This episode of Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Brue Liu, CEO at Esoterica Capital, and portfolio manager of the Esoterica Thematic ETF Trust (WUGI). Among the topics discussed: 5G technology is much more than just an upgrade from 4G, says Liu. If one thinks of 4G as enabling the mobile internet, 5G will allow the digitization of every aspect of our lives - from streaming to smart homes to smart factories to remote healthcare to self-driving cars. Another difference - if 4G was mostly a U.S. phenomenon, 5G is global. The evolution to 5G technology will first be felt in semiconductors as all devices will require upgrades. Among Esoterica’s top ten holdings are Nvidia (NVDA), Xilinx (XLNX), Marvell (MRVL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). Speaking of the recent crackdown by Beijing on China’s large tech companies, Liu says these regulatory developments have been a long time coming. The country’s leadership has long felt the tech giants have been extraordinary beneficiaries of hyper-growth, and now it’s time to share some of the wealth, says Liu. As recently seen with Meituan (MPNGF), the companies will reach a settlement with the government, agree to changes, pay a fine, and move along. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Alpha Trader

Capturing the 5G opportunity - Bruce Liu joins Alpha Trader podcast

A special bonus edition of the Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Mike Alfred, founding CEO at BrightScope Digital Assets Data, and a board member at Eaglebrook. Among the topics discussed: Yes it’s nice that the current price action in bitcoin (BTC-USD) is bullish, but Alfred urges focus on the long-term. The size of the network will continue to grow, more institutions are buying in (but haven’t yet publicly announced), even more institutions are going to have to buy in, and there’s no end in sight to federal deficits and central bank money printing. Bitcoin is likely going to seven figures within the next decade, so it doesn’t matter too much whether one buys at $60K or $30K, or anywhere in between. Move over FAANG and make room for CHARM. China’s banning of bitcoin mining has led to an even greater opportunity for North America-based miners. This so-called CHARM group: Core Scientific (XPDI), Hut 8 (HUT), Argo Blockchain (ARBK), Riot Blockchain (RIOT), Marathon Digital (MARA) now has a larger opening to scale up and build market share. Alfred notes the miners are the only players who can create their own bitcoin, they’re hodling onto to all the bitcoin they mine, and their cost of capital is rapidly trending towards zero. Alfred also owns ethereum (ETH-USD), but says it’s a very modest amount vs. his allocation to bitcoin. He considers ethereum as more of a venture capital play on some possibly interesting utility uses. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a truly decentralized, organically-growing monetary network that is continually becoming more valuable. If Bitcoin is successful with potentially billions holding and using it, it doesn’t require a whole lot of imagination to see what one of 21M coins might be worth at some point. Could Bitcoin fail? There’s a non-zero chance, says Alfred, but as the network grows, the chance of this happening continues to slide. Turning to brokerages, Coinbase’s (COIN) stock has had a modestly rough run of it since its IPO, but the action reminds Alfred of Facebook’s initial rough post-IPO trade. As Bitcoin grows, and crypto grows, a well-run Coinbase figures to scale right alongside, even if it faces competition on fees from any number of peers. Look at Schwab ... It’s doing better than ever, even with $0 commissions. After dithering for years, what is the first Bitcoin ETF that the SEC finally approves? It’s a futures-based ETF offered by ProShares which may make for a nice short-term trading vehicle, but is about the last thing any Sats stacker should be interested in. More interesting to Alfred is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has begun the work to convert to an ETF. It’s trading at a 15%-18% discount that will disappear once the ETF conversion takes place - a pretty decent return should that happen in the next 6-12 months. The train has left the station, says Alfred, speaking of questions about whether the U.S. could somehow ban or halt Bitcoin. There are too many states that have encouraged and are receiving Bitcoin-based investment for any national ban. There is a minor risk, concedes Alfred, that a cabal of powerful governments - think U.S., EU, China, India - get together to severely restrict Bitcoin. Alfred puts the chances at about 1%, but even a move like this would only curtail the size of the network, not kill the crypto. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The value case for Bitcoin and the miners - Mike Alfred joins Alpha Trader

