We’re nearing the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the start of the war in Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have seized control of the country, and the US-backed government has collapsed. Meanwhile, Turkey, Russia, China, and other powers remaining in the region are openly jostling for influence in the vacuum left by US forces. Katherine Zimmerman, a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, has followed US counterterrorism issues and the war in Afghanistan closely. On this episode of Overwatch, she discusses the state of US counterterrorism efforts and American involvement in Afghanistan.

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E56: 20 Years after 9/11: US Counterterrorism has Seen Successes, but Major Groups Remain Undefeated

Russian leaders have a very specific vision for the future of warfare, one that US leaders need to understand if they are to effectively counter Russian strategy and technology. This is the second episode in our series examining the Russian understanding of hybrid war. In our first episode on this topic, we discussed the ways in which Russia’s definition of this term differs from the West and why those differences need to be understood by US leaders and policymakers. On this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark, ISW’s Russia team lead, talks about the places and ways in which Russia’s concept of hybrid war is affecting reality.

E55: New Technology, Deadlier Weapons, and Disinformation Campaigns: How Russia Sees the Future of Warfare

Russian leaders and policymakers use the term “hybrid war” to refer to a very specific type of conflict, while their counterparts in the West tend to use that same term in a general sense to refer to different kinds of conflict that include a mix of conventional and asymmetrical means. US leaders cannot allow this semantic difference to go unexamined because those same Russian leaders believe they are on the defensive side of a hybrid war perpetrated by the West against Russia. Failing to appreciate the nuances of the Russian interpretation of hybrid war is therefore akin to ignoring a potential adversary’s rules of engagement and could easily lead to policy missteps and unintended consequences. Mason Clark leads ISW’s Russia Team and has been closely studying the Russian definition of hybrid war. He joins this episode of Overwatch to talk about the importance of this term’s definition in US-Russia relations.

E54: The Russian Concept of Hybrid War and Why it Matters for US Policy

The struggle to succeed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is growing intense. Its outcome will have significant consequences for Iran, the Middle East, and the US. Khamenei’s health has been failing for years, and his retirement or passing seems increasingly imminent. Current indicators suggest that his successor will be more hardline and less willing or able to rein in the aggressive instincts of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, and Nicholas Carl, the Iran Team Lead at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discuss the leading candidates to succeed Khamenei, their policy views on engaging with the United States and the West, and how the process of picking the next Supreme Leader could affect US policy on Iran.

E53: What Happens When Iran’s Supreme Leader Dies?

ISIS has carried out more acts of violence in the Al Hawl displacement camp in the first quarter of 2021 than in all of 2020. The militant group exploits camp members for propaganda and recruitment, fueling its activities elsewhere in northeast Syria. The US-partnered Syrian Democratic Forces has launched an operation to quell and contain ISIS activity in the camp, but the operation’s long-term prospects for success are grim without consistent international support. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Evans Hanson Fellow Eva Kahan discusses the ongoing operation and what it means for ISIS in the region.

E52: ISIS Activity Surges in Major Syrian Displacement Camp

Civil war and an unrestrained al Qaeda are all but certain should the US withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in May per the US-Taliban deal signed over a year ago. American disengagement will only embolden revisionist powers and create an even more dangerous security situation for the region and beyond. On this episode of Overwatch, Frederick W. Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, and General David H. Petraeus sit down to discuss the US-Taliban agreement, the consequences of a US withdrawal, and a sustainable way forward that protects not only American interests, but also advances those of the Afghan people.

E51: The Dangers of Disengagement: Gen. David H. Petraeus on Withdrawing US Troops from Afghanistan

The results of the Iranian presidential election in June 2021 will determine whether Iran shifts toward greater cooperation or increasing conflict with the United States. This uncertainty comes as the Biden administration is trying to reboot diplomacy with Iran using an ambitious agenda that goes beyond nuclear nonproliferation to include thorny issues such as the Iranian ballistic missile program and Iran's activities in the Middle East. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, is joined by Frederick Kagan, Director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute, and Nicholas Carl, the Iran Team Lead at CTP, to discuss nuances in Iran's upcoming presidential cycle that will have a significant impact on what the Biden administration can expect to achieve diplomatically with Iran.

E50: What Does Iran's Presidential Election Mean for Biden's Policy?

Vladimir Putin enjoyed a successful 2020 despite a slate of setbacks to his agenda. New constitutional amendments will allow him to rule the Russian state for life. Putin manipulated the crisis in Belarus to gain leverage over that country and successfully expanded Russian military ties to several other states in the former Soviet Union. He exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to fuel disinformation campaigns against the United States and undermine sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. These successes came amid milder setbacks for Putin’s ambitions in the Balkans and Ukraine. The collapse in oil and gas prices ravaged the fuel-driven Russian economy but failed to derail Putin’s campaigns. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and George Barros discuss Putin and the Kremlin’s biggest successes and setbacks in 2020.

