The hosts of Behind the Idea - Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsman - are reuniting for a new podcast called A Positive Jam, that breaks down The Hold Steady's classic debut, Almost Killed Me. Check out our preview and watch for the release in August; subscribe wherever you get podcasts, including: Apple Podcasts Spotify Stitcher Podbean Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea

New Podcast Preview: A Positive Jam

We couldn't wait to get to our year-end review on Behind the Idea, so we're sharing it before your Thanksgiving week travel. It's our 100th episode, and the last episode of our Gone till November special series, a more introspective quartet of episodes. We also discuss on the podcast one other reason why we've released this early. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - The Alphies - categories 4:15 - Favorite guest 12:15 - Favorite story 27:00 - Most interesting idea 35:16 - Most surprising stock performance 41:15 - Least surprising stock performance 46:30 - Best performers 49:15 - Listener awards Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #100: The Alphies 2.0

Over the last two weeks, Mike and Daniel have pitched respective long ideas. This week, we looked backward at mistakes we've made in our investing careers. The theory goes that your investing mistakes also amount to your investing tuition, and that true wisdom is learning from others' mistakes, rather than your own. I can only hope there's something for you as listeners to learn from our mistakes, as broken down on today's podcast. The investments in question date to 2016 and 2017. Mike went long on Gilead Sciences (GILD) based on their scientific prowess and low multiple, and even as his thesis sailed on him with Gilead's acquisition of Kite Biopharma, he couldn't find the exit door. Daniel went long Uniti Group (UNIT), even having concerns about its failure to cover its dividend and what the huge yield portended, let alone the binary risk that was introduced into the stock. We hope there are lessons to be learned from our mistakes. Topics Covered 4:00 - Mike's bad choice - Gilead Sciences (GILD) 6:00 - What was compelling about GILD? 10:45 - At the time of purchase, did you have any concerns? 14:30 - How did the investment play out? 18:30 - When did you realize it wasn't working? 25:00 - What are the lessons learned? 28:00 - Daniel's bad choice - Uniti Group (UNIT) 29:30 - What was your thesis? 38:00 - Specific downside concerns 41:00 - When did you realize it wasn't going well? 55:30 - What lessons did you learn? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #99: Why I'm A Bad Investor

We continue our special November series. Mike shares his long thesis for Varian Medical Systems, an industry leader in oncology treatment devices that has a lot of attractive business aspects, though it's valuation is also challenging. Daniel tries to probe the thesis for any gaps, but the moat here seems quite strong. Topics Covered 5:00 minute mark - Introduction to Varian Medical Systems and the business case 12:40 - How much does it matter that there are two revenue lines in the income statement? Oncology vs. Proton and Product vs. Service 19:30 - Any reason to think they are transforming more to a service business?  24:30 - Market and customer relationship strategy... moat around business. 31:00 - Is a throughput based model something to be concerned about? 36:00 - Valuation 53:30 - The under the radar aspect of VAR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #98: Varian's Moat May Be Worth The Price

We kick off a special November series where we stop breaking down other people's ideas and try to dissect our own. Daniel shares his long idea on Stitch Fix, a fast-growing e-commerce clothing company that also will have to face a lot of competitors and skeptics as it tries to scale to profitability. Mike plays devil's advocate to interrogate the thesis. Topics Covered 3:30 minute mark - SFIX thesis 6:00 - What do you like about SFIX? 11:00 - Actual experience with Stitch Fix 20:00 - Business model 25:00 - Growth prospects of retail clothing market SFIX is operation in 31:00 - Where does SFIX fit in the market of fragmenting consumer preferences? 34:30 - How does SFIX handle inventory management? 37:00 - Is SFIX's customized really a big advantage over other retailers? 46:00 - How much choice do consumers really have? 52:00 - Valuation discussion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #97: Stitch Fix As A Growth Fit