On the two-year anniversary of the Alpha Trader podcast, hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher welcome back to the show, Bob Iaccino, co-founder of The Stock Think Tank. Among the topics discussed: While the renewable energy movement is a worthy one, the world isn’t yet ready to run on sun and wind. The lack of investment in fossil fuels has the globe on the verge of, if not already in an energy crisis. Some believe oil would need to be in the triple digits to put a sizable dent in the economy and corporate profits, but Iaccino believes this is already happening at $80. Iaccino reminds that turning the spigots back on for U.S. shale production isn’t as easy as flipping a switch. Even if there were the regulatory appetite to do so (a big if), getting production up and running again requires capital, equipment, labor … all of which are tough to come by at the moment. As far as the short term, Iaccino and team believe the price of oil (CL1:COM) is extended. They’ve covered their longs and are waiting for a pullback to reload. Turning to stocks, Iaccino is bullish in the medium-term, but expects there will be one more washout in the averages prior to a resumption of the uptrend. He’s a bottom-up stock picker and never owns more than a handful of names. Among his holdings right now: Cognizant Technologies (CTSH), Hormel Foods (HRL), Viacom ([[VIAC]], [[VIACA]]), Ford (F), Salesforce (CRM), and Sprott Physical Gold ETF (PHYS). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The brewing energy crisis - Bob Iaccino joins Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking first with Mark Minervini, author of several best-selling books, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard and Think and Trade Like a Champion, among them, and then with Dan David, the founder of short-focused activist-research outfit, Wolfpack Research. Minervini is leading the pack this year in the U.S. Investing Championship in the $1+ money manager category with a whopping 262% gain. Though not a short seller by nature, at least some of Minervini’s gains have come from his decision on September 13 to short the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). What led Minervini to short the market and to remain short was his observation of the weakening technicals beneath the averages - among them, 80% of S&P 500 stocks down 10% or more, and just 38% of Nasdaq names above their 200-day moving averages. Minervini made news last week saying that the technicals of the market remind him of the situation prior to the 1987 crash. Those who extrapolate that statement to him predicting a crash, however, are missing the point. What he’s trying to say is that conditions continue to favor a correction in stocks, so he’s staying short. When the technicals improve, he’ll cover and go long. Dan David is perhaps best known as a featured protagonist in 2018’s, The China Hustle, a film that documented his work in uncovering fraud in China-based U.S. stock listings. At the root of The China Hustle is that it was legal in China to defraud foreign investors. That remains so today, says David, so bottom line: The financial statements of Chinese companies - from giants Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) all the way down to the smallest of small caps - cannot be trusted. And though David doesn’t trade the Chinese megacaps, he assures that the regulatory crackdown on these players is for real. “Thou shall not be bigger than the state,” he reminds. It’s all about control, says David, who isn’t surprised by China’s moves against Bitcoin. A government that doesn’t allow its currency to float or guarantee basic freedoms can hardly be expected to sit aside while citizens keep their money off the books. And on Taiwan, David is certain that China will take over/invade at some point, and that the U.S. will be powerless to stop it. Whatever one thinks of Chairman Xi, says David, he’s a man who does what he says he’ll do … And he’s said as much. Turning to active trades, David continues to be profitably short what he considers to be frauds like SGOCO Group (SGOC) and Moxian (MOXC), and a SPAC deal - Skillz (SKLZ) - where he believes the sponsors were too aggressive with their projected numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mark Minervini and Dan David join Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth. Among the topics covered: What’s behind the current market jitters? Is it the debt ceiling debate, concern about tighter central bank policy, soaring energy prices, supply chain worries, China Evergrande? Whatever the reason and whatever the resolutions to the above concerns, all roads appear to lead to easier than otherwise Fed policy, and Kilburg remains bullish. Two regional Fed presidents resigned earlier this week thanks to trading scandals, and as the podcast was being recorded, Chairman Jay Powell’s odds of serving another term took a dip when Senator Elizabeth Warren declared him a “dangerous man.”. A lot of this stuff is for show, reminds Kilburg, but it’s yet another reason Jay Powell will more or less continue to stand there with a sign saying “buy risk assets.” The velocity of the move higher in long-term rates has shaken some, notes Kilburg, but the absolute level of the 10-year yield of about 1.5% remains historically low. As long as the 10-year rate remains range-bound below about 2%, it should be good for tech stocks. Kilburg and team have been buying the dip in areas like cybersecurity and semiconductors. Though a fan of the reflation trade, and an owner of names like 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), and Masco (MAS), Kilburg did take profits on most energy holdings in mid-September. Links of interest: Senator Warren: Fed Chair Jay Powell a 'dangerous man' Debt ceiling and inflation in focus at Yellen's and Powell's Senate testimony Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Walking between the raindrops - Jeff Kilburg joins Alpha Trader

