent, which in turn is helping boost inflation. It hit 6.2% in the U.S. last month and is running at 8.1% in Russia. This week, Bloomberg reporters on two continents share how and why workers are slow to return to the office, factory and field. First, New York-based economics reporter Jill Shah explains the mystery behind the U.S. labor market, which at once has millions of unemployed and as many as 11 million openings. A few of the reasons? Some are waiting to land a remote job, others can't find childcare--and at least a few are trying to make a living trading cryptocurrency.  Meantime, Moscow-based reporter Áine Quinn finds Russia's labor shortage is more easily explained. Many migrant workers from Central Asia left during the pandemic and didn't return, while the nation's high infection and death rates has many Russians staying home. Finally, Stephanie Flanders discusses the labor shortage's lasting effects with Jason Furman, a professor of the practice of economic policy at Harvard University. History tells us that many long-term unemployed will see their skills erode, leaving them at a competitive disadvantage, Furman says.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

What’s Really Causing the Labor Shortage

As if controlling spiraling inflation wasn’t enough to worry about, the world’s central bankers are under increasing pressure to help solve climate change, income inequality and myriad other societal ills. What’s more, elected officials in some nations are trying to exert more power over bankers for political ends. Stephanie Flanders debates the proper role of a central banker with three esteemed women economists, Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank, Carmen Reinhart of the World Bank and Minouche Shafik of the London School of Economics and Political Science. While bankers can’t be the “white knight” who rushes in to save the world from global warming or income inequality, they can use their bully pulpit to prod slow-moving politicians to act, Shafik says. Schnabel goes a step further, arguing that tough talk alone won’t suffice, and that central bankers should use what economic levers they have available to advance important causes. Of the three economists, Reinhart raised the most concern about inflation, currently running at an annual rate of 5.4% in the U.S. and 4.1% in the euro area. Yes, the world needs to address the climate crisis, she says, but nothing will stop the green economy faster than high prices, which may lead to tighter monetary policies and a steep drop in financing in developing nations. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Should Central Banks Be Responsible for Saving the World?

More than a decade after the U.S. subprime crisis sparked the Great Recession, the threat of default at giant property developer Evergrande is raising the prospect that ghost towns of unoccupied homes could trigger a China property slump.  On this week’s podcast, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock visits Evergrande to see how the company is trying to raise money and avoid default, including by trying to sell its headquarters. Guest host Tom Orlik delves into the issues with Rhodium Group Director Logan Wright and Bloomberg economist David Qu, a former financial stability regulator at the People’s Bank of China. And finally, with Halloween just around the corner, Orlik ponders the scariest risks to the global economy with three Bloomberg economists: Anna Wong in Washington, Dan Hanson in London and Ziad Daoud in Dubai.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

How China and Evergrande Are Trying to Avoid Disaster

Will Covid-19 reshape the global economy or simply shrink it? What are nations doing to protect jobs and businesses from the fallout, and what will the long-term consequences be for labor markets, global supply chains and government finances? On Stephanomics, a podcast hosted by Bloomberg Economics head Stephanie Flanders—the former BBC economics editor and chief market strategist for Europe at JPMorgan Asset Management—we combine reports from Bloomberg journalists around the world and conversations with internationally respected experts on these and other issues to bring the global economy to life.

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Stephanomics

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