There are three sorts of stories we've gravitated towards in the past 95 episodes of Behind the Idea: Value traps and/or value plays, the sorts of junk we might invest in. Examples: Cars.com (CARS), AT&T (T), Dell (DELL), Kelloggs (K) from the short side. Growth stories that break our value-oriented brains. Examples: Amazon (AMZN), Shopify (SHOP), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Lyft (LYFT), PagerDuty (PD) from the short side. Battleground stories or news stories. Examples: Boeing (BA), PG&E (PCG), Chipotle (CMG), Trupanion (TRUP). This week we cover Teladoc (TDOC), which falls squarely in categories 2 and 3. The company is a fast grower on the top line, but it's yet to crack break even profitability metrics. We've published many short ideas on the company on Seeking Alpha, but we recently published a PRO+ top idea by Value Alpha that takes the long side. As with many of these stories, there are both exciting things going on and questions raised that deserve a closer look. We break down the long case, and then we raise our questions. Beyond assessing the Teladoc story itself, we also get into what we look for in growth stories like this, and what it means to invest in an execution based story. Topics Covered 3:00 - Assessing the long case 8:15 - Market leadership and the total addressable market story 13:45 - Teladoc's revenue model and Value Alpha's valuation model. 19:00 - Pricing vs. valuation rears its head 22:00 - Teladoc's industry position and is it a real moat? 27:45 - Valuation arbitrage and the messiness in the story 31:00 - What about the short case? 36:30 - The significance of the 'execution-based' story 40:00 - The reliance on acquisitions and the trends in visit fees. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #96: Teladoc And The Modern Growth Story

On this week’s Behind the Idea, we jump right into the long case for a beloved dividend company and notorious corporate name, Altria, ticker symbol MO. We speak with Atlas Research about his bull case for Altria as a stock that will beat the S&P 500. There are the recent concerns around vaping, the break-up of the Philip Morris merger, and the ESG angles and squeamishness around owning a cigarette stock. Depending on your predilection, that’s either a recipe to stay away or the very reason to buy. Atlas is on the long side and makes the case as we grill him on this week’s Behind the Idea. Topics Covered2:45 minute mark – reviewing the past few years for MO and the bull case8:15 – The obvious value story, but is it…too obvious?11:45 – Looming liabilities for Juul?15:15 – Looking at the Phillip Morris merger18:15 – The ESG angle21:45 – Addiction driven models24:15 -The MSA’s legacy28:15 – What role does cannabis play for Altria?34:15 – The economics and regulatory outlook for vaping38:15 – Summing up the investment case40:45 – The classic sin stock story  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #95: Smoking Out The Altria Bull Case W/Atlas Research

Activists come with a reputation, and few have as big a reputation as Elliott Management. AT&T (T) also comes with a reputation. The two come to ahead with Elliott Management's recent letter advocating AT&T refocus on core businesses. The letter is very compelling on where AT&T went astray, and a little more predictable on what they should do next. But at a 10x forward PE, there's not much that needs to go right. So does Elliott's argument make sense? Are AT&T shares worth turning on? We discuss this week on Behind the Idea. Topics Covered 3:15 minute mark - Elliott Management's takedown of AT&T8:00 - Basic summary of Elliott's prescription9:15 - Key graphics/charts from the letter13:00 - The value/special situations investor funnybone16:45 - Underownership of AT&T - lack of confidence, also an opportunity?21:45 - Why the loss of DirecTV and Time Warner execs is so alarming26:45 - How much of this ground has been covered before?30:00 - Elliott's Activating AT&T plan 36:00 - Reactions to the road map46:00 - Final risks for investors to keep in mind Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #94: The Activating AT&T Signal

Ligand Pharmaceuticals has been both a strong performer over the past decade and a target of short sellers for some time. The stock has struggled over the last 18 months, though, and Seeking Alpha author 8 Diamonds Advisors feels that the stock has become a strong buy again. The thesis rests on the company's shots on goal approach and its more diversified model. We discuss whether this holds up and what that means for investors. Topics covered:  3:15 - Key elements of 8 Diamonds Advisor's thesis and understanding the company's products 6:15 - "Shots on goal" - what does that mean and how does it work? 15:45 - The challenges in analyzing the business model 19:45 - Management's place in the thesis 24:15 - What's gone on the past few years? 26:45 - The short theses over the year 35:45 - The Promacta divestment and a share buyback (?!) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #93: Ligand's Shots On Goal Target

Not that price is truth, but the price chart for Range Resources over the past five years is really ugly. But the company has long been a favorite of Seeking Alpha authors. We try to pick apart this bearish market consensus vs. bullish author sentiment with an idea from KCI Research Ltd. on the company and why its valuation is too cheap to ignore.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #92: Finding The Range For Range Resources