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with David Trainer, CEO of independent research firm New Constructs, and the author of Value Investing 2.0, a newsletter available on Seeking Alpha's Marketplace service. Among the topics covered: The Evergrande story out of China is naturally worth paying attention to, but it's particularly important during these times of stretched market valuations. The question at hand is whether the Chinese government will step in to ease liquidity concerns. This is likely to happen, but there's no guarantee. Trainer explains his proprietary concept of Earnings Distortion, a systematic alpha-generating calculation of a company's true (vs. reported) results. Among Trainer's favorite picks is Disney (DIS), which is weathering the challenge from Netflix (NFLX) very well. Trainer notes Disney generates massive cash flow from multiple channels, while Netflix is burning through billions. Another favorite is Walmart (WMT) - like Disney, generating billions in cash flow, and also like Disney, weathering the challenge from a sexier competitor (in this case Amazon). Links of interest: David Trainer's Value Investing 2.0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Calculating Earnings Distortion - David Trainer joins Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher discussing the latest macro topics. Technical difficulties kept our guest - RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas - from the recording, but we were able to speak with him offline and relay some of his thoughts. Among the topics: “Team transitory” got a win with Tuesday morning’s softer-than-expected inflation report, says Brusuelas, but - with the CPI continuing to run at north of 5% - it’s still to early to declare victory. Stocks initially rose on the slow inflation number, but finished the day with losses. Investors may have gotten complacent after what seems like months with no downturn lasting for more than a few hours, but September - so far - has been a return to reality, with the S&P down about 3% in the first couple of weeks of the month. Meanwhile in China, that country’s leadership reminded everyone that they can send a sector down sharply at any point. This week it was the casino sector that drew some comments from Beijing, sending some of those players down double digit percentages. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

