Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.2:21 PM (0 minutes ago)to me, EllenCrazy’ Bets on $200 Oil Invade the Options Markethttps://www.wsj.com/articles/crazy-bets-on-200-oil-invade-the-options-market-11634463002- Will WTI go over $100 per barrel- Options don't mean that traders actually think that oil will go to that high but the best indicate directional movesEnergy Crisis Prompts Asia to Turn to USA for Oilhttps://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/energy_crisis_prompts_asia_to_turn_to_usa_for_oil-18-oct-2021-166745-article- Asian buyers are buying more US sour crude cargoes for delivery in November and December- Mostly because WTI is trading at a $3 discount to BrentWill $80 Oil Open Shale's Spigots?https://www.energyintel.com/0000017c-85a2-d141-a17c-a5fad5170000- What if US rig count suddenly increases? Will that change OPEC's calculus?- If Permian increases, U.S. natural gas production will increase too.Coast guard: California oil pipeline may have been dragged by cargo shiphttps://news.yahoo.com/coast-guard-california-oil-pipeline-191111477.html- Is there anything that can't be blamed on container ships and the global supply chain?https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/576600-how-utilities-could-offset-the-coming-winters-record-high-energy?rl=1Dr. Dean Foreman from API Energy- highest gasoline prices since 2014!- highest natural gas prices since 2008!- domestic markets are relatively well supplied but Europe and Asian markets are short- D-E-I indicator: tracks roughly with the year on year change in industrial production. Still positive, signalling that the broader economy in US should continue to grow though there were some manufacturing indicators in U.S. that indicate industry beginning to slow.- Will energy prices start to weigh on economic growth? Not seeing this in the D-E-I indicator but there are some concerns over this, especially with Fed policy.- Oil prices have risen but there's no shortage. With gas, there is a shortage in Europe and Asia. Spot cargoes going for many times the average.- Some drilling response in U.S. Adding 7-10 rigs/week. Drilling picking up in lag. Is that enough to meet EIA predictions? According to EIA, US needs to add 1.8 million bpd to hit $60-$70 per barrel. - Cost escalation in oil industry is significant. That is going to make break-even prices increase a lot. Supply chain issues, tariffs on steel and other materials, labor shortages.- Hard to catch up to lack of investment. In Q2 only saw about $37 billion in investment. Compare to $68 billion at same point in 2019. Only half of what we saw during Great Recession adjusted for inflation. Capital projects down $110 billion year on year.- If you pile on policy from Biden admin saying that they want half of all US electricity to come from solar by 2030 how do you get funding for a multibillion dollar natural gas drilling project in Pennsylvania approved?- Highest for the month of September of NGL production! Economic decision to take NGLs out of natural gas. - Illinois has the second lowest stores on record as of last EIA report. - US has pretty much maximized output of LNG for the terminals we have. - 20.6 million bpd of petroleum demand in US - record high for September.- Refined products exports lowest since May 2020: why? Some issues due to Hurricane Ida but also US trending to become net petroleum importer as opposed to exporter. Broader trend over last 6-7 months is that US is back to net importer.

Energy Week

175 - Oil to $200? | Energy Crisis Prompts Asia to Turn to USA for Oil | Dr. Dean Foreman with API

Oil Price Jumps Above $80 and Natural Gas Races Higher, Turbocharged by Supply Shortageshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-jumps-above-80-and-natural-gas-races-higher-turbocharged-by-supply-shortages-11633943832- all of the oil companies are saying they aren't going to drill, prices go up, they can also make a killing trading.Why Energy Stocks Could Get Hurt by Rising Priceshttps://www.barrons.com/articles/energy-oil-natural-gas-prices-51633742601- argument that energy prices too high could hurt the economy by derailing economic growth- this in turn could derail energy companies themselvesIndia is on the brink of an energy crisis, as coal reserves hit critical lowshttps://fortune.com/2021/10/08/india-is-on-the-brink-of-an-energy-crisis-as-coal-reserves-hit-critical-lows/- Central Electric Authority says they have 3 or fewer days of coal supplyIndia says it has ample coal stocks for power sectorhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-says-it-has-ample-coal-stocks-power-sector-2021-10-10/- Coal Authority says there is ample coal - meaning 4 days supplyA Scary Energy Winter Is Coming. Don’t Blame the Greens.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/05/opinion/energy-climate-iran-nuclear.html- at the very least the EU carbon credit policy is pushing up energy prices in Europe and exacerbating the situation.- But so is the idea that need to stop investing in fossil fuel development.Vessel's Odyssey Reflects Iran's Oil Sale Woeshttps://www.energyintel.com/0000017c-59b9-dee7-a97c-5bfdcfa60000Southwest Airlines shares tumble after mass flight cancellations, carrier weighs more cutshttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/southwest-airlines-shares-tumble-after-mass-flight-cancellations-.html- could jet fuel demand be impacted by cancelled flights?