E49: Russia’s Putin Exploits War, Crisis, and Disease to Expand his Power in 2020

Tensions between the United States and Iran are high as a transition in administrations has happened in Washington, DC. President Joe Biden and his top national security advisers want to get back into the nuclear deal with Iran and make it stronger if Iran is willing to get back into compliance with the terms of the deal. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, and Frederick Kagan, Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discuss what we can expect in the looming delicate diplomatic dance between the United States and Iran.

E48: What Will Biden Do on Iran?

A civil war between Ethiopia’s central government and one of its regional states threatens security across East Africa. Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country and a US security partner; the humanitarian and security consequences of this domestic conflict have already begun to affect the surrounding region. The fighting has pushed refugees into Sudan, drawn in fighters from Eritrea, and created fertile ground for militant groups like Al-Shabaab to recruit and expand. On this episode of Overwatch, Jessica Kocan, an analyst from the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses the Ethiopian conflict and the dangers it poses to US national security interests and the surrounding region. 

E47: Violent Crisis in Ethiopia Threatens East African Regional Stability

The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the global order and reshaping the balance of power on the world stage. The lessons that nations and their militaries take from this crisis will shape their capacity to adapt to COVID-19 and enhance their resilience to future crises. Elsa Kania, ISW’s Non-Resident Fellow in Indo-Pacific Security, recently published a detailed report examining China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chinese state and military’s coordinated nationwide response to the COVID-19 pandemic tested their national defense mobilization and civil-military fusion strategies. These are the capabilities China would use to move from peacetime to wartime in response to potential future crises and conflicts, including with the United States and its allies. Elsa discusses her assessment of these newly revealed capabilities and more on this episode of Overwatch.

E46: A People’s War: COVID-19 Response Reveals China’s Military Mobilization Strategy

The United States holds enormous power and responsibility in the world. With the US presidential transition underway, ISW President Kim Kagan sat down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (US Army, ret.) to discuss the many challenges facing the United States, including the pernicious effect of Chinese military diplomacy and the threat from Iran. McMaster argues that US troop deployments, and other forms of engagement abroad, "are immensely important to sustaining our security and prosperity" and that the US must savvily modernize its armed forces. McMaster outlines his view of the strategic successes and failures of the Obama and Trump administrations and his recommendations for President-elect Biden and his team. H.R. McMaster served as national security advisor from 2017 to 2018 and is the author of the recently published book Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World.

E45: H.R. McMaster on American Strategy during a Presidential Transition

The recent local elections in Ukraine were an important political battleground in Putin’s contest to restore Kremlin-friendly rule and annex territory in that country, the objective behind his 2014 invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin’s costly military operations failed to achieve their desired political outcome, resulting instead in a protracted war between Ukrainian armed forces and Russian proxies occupying eastern Ukraine and sophisticated political and information warfare aimed at shaping Kyiv’s government. The Kremlin recently sought to manipulate local elections in Ukraine to legitimize Russian proxies in Donbas, the territory they occupy in eastern Ukraine, and include its electorate within Ukraine itself. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team member George Barros discusses the outcome of Ukraine’s recent elections; the Kremlin’s techniques to attempt to influence Ukrainian elections; and the integration of military, political, and information operations in Russia’s hybrid war against its neighbor.

E44: Kremlin Intensifies War in Donbas to Undermine Ukrainian Government in Elections

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a longstanding objective to integrate Belarus into Russian-controlled structures. The Kremlin is undermining the Belarusian president's attempts to calm protests while simultaneously using the protest movement to justify Russian involvement in Belarusian affairs. This interference may enable Putin to deploy more Russian forces on NATO's eastern flank and advance Putin’s campaign to reassert Russian control over former Soviet states. On this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark and George Barros discuss the trajectory of the crisis and what the Kremlin seeks to gain from it.

E43: Kremlin Exploits Crisis to Secure Greater Russian Control of Belarus

The US is routinely confronted with crises that worsen and expand in scope over time. Modern technology and global interconnectedness have made these self-reinforcing crises increasingly common and intractable. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle discusses this phenomenon and the danger it presents to US national security. 

E42: Vicious Cycles in the Middle East and Africa Continue to Threaten US National Security Despite Efforts to Withdraw

Overwatch, an Institute for the Study of War podcast, goes beyond the news headlines to give listeners analysis and commentary on issues related to U.S. national security and American foreign policy. The episodes feature discussions with experts and practitioners to explore what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the U.S.

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