'Team transitory' gets a win - Alpha Trader looks at the inflation numbers

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with George Ball, chairman of Sanders, Morris, Harris. Among the topics discussed: Stocks are expensive and the bull market is long in the tooth, but the Fed (or at least Chairman Jay Powell) is showing little interest in tightening policy. While fast growth and perky inflation would seemingly argue for the Fed to move, don’t discount that Powell would like to keep his job - tapering and/or higher rates wouldn’t be the best career move. What might upset this equation is the Fed having gotten it wrong on “transitory” inflation. Last week’s “soft” employment report was notable for a 0.6% rise in average hourly earnings - double what was expected. While one could argue that the taper is priced into stock prices, Ball says higher and stickier than expected wage-led inflation certainly isn’t. Nevertheless remaining bullish, Ball prefers “new tech” names that have far greater upside than the FAANG+ players. Among them are MercadoLibre (MELI) and Chegg (CHGG) - both stocks have had astounding gains over the past few years, but the best way to invest, says Ball, is to have the memory span of a goldfish. The market caps of each remain relatively small compared to the market opportunities they have. Bullish on cryptocurrencies, Ball recommends splitting an investment up three ways - one-third in bitcoin (BTC-USD), one-third in ether (ETH-USD), and one-third in Coinbase (COIN). If worried about the competitive threat that Coinbase may face as other exchanges raise funds in IPOs, Ball wouldn’t have issue buying a basket of these players instead of just Coinbase. Ball is also a fan of a recently gone-public small-cap biotech, Sera Prognostics (SERA). The company has a test which can determine if a woman is likely to give birth to a baby prematurely. By being able to identify and treat this condition early, the savings - both from a human and cost standpoint - would be enormous. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bullish on 'new tech' - George Ball joins Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features host Stephen Alpher talking with Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers (co-host Aaron Task is on vacation this week). Among the topics discussed: “​​Goldilocks is a 68-year-old man in a suit,” or how Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote address managed to please both equity and fixed-income investors. Ahead of the talk, a number of Fed speakers made clear they were in favor of beginning the taper sooner, rather than later. Powell pushed back against that hawkishness, while still suggesting that tapering isn’t too far off. With more gains in August, the S&P 500 (SP500) is now on a seven-month winning streak. Past history suggests markets will be nicely higher in six months, but Sosnick reminds that so much depends on the timing of the streak - this time around it’s occurring at what may be near the beginning of a Fed tightening cycle. Shorting the VIX at this point in the cycle may be like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, with upside (of the bet) of a couple of points, but the downside far greater - particularly as we head into what’s typically the seasonally volatile period of September/October. The potential of blockchain technology (decentralized ledger) may be as great as that of the Internet, but that doesn’t mean the price direction of bitcoin (BTC-USD) has to be a one-way street higher. Similar to Cisco - which had a huge run early in the era, but has underperformed for more than two decades despite its importance for Internet usage - bitcoin’s price could languish even as blockchain technology delivers society-changing products. Links of interest: ​​Goldilocks is a 68-year-old man in a suit Blockchain is to the Internet as Bitcoin is to ? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Powell pleases at Jackson Hole - Steve Sosnick joins Alpha Trader

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A bubble in bubble identification - Randy Frederick joins Alpha Trader podcast

