As tensions continue to rage between Russia and the West over its build-up on the Ukrainian border, Departures turns to expert Mark Galeotti for his analysis on the situation and a discussion of his brand new book, "The Weaponisation of Everything: A Field Guide to the New Way of War." Galeotti, who has spent years researching and writing about Russian organized crime and the security state, argues that despite the buildup of a traditional military conflict potentially in Ukraine, overall the world is seeing the practice of warfare change.  Shooting wars are much too costly, from both an economic and social aspect, and hybrid warfare, disinformation, hacking, assassinations, sanctions, cultural exchanges, and even business and financial press provide a whole new series of battlefronts where rivals may clash. Galeotti and Amsterdam talk about the limits of sanctions, and why in many cases they don't work against larger nations like Russia. Although politically palatable, making the appearance of action at little cost to the policymaker, it sidesteps issues which are much more important.

Departures with Robert Amsterdam

So little time, so many kinds of wars to wage

Throughout the most recent intensifying conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine, there is a common assumption that the Russian leadership is wielding its "energy weapon" to break apart European unity and advance its interests. While that may be partly true, it would be a huge mistake to assume that such a vast industrial chain of inputs, labor, refining, and transportation of these goods lay in the hands of so few people, argues Prof. Margarita Balmaceda in her new book, "Russian Energy Chains: The Remaking of Technopolitics From Siberia to Ukraine to the European Union." In her conversation with Robert Amsterdam, Dr. Balmaceda of Seton Hall University argues that for many, the flow of Russian energy exports of oil, gas, and coal often represent opportunities which are happily exploited more than constraints and threats as energy weapons. The rise of numerous Ukrainian oligarchs who took advantage of energy transit were able to transfer this to political influence, forever shaping regional dynamics that we can see playing out today, among numerous other examples. Oil and gas certainly are the lifeblood of Russian politics - but it is not a force under the sole discretion of Vladimir Putin.

Oil, gas, and coal as the lifeblood of the Russian polity

Several years ago, Hakan Bulgurlu was at the top of his game. He was serving as CEO of Arçelik, a multi-billion dollar corporation. He and his family, including three young children, were enjoying a great life with frequent international travel. But he was also deeply troubled by the raw data he was seeing professionally concerning the rapidly deteriorating climate situation. And when he would speak up about these concerns, he found that people wouldn't listen and wouldn't act. So, he made a momentous decision to prepare himself to summit Mount Everest and bring attention to the cause. In his new book, "A Mountain to Climb: The Climate Crisis: A Summit Beyond Everest," Bulgurlu takes us deep inside the harrowing details of his trip to Everest in 2019, which turned out to be one of the most deadly years in terms of climber fatalities.  Interspersed with the tale of the expedition, Bulgurlu's book explores the roots of the environmental crisis we find ourselves in, including interviews and commentary from climate activists and campaigners, biologists, scientists, filmmakers, academics, economists, entrepreneurs, global leaders and innovators. In this gripping account of his journey, Bulgurlu describes the challenges he faced in reaching the summit, and the challenges we all face in protecting the planet and the future of humanity. 

Summiting Everest for climate change

Forget tanks, missiles, and soldiers. The forms of warfare predominantly being used against the United States today are much more often unconventional and irregular, such as large-scale offensive cyber actions, disinformation campaigns, spying, economic subversion, and smaller armed conflicts via proxies.  This is a deeply worrying trend, argues Seth Jones, author of the terrific book "Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran and the Rise of Irregular Warfare," because the United States is very poorly prepared to defend itself and is instead still stuck in the old world and over-invested in the means of traditional military conflict. In this conversation with Robert Amsterdam, Jones discusses the main findings of his book, exploring various similarities from China to Russia to Iran in terms of how irregular warfare is used and deployed in support of their interests on a daily basis, and how response and countermeasures from Washington have been uninspiring. Jones and Amsterdam also discuss the problematic disregard the United States has shown toward its allies in recent years and the waning influence of its soft power. Jones argues that there has been a corresponding impact on the challenges of forging successful partnerships to withstand the onslaught of irregular warfare tactics, and the many areas in which the US should look to improve to address these security gaps.