Tim Heitman of Investing 501 joins us to discuss his Hill International thesis. He likes the stock as a turnaround story and on growing gross profits, as well as some accounting quirks that may be hiding the opportunity from the market.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #91: Hill International With Tim Heitman (Bonus Episode)

This trailer previews our initial two shows on our newest podcast channel, The Investing Edge, from Value Investor's Edge Live hosted by J Mintzmyer, and The Razor's Edge, hosted by Daniel Shvartsman and Akram's Razor. Our excerpt for Value Investor's Edge Live is from our first episode, where J Mintzmyer speaks with Robert Bugbee of Scorpio Tankers about the company's comfortable cash position and the pending catalyst of IMO 2020. Our excerpt from The Razor's Edge is from the first episode, which covers Disney, Netlfix, and the streaming universe. Daniel Shvartsman asks Akram's Razor about whether Netflix can solve a budding challenge - too much content on the service. The Investing Edge is a podcast channel on Seeking Alpha that features shows from different Seeking Alpha authors, with a focus on their unique investing style. Authors will speak with CEOs and industry experts, break down key market stories and topics, and share insights on how they research new investments. The first two shows on The Investing Edge are: Value Investor's Edge Live, hosted by J Mintzmyer of Value Investor's Edge. The show will feature J's conversations with publicly traded shipping company CEOs, sector experts, and fellow deep value investors about their companies and investing approaches. The Razor's Edge, hosted by SA podcast host Daniel Shvartsman and Seeking Alpha author Akram's Razor of The Razor's Edge.     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Investing Edge Trailer: Talking Scorpio Tankers' Opportunity And Netflix's Big Challenge

Safety in Value, a Seeking Alpha Marketplace author, joins us to discuss his Bluegreen Vacations thesis. He likes the stock as it trades below its previous deal price, and likes the underlying business as well. We discuss those elements, the risks to parent company BBX Capital's bid, and, because we couldn't resist, how this fits into Joel Greenblatt's investing philosophy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #90: Bluegreen's Attractive Location

Through three episodes to this point on Joel Greenblatt's You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, Mike and I have discussed what we like about his famous special situation investing strategies, and what doesn't work. We've also shared our enthusiasm for the light touch he applies to his writing, and the way he doesn't appear to take himself too seriously. Chapters 7 and 8 bring that feeling home. Chapter 7 because it shares how Greenblatt advises his readers to do the actual research, and one component is to borrow ideas from other investors. It's an obvious concept when you think about it, but it also suggests a touch of humility that plays out throughout the book. We look at Greenblatt's sources and favorite books to understand the rest of the book better. Then, Chapter 8 is the shortest chapter, and it underlines Greenblatt's entire philosophy as I understand it. Basically, investing and growing your money can give you time and options later on. When active vs. passive remains a hotly contested topic, and when nobody is satisfied with even a 10+ year bull market, it's worth remembering that you should invest if you enjoy it, and the goal is to buy you time to do the things you want to do with the people you want to do them with, and nothing more or less. We discuss the philosophy and the minutiae on our concluding episode about Greenblatt's book. Topics Covered 3:40 minute mark - The highlights of Chapter 7 8:40 - Coattail riding in today's market 18:40 - Thoughts about sources listed in the book and their relevance 22 years later. 21:00 - Reviewing Greenblatt's favorite books 27:00 - The philosophy: money is time. Do we buy? 35:30 - Final dad jokes and notes from the book. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea #89: You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, Pt. 4

Investors looking for value stock investing opportunities with catalysts ahead will be interested in Jorge Robles' perspective on UK low-cost gym operator Gym Group. The company has a reasonable competitive position, a misunderstood path to profitability, and an attractive free cash flow yield. Mike and Jorge explore the catalysts to realize the stock's value, competition within the industry, the impact of private equity ownership on companies, and the role Brexit might play in weightlifter behavior.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind The Idea # 88: Signing Up For The Gym Group With Jorge Robles (Bonus Episode)

On Behind The Idea, Seeking Alpha editors Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsman take a closer look at an investment idea published on Seeking Alpha to see what makes for compelling investing analysis. We look at what’s happening with the underlying company, what the author’s case is, how well s/he made that case, and what we can learn from this investment story. We also bring on the authors, top investors, and industry analysts or experts to explore the case further. We hope the breakdowns and discussions are is both timely and evergreen, educational and entertaining for investors.

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Behind The Idea

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