174 - Oil crosses $80 | Does India has a coal crisis? | Never blame green energy

Why California is shutting down its last nuclear planthttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/02/why-is-california-closing-diablo-canyon-nuclear-plant.html- why, if California is trying to increase clean energy while in a power crunch?- safety concerns, but the nuclear chief says that there are no safety concerns and Diablo Canyon could safely operate for 40 years?- consumers won't buy the nuclear powerChina’s Government Secures Fuel Supplies for Winter as the Country Battles a Power Crisis Threathttps://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/47690/20211003/china-fuel-supplies-power-crisis-threat.htmChina Relaxes Coal Mine Safety Efforts on Electricity Crisishttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-relaxes-coal-mine-safety-004516612.htmlBoris Johnson Plans Fossil Fuel-Free U.K. Power Grid by 2035https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/u-k-s-johnson-plans-fossil-fuel-free-power-grid-by-2035- will Britain's power grid even have power unless a lot of nuclear power plants in the next years- The U.K. will reserve a key role for nuclear power in the nation’s electricity system as a backup for renewables in a plan to phase out natural gas by 2035.- Fossil fuels will no longer be used to generate power by the middle of the next decade as the U.K. tackles the double threat of climate change and an energy supply crunch that has sent prices spiraling to record highs. The government says the plan is “a landmark move to end Britain’s dependency on volatile fossil fuels.”- But renewables are also quite volatileClimate change could cost the U.S. up to 10.5 percent of its GDP by 2100, study findshttps://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/19/climate-change-could-cost-us-up-percent-its-gdp-by-study-finds/- weather disasters may be more intense, but over time more wealth is accumulated so obviously the cost of the damage will be more. Especially, wealth is concentrated in areas more prone to weather damage, like on the beach, near fault lines, areas where wildfires happen & the beach in Florida.Interview with Mark Rossano on China:- check out Mark's YouTube channel (PrimaryVisionNetwork), FracSpreadCount and Private Equity Fund- Is China really going to secure energy at all costs? Who/when said this? Said in front of shuttered coal mine (because it was unsafe). Unsafe mines were cleaned up at the beginning of the year.- Costs? political, human, price? weighted towards political and human. Need to expedite bringing mines back. Also, context of fight with Australia - if China goes out to Australia they can resolve issue and bring in their coal. - Will China choose power to residential areas or maintain factory output? China is actually allowing price fluctuation. But have also vowed that there won't be cuts to residential power. - Slashed steel production, which really cuts down on power usage.- Timing also an issue. In September China tries to run ahead of "Golden Week" - getting products ready and shipped by holiday season. But now they are on the other side of that. Typically in Oct/Nov drop in industrial throughput.- could see more "Malaysian crude" coming into China (Actually Iranian crude)- big buildup of crude sitting offshore in China, meanwhile teapots are cutting runs. 68% utilization rate (2018 levels now).- State refiners have cut runs 7%. Fuel oil is at a 6 year high and only time have had more fuel oil in storage was in 2014. Trying to preserve incase need to burn fuel oil in power plants.- China's perspective on OPEC meeting - more concerned about price than volume. Volume is there, the type of crude that Asia wants to buy has plenty. What are they waiting for? Pulling more from Iraq.- Does China need to see a $1 cut in OSPs to really make a difference and would this seem like a slap in the face to the White House if Aramco raises OSPs to the US?