Irregular warfare is becoming the new regular

The saber-rattling from Moscow over Ukraine has grown deafening in recent weeks. Hours before we recorded this episode, Vladimir Putin appeared on television threatening "retaliatory military-technical" measures while amassing some 175,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, asserting that Russia "has every right" to invade and start a war. Evelyn Farkas, a former Obama administration defense official, summarized the West's response in a tweet "Putin just declared war on Ukraine (pretending it's war against the US and its allies, provoked by us)." To get some meaningful insight, we turn to our man in Kyiv, Ilya Ponomarev. Ilya Ponomarev is a former member of the Russian Duma who most famously was the only member to vote against the annexation of Crimea - an act for which he was effectively expelled from the country.  In this conversation with Robert Amsterdam, Ponomarev shares his views about the potential scenarios of a second Russian invasion, why he sees the human and military costs as forbiddingly too high, but how nevertheless we are living through an attempt by Putin to cement a legacy and upend the post-Cold War world order.

From the frontlines of Ukraine

In early December, the administration of US President Joe Biden convened a mostly virtual democracy summit, in which some of the world's largest economies were invited to participate and provide a clear framing of the agenda - and a clear poke in the eye of China and Russia. In response, Chinese state media trolled Biden with Harry Potter jokes about the fallibility of democracy as a system, and then went back to their regular efforts to redefine international norms and present its top-down authoritarian system as not just legitimate but ideologically superior to liberal multiparty democracies. This week we're very excited to have Toronto Star reporter Joanna Chiu join the podcast to discuss her book, "China Unbound: A New World Disorder," which presents eight different case studies of recent tensions and conflicts Western countries have had with China's rise which help illustrate this fundamental question of how Beijing is reacting to a series of challenges. Chiu's book examines Canada's infamously naive experience with China and the arrest of the "two Michaels," but also looks at the encroachment on Hong Kong, the persecution of underground churches, Australia's economic dependence, and the vast expansion of China's surveillance police state. Taken altogether, we can see China's drive toward authoritarianism as being shaped from the distrust of past colonial experiences, but the new world order they are creating - with little effective resistance - leaves many questions open.

The rise of the Beijing consensus

Faced with challenging and intractable problems from climate change to civil conflicts to terrorism, it is tempting for many of us to look to the heavens, with billionaires pouring their resources into space exploration, expansion, and even dreams of colonization.  But this is a major mistake, argues Professor Daniel Deudney of Johns Hopkins University in his fascinating new book, "'Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity." Deudney's perspective is that the "space age" race toward developing these technologies has mainly resulted in multiplying risks for the survival of humanity itself, from hypersonic missiles being seen as space weapons, to competition for control and influence far beyond our atmosphere. "Space is an inherently violent environment," Deudney argues in his conversation with Robert Amsterdam. We are occupying a miraculous oasis of life, an enormously unique and special place, surrounded by trillions of miles of desolate and inhospitable vacuum. In terms of the complex geopolitical questions, our society is very ill-prepared for the conflicts that will be associated with space activity. The counterintuitive argument of Deudney's book? Forget about space, and get our ship in order here on earth first.

We aren't ready for the weaponization of space

Yoweri Museveni's 35 years of iron-gripped ruthless authoritarianism in Uganda did not take place in a vacuum. It has instead been a years-long process of converting the country's institutions into instruments of arbitrary power, which has been fueled by a series of targeted moves to destabilize the social coordination that would be needed to hold leadership accountable. This has been the fascinating focus of research for Prof. Rebecca Tapscott, a visiting fellow at the University of Edinburgh's Politics and International Relations Department. She joined the Departures with Robert Amsterdam podcast this week to discuss her book, "Arbitrary States: Social Control and Modern Authoritarianism in Museveni's Uganda." Tapscott explains that for Uganda, among other countries with nationalist movements which took power, it is crucial that there is a high level of "unpredictability and arbitrariness" which shapes people's experience of how the state works, how they experience security and justice. Her research takes an interesting look into the functioning of hybrid regimes, where some vestigial presence of democratic institutions continue to exist but are largely rendered ineffective in terms of successful opposition organizing.