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares, whose flagship fund is the $5B AUM KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). Among the topics covered: Why the fall of Afghanistan - no doubt a serious issue for the Middle East - doesn’t necessarily translate into China getting more aggressive with Taiwan There’s plenty being lost in translation with respect to the regulatory news coming out of China, says Ahern. Much of what we’re seeing - while clunkily handled by Beijing - is no different than much of the regulatory issues faced by the likes of Facebook and Amazon on a regular basis in the U.S. or EU. The result has been a large disconnect between fundamentals (still great) in Chinese Internet players like Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (TCEHY), JD.Com (JD), Meituan (MPNGF), and Pinduoduo (PDD), and the price action (not so great). Links of interest: Why Ray Dalio thinks worries about the China regulatory crackdown are overblown Why George Soros is highly worried about China KWEB’s top holdings Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A buying opportunity in China? KraneShares' (KWEB) Brendan Ahern joins Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher chatting with Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy. Among the topics covered: Barring worsening news on the Delta variant or some other unfortunate event, there’s little standing in the way of the market continuing to move higher, says Bauer. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t be buying protection, and - thanks to recent low volatility - that protection is relatively cheap at the moment. Recent strong economic growth and inflation prints suggest we’re maybe nearing the end of the zero rate regime sometime in the next year, but Bauer believes the market has discounted as much. More important is how to play stronger inflation, and Bauer - who has been long semiconductors (SMH) through their big run of the past few months - believes there’s plenty more upside to come. Markets don’t always have to make sense, reminds Bauer. U.S. bond yields until recently had been headed sharply lower, but at the same time the dollar was showing plenty of strength. Apparel stocks have been taking off of late, even amid stores about companies extending work-from-home, and chatter about at least some schools continuing with remote learning. And of the dollar (USDOLLAR), Bauer expects it to continue rising - not because its a “bastion of strength” - but because it’s being measured against other currencies like the euro and yen that have even larger flaws. Links of interest: Prosper Trading Academy Micron CFO discusses continuing supply chain shortages as semi stocks pull back Apparel stocks are taking off - why the sector looks appealing Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Markets to move higher, but don't forget downside protection - Scott Bauer joins Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. Among the topics covered: Appearing on Alpha Trader right in the middle of the March 2020 panic, Detrick cooly explained that the market had more than priced in an earnings disaster, making stocks a buy. Fast-forward 17 months, and we’re in the middle of what might be one of the best earnings seasons ever. So yes, things are a bit perky right now, but the major structural bull market remains intact, says Detrick, expecting stocks to continue to outperform bonds over the next 6-12 month timeframe The bond bears may have thrown in the towel, but Detrick sees yields creeping higher throughout the rest of the year alongside a still-growing economy and rising inflation expectations. He thinks 1.75% on the 10-year Treasury (vs. the current 1.18%) isn’t out of the question As to whether we’re entering a new 70s-style period of galloping inflation, Detrick isn’t so sure. He notes the continuation of many of the same factors that have held inflation in check - technology and the Amazonization of the economy, to name two - for the last decade. That doesn’t mean we won’t continue with some strong inflation prints for the next year or two as the economy continues to emerge from the 2020 recession Turning to favored areas, Detrick and team continue to modestly favor value vs. growth for the rest of 2021. And that leads to favoring cyclical sectors like financials, industrials, and materials. Links of interest: This earnings season is an upside record-breaker Detrick’s March 10, 2020 appearance on Alpha Trader Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why stocks will continue to outperform - Ryan Detrick joins Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Mark Dow, author of the Behavioral Macro Blog, and a former hedge fund manager. Among the topics covered: The China regulatory crackdown is clearly not good news for that country’s tech names, and suggests not great relations between Beijing and D.C., but it need not be a headwind for additional records for the S&P 500 While it’s entirely possible that we’ve already passed the peak growth phase of the current economic recovery, that doesn’t mean solid growth won’t continue for several more quarters or years. Along those same lines, Dow believes that inflation may have peaked as well A lot has been made about what the recent big drop in long-term Treasury yields might be saying, but Dow believes that price signals in the government bond market aren’t what they used to be. Find out why Dow’s explanation of the monetary policy transmission pipes. The Cliff’s Notes: It’s a closed system, i.e. the Fed’s “printing” of money ends doesn’t go into the economy, it stays in the Federal Reserve deposits of the banks. It’s for this reason that those predicting the next great inflation keep getting it wrong. Links of interest: Behavioral Macro blog The China regulatory crackdown in an fund - The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism - Mark Dow joins Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Blu Putnam, chief economist at CME Group. Among the topics covered: Making sense of the continued decline in long-term yields even as inflation surges Why we’ve probably already seen the peak in economic growth for this recovery cycle A defense of the Fed’s “transitory” inflation argument Alternative data sources like international travel numbers, sports attendance, and restaurant seating might give the first clue about how the Delta variant affects the growth outlook Why modern banking means the link between the money supply and inflation has been irrevocably broken, and ... Why 70s-style wage-push inflation isn’t an issue in today’s digital economy Links of interest: What does the bond market know as 10-year yield tumbles 10-year Treasury yield drops below 1.2% for first time since February Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The link between money supply and inflation breaks - Blu Putnam joins Alpha Trader

Alpha Trader taps into topics and trends offering in-depth analysis of the market from the perspective of a trader. Hosted by former Yahoo Finance editor in chief Aaron Task and Seeking Alpha Managing Editor of News, Stephen Alpher, the show will feature discussions of the latest news and regular guests from among the smartest traders in the market today.

hubhopper

Alpha Trader

hubhopper