Episode 173 - Cali to close nuclear plant | U.K. Power Grid Fossil Fuel-Free by 2035 | Mark Rossano

Oil is closing in on $80 as supply fears stoke prices higherhttps://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/brent-oil-nears-80-a-barrel-amid-supply-constraints- what could stem the rising tide of oil prices? Covid lockdowns, Chinese economy?- domestic travel is up, according to airlines- will US production ever come back? perhaps more issues at play than just lack of funding - costs of materials, labor has all gone WAY up.Europe Is Pumping Less Gas as Demand Rebounds, Leaving a Gap Russia Is Fillinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-is-pumping-less-gas-as-demand-revives-leaving-a-gap-russia-is-filling-11632308400- despite Europe's rhetoric about the environment, they really want to do business with Russia- Shutting down major Dutch natural gas field next year because of earthquakes. Instead they are getting it from Russia.Citigroup sees gas at $100/MMBtu, if winter is cold enoughhttps://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/9/23/citigroup-sees-gas-at-100mmbtu-if-winter-is-cold-enough- If its too cold in China, what does China do? Let people freeze or power factories?The Climate Case for Property Destructionhttps://newrepublic.com/article/162247/andreas-malm-blow-up-pipeline-climate-direct-action- argues that climate activists should destroy energy infrastructure often enough so that it is too costly for companies to rebuilt and maintain it.- What is the end point? renewable? deindustrialization?Investors Bet Environmental Fears Will Crunch Commodity Supply, Lifting Priceshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-environmental-fears-will-crunch-commodity-supply-lifting-prices-11632350186- pandemic killed investing in oil AND gasChina Needs to Kick its Coal Habit at Home, Toohttps://www.wsj.com/articles/china-needs-to-kick-its-coal-habit-at-home-too-11632477842- Xi says won't finance coal plants abroad (but what about at home?)Power cuts hit homes in north-east Chinahttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58704221As OPEC reopens the taps, African giants losing race to pump morehttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-reopens-taps-african-giants-losing-race-pump-more-2021-09-27/- Nigeria and Angola lose a lot of oil to theft! Nigeria was in the top 5 of hot oil being tapped from pipelines. Similar to Pemex and Nigeria

Episode 172 - Is $90 oil next? | Citigroup sees gas at $100/MMBtu | The Climate Case for Property Destruction - really?