What Uganda shows us about modern authoritarianism

It was once the dream of starry-eyed proponents of globalization that the increasing pace of trade, travel, and exchanges of ideas would lead to a "borderless" world of reduced conflict and cosmopolitanism. Instead, the opposite has happened, as the lines and demarcations between nations struggling to manage their conflicts have become paramount and subject to escalating risk. Whether it's China building islands in the South China Sea or Russia seizing the arctic or even the UK having a Northern Ireland problem after Brexit, borders are increasingly becoming more hostile environments. Professor Klaus Dodds explores the issue with tremendous clarity in his fascinating new book, "Border Wars: The Conflicts that Will Define Our Future." Joining Robert Amsterdam on this episode of Departures, Prof. Dodds argues that even though we have international legal frameworks such as the Law of the Sea, it has already been demonstrated that some countries pick and choose legal principles as lawfare (such as building islands), we don't always choose to penalize violations, while there is a constant reshaping and reinterpretation of borders making it much more difficult to separate and demarcate sovereign territories with clarity. Dodds' book provides a fascinating look into the future, where climate change, pandemics, and digital surveillance are all contributing to changes in our physical world that are certain to be the source of challenging conflicts in the years to come.

Preparing for the geopolitical conflicts of tomorrow

As world leaders gather in Scotland for the COP26 climate change summit this week, there's a tremendous level of scrutiny not over the ambitions but the shortcomings of the world's biggest sources of emissions. This week, Departures is pleased to invite David Claydon, the founder of Kaya Group, which is an advisory firm which helps companies, investors, and governments navigate climate change policy and the decarbonization process. Claydon, who will be among the delegates in Glasgow, is clear-eyed about the stiff challenges facing the major players. Xi Jinping will not be attending, so little progress can be expected from China. Russia shows only a passing interest and little ability to transition away from its fossil fuel economy, while India is not expected to deliver much in the way of promises. US President Joe Biden, meanwhile, arrives with a dearth of trust and credibility, with his reconciliation budget package held up by the Republicans and members of his own party. Claydon points out that the pandemic has made COP26 all the more challenging. "There was a lot of hope that the COVID vaccine distribution question would be a great test of solidarity between developed countries and developing countries," says Claydon. "But if it was a test, Western countries have failed it. The lack of distribution of vaccine has been another factor undermining trust between countries." But we "shouldn't be too pessimistic," Claydon argues.  The US may not have the credibility to go to COP26 and issue demands, but that's not what COP26 is all about, it's all about each nation declaring what they intend to achieve and then keeping to that. And President Joe Biden, Claydon says, should be able to muster "just enough" credibility to follow through with the decarbonization goals set out this past Earth Day.

Trust, Credibility, and COP26

Many of us have wondered what it would be like to be a real spy. Not necessarily the James Bond-esque car chases and shootouts, but the real practice of exercising tradecraft in the field, recruiting and handling assets, and maintaining such a complex web of relationships between your colleagues, family, and sources. There could possibly be no better book to take us deep into this world than the latest release by Douglas London, titled "The Recruiter: Spying and the Lost Art of American Intelligence." London, who was a 34-year veteran of the CIA, shares highly personal and courageous details in this memoir, which makes for such a fascinating read. London takes us from his earlier Cold War days up through 9/11 and the dawn of the war on terror, which saw an unfortunate shift within the intelligence community toward more militaristic covert action and paramilitary operations that undermined traditional espionage. And with this shift, also came a decreasing level of accountability for who is responsible when things go wrong, something London wrestles with clear moral clarity and no excuses for the mismanagement he witnessed. Along with this memoir comes a series of clear-eyed recommendations that should be taken very seriously to reform and recover the reputation of the clandestine service.

One spy's burden of accountability

We are no longer living in a unipolar world of US dominance, argues India's brilliant former Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon in the latest episode of Departures with Robert Amsterdam, but neither have we transitioned to multipolarity or whatever is coming next. Former Ambassador Menon's new book, "India and Asian Geopolitics: The Past, Present," is slightly misleading in its title, in that it implies a regional study, when in fact his insights, analysis, and proscriptions are truly global in their validity. In this discussion with Robert Amsterdam, Menon addresses the sweeping changes which have undergone Asia in the past few decades, including the rebalancing between India and China, and makes a strong argument for the enhancement and expansion of Mumbai's integration and engagement with the international system. Menon expresses his concern over the spread of rising nationalism and nativism in many countries, which he argues often restricts their ability to negotiate and successfully engage with other nations to make progress on the world's most pressing issues. A truly fascinating discussion with one of the world's most experienced diplomats.