Natural-Gas Prices Surge, and Winter Is Still Months Awayhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-surge-and-winter-is-still-months-away-11631986861- historically speaking crude oil prices actually do warrant new drilling but companies aren't.- Why aren't companies drilling more? Lack of money? Why isn't the money interested?Oil falls as storm-hit U.S. supply trickles back into markethttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steady-us-storm-hit-supply-returns-slowly-2021-09-17/- Will Europe be forced to turn to burning fuel oil this winter for electricity when natural gas and coal are too expensive and will that push oil prices up?- Change in policy could dampen sentiment for movement.Equinor to pump up gas supply for tight European markethttps://www.offshore-energy.biz/equinor-to-pump-up-gas-supply-for-tight-european-market/- Can Norway save the day for Europe? Perhaps.Trade group wants restrictions on U.S. natural gas exportshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trade-group-wants-restrictions-us-natural-gas-exports-2021-09-17/- Will restricting LNG exports help curb US natural gas prices?- IECA says US natural gas prices would need to double from where they are now to spur more drilling. Chemicals, Food, Materials could become more expensive or face shortages.- Government intervention in terms of promoting natural gas drilling.Oil giant Shell sets sights on sustainable aviation fuel take-offhttps://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/oil-giant-shell-sets-sights-sustainable-aviation-fuel-take-off-2021-09-19/- How big of a "thing" is this? Crops could be used to feed people - industrial agriculture is NOT sustainable.China faces a potential Lehman moment. Wall Street is unfazedhttps://www.cnn.com/2021/09/16/business/wall-street-evergrande-china/index.htmlChina’s Evergrande Moment Is Looking More LTCM Than Minskyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-20/china-s-evergrande-moment-is-looking-more-ltcm-than-minskyWhat is China going to do? Ryan's Read: China will do whatever it has to. Can't seperate this story from Taiwan.Dr. Dean Foreman and API Monthly Statistical ReportGlobal natural gas issues:- For this time of year we have never had higher prices- Reflects Russian gas inventories are historically low, wind is underperforming & gas needed to prevent brownouts and LNG shipments being snapped up like crazy- Global natural gas market? Not yet because still so much less being trading internationally than oil- Rush to get cargoes available.Domestic natural gas:- Baker Hughes rig counts have actually gone down despite higher prices- Should be able to drill all day and make money- Producers in Gulf Coast have access to premium markets and should be able to export to internationally markets- Producers in PA, etc. don't have access to global value chainAre exports to blame for US prices?- actually exports motivate production. Haynesville is good example. On the margin there is some and it is creating pressure. Seek to place blame, consumer anger.- We have rolled back prices to before the shale revolution.- Should be able to drill profitably in every major basin so what's the problem? EIA modelled a healthy drilling response and we haven't seen that. Supply chain issues, risk tolerance issues, workforce issues, policy environment, debt taken on my companies- Pipeline capacity isn't really an issue. There are some isolated areas that have bottlenecks and there is flaring, but mostly not.Summer oil demand:- 23 million bpd of oil demand - higher than 2019. - Fuels may be switched around (more gasoline and distillate than jet fuel)- Other oils: intermediate oils naphtha and propylene, etc. historically have been 1/4 of demand, now it's over 30%. In August just under 28%.- Drilling responsiveness isn't there. What are the odds that we will get 1.8 million bpd of production growth in US between now and end of year? Note likely, especially with how rig counts haven't been growing.- Some price issues should recede as supply chain issues resolve but with oil and gas, it's a different issue. If the economy remains on track, we will see serious pressure on oil and gas in next year. Lack of investment, long lead time for projects outside the US.- EIA says global projected highs for oil demand are higher than 2019. IEA has a more bearish view on fossil fuels.- If supply can't keep up with economic growth then it could push prices up which will stifle demand.- Numbers economically are scorching hot - so much stimulus and it has had an impact. Even if price inflation overshoots, we will still see a lot of growth.- Global capital investment has significantly declined. Drilling activity has been muted.

Episode 171 - Natural-Gas Prices Surge | Oil giant Shell sets sights on sustainable aviation fuel take-off |Dr. Dean Foreman API

Economic Costs Accumulate as Countries Worried by Delta Variant Extend Border Closureshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-costs-accumulate-as-countries-worried-by-delta-variant-extend-border-closures-11631387873Is the Delta wave over? Or has it not hit the Northeast?Can we assume that economic activity and travel isn't going to go back down?City in China restricts movement amid outbreakhttps://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-city-in-china-restricts-movement-amid-outbreak/a-59157352City closures will impact gasoline and jet fuel in ChinaOil prices in the low $70s put pressure on Chinese economyNearly 185,000 b/d of US Gulf oil production returns as Ida recovery continueshttps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/091021-nearly-185000-bd-of-us-gulf-oil-production-returns-as-ida-recovery-continuesStill 50% of offshore production offlineShell having particular difficulties getting things back onlineEconomic Costs Accumulate as Countries Worried by Delta Variant Extend Border Closureshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-costs-accumulate-as-countries-worried-by-delta-variant-extend-border-closures-11631387873European Power SituationAnalysis: Expensive winter ahead as Europe's power prices surgehttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/expensive-winter-ahead-europes-power-prices-surge-2021-09-10/Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-prices-in-europe-hit-records-after-wind-stops-blowing-11631528258German Power, Carbon Rise to Record on Soaring Gas Priceshttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-power-carbon-rise-record-080615144.htmlRussia is pumping a lot less natural gas to Europe all of a sudden — and it is not clear whyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/russia-is-pumping-less-natural-gas-to-europe-as-nord-stream-2-nears-completion.htmlCharging points for electric cars will be preset to turn off for NINE HOURS a day amid fears they will cause blackouts if government hits target for phasing out petrol and dieselhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9982253/Charging-points-electric-cars-preset-turn-NINE-HOURS-day.html- Is Gazprom deliberately putting the squeeze on the European Union to get Nord Stream II started up?- Consumers don't have extra money to pay prices?