That feeling when we are between world orders

History is not a single continuum. There are certain stretches in which momentous change occurs in a very compact timeframe. The forty-year period between 1490 and 1530 is one of these bursts of revolutionary change. In The Verge: Reformation, Renaissance, and Forty Years that Shook the World, Patrick Wyman, a historian and the host of the popular podcast Tides of History, argues that the turn of the 16th century was a momentous moment in history when Europe began to break off from the rest of the world and “became recognizably the global power,” ushering in the era of imperialism and colonialism – “the central problem of world history in the last 500 years.” Rather than studying the centuries-long process that brought us into the modern era, Wyman looks at a particularly eventful period which began this “Great Divergence.” Europe at the turn of the 16th century featured the invention of the printing press, great sea voyages, the rise of modern finance, extreme taxation, among other revolutionary developments. Of these, Wyman argues, the printing press – which allowed for the creation of mass media – is the single most important of these developments. Indeed, Colombus’ voyages were “a media event as much as they were a historical event. The two aren’t really separable.” The period of 1490-1530 is especially notable for what Wyman describes as the “scaling effect.” While in the 21st century it seems almost obvious that a revolutionary invention would lead to rapid and massive scaling up. But at the turn of the 16th century, the rapidity of the scaling effect of everything from mass media to sea voyages “scaled in a way that would have been extremely foreign at this time.” The Verge also tells its story through individuals which Wyman links with a broader theme. Famous figures such as Christopher Colombus and Martin Luther feature, as do lesser-known individuals such as the banker Jakob Fugger and printer Aldus Manutius. Wyman delves into an extraordinarily important period of European history that shaped our globalized present from multiple angles and refreshing nuance.

Punctuated equilibrium: how the 1490-1530 period changed the world

Since Britain's annexation of Lagos in 1861 up until independence in 1960, the history of colonialism in Nigeria has almost always been told from London's perspective - often exaggerating the benevolent intentions and downplaying and blameshifting the abuses, ethnic violence, and social disarray the occupation created. Every listener to this podcast knows that we love Nigeria. Been traveling there and working there for decades, so when we heard about Max Siollun's new book, "What Britain Did to Nigeria: A Short History of Conquest and Rule," we had to get him on the podcast. In his discussion with Robert Amsterdam, Siollun emphasizes just how cynically the British colonial administrators exploited ethnic and religious identity to maintain control of territories, while forcefully rejecting the myth the Nigeria's problems are purely homegrown. Instead of solely focusing on Nigeria's modern problems of corruption, crime, and terrorism, instead it can be argued that the country, which is by far the most unique nation on earth, like a combination of Iran and Norway in the same territory, is a remarkable success story given the sheer impossible circumstances the colonizers created. Nigerians should be given credit for what they've achieved as a nation, despite the indelible and tragic legacy left behind by colonial rule.

Despite British colonialism, Nigeria is a success story

Looking back almost 60 years ago when the United States and the Soviet Union came within an inch of destroying the world via all-out nuclear war, we continue to gain new insights into the dramatic events, the changing of thinking and decision-making that went on in both ExComm and the Presidium. This week we're proud to be joined Serhii Plokhy, a professor of history at Harvard University and the author of the excellent book, "Nuclear Folly: A History of the Cuban Missile Crisis." Plokhy's book provides an international perspective on the crisis, featuring unprecedented access to Soviet archives and documentary materials showing how Nikita Khrushchev navigated the incredibly tense diplomatic showdown as well as the struggle for influence going on within the Presidium. Plokhy's findings reveal that CIA intelligence could have catastrophically misjudged Russia's ability to fight in Cuba and launch warheads, including how they appeared to miss the presence of nine short-range Luna missiles with nuclear warheads, each one only slightly less powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The CIA also greatly underestimated the number of Soviet troops on the island — the actual figure was 40,000, not 4,000. If the United States attacked Cuba, the Soviets were fully prepared to defend it with conventional and nuclear munitions.  In his discussion with Robert Amsterdam, Dr. Plokhy explores the numerous ways in which, with hindsight, the missile crisis was a political and diplomatic victory for the Soviet Union, considering the circumstances, while also giving us insight into just how close the two countries came to war.

Did Russia win the Cuban Missile Crisis?

International lawyer Robert Amsterdam and other members from the Amsterdam & Partners LLP team host a wide range of special expert guests to discuss leading international political and business issues.

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Departures with Robert Amsterdam

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