Episode 170 - Is the Delta wave over? | Still 50% of offshore production offline | German Power, Carbon Rise to Record on Soaring Gas Price

Connect with our guest: https://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuyOil steadies as Hurricane Ida weakens, OPEC+ in focushttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-hurricane-ida-pounds-us-crude-patch-louisiana-2021-08-30/Louisiana refineries slammed by Hurricane Idahttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2248918-louisiana-refineries-slammed-by-hurricane-idaColonial Pipeline expects to resume service after assessing Ida’s impacthttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/29/colonial-pipeline-halts-gasoline-deliveries-to-the-us-east-coast-due-to-hurricane-ida.html- As far as hurricanes go, not as much damage to oil infrastructure and refining as we have seen in the past- Refining issues could persist due to power outages and lack of feedstock- Unclear when any of that can restart given the fact that Louisiana is experiencing severe power outages and many refineries may have to contend with flooding conditions which can keep them offline for quite awhile and can cause damage.- Gasoline prices are up 2% in anticipation, although the storm comes right as summer demand for gasoline is starting to wane.- Some good news from ExxonMobil's Baton Rouge refinery - reported no significant damage from the hurricane. But they are still shutting down units and flaring gas. Once they have access to necessary feedstocks and support from third-party utilities they expect to return to normal production.OPEC+ faces mixed market signals after US pressure to increase oil supplieshttps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/082721-opec-faces-mixed-market-signals-after-us-pressure-to-increase-oil-suppliesOPEC+ could reconsider output increase, says Kuwaiti oil ministerhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-could-reconsider-output-increase-says-kuwaiti-oil-minister-2021-08-29/- Unlikely for OPEC to change its plans to increase oil production by 400,000 bpd - Kuwait suggested this might be possible, but unlikely given that Brent is still above $70Climate Change to Be Treated as Public-Health Issuehttps://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-to-be-treated-as-public-health-issue-11630315800- plan to reduce GHG emissions from the healthcare system??Interview with GasBuddyGuy Patrick DeHaan:- tremendous recovery with gasoline demand this summer- driving season remained resilient despite Delta variant- demand starting to slip as driving season coming to an end- EIA implied demand last week 9.7 million bpd, GasBuddy slightly lower 9.3 million bpd- News about Covid cases surging hasn't impacted gasoline consumption distribution- Power outages from Hurricane Ida are very extensive, refining down due to power outages and no RVP wavers given out by EPA. Would allow refiners to distribute fall gasoline early (before Sept 15).- Bottlenecks due to Ida at various levels will persist for days or longer. Refineries need power, nitrogen, oxygen, etc. We could see sizable inventory draws in PADD3- Could see crude oil inventories rising due to refineries offline.- Colonial temporarily shut down 2 lines, could squeeze PADD1 inventories- Gasoline from Great Lakes may go south or east to make up for losses there.- Even before storm well formed, inbound gasoline deliveries to PADD1 seen and will continue now that Louisiana refineries offline.- Products and blending components may be diverted to areas in the US- Expect to see abnormal numbers in EIA data for weeks, 3 or 4 weeks but contingent on how long it takes refineries to start churning out products again.- Will also depend on how long it takes for products to start flowing through pipelines

Episode 169 - Market sends mixed signals | Patrick De Haan with GasBuddy

Oil jumps 4% on weaker dollar after seven days of losseshttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/23/oil-markets-covid-dollar.htmlCrude Oil Surges; Rebounding After Torrid Weekhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-surges-rebounding-torrid-092802254.html- Can oil really hit $80 by the end of the year?- Last week's selloff was overdone, so oil is rebounding now.- Plenty of reasons to see demand suffering due to coronavirus- Sentiment is a real thing with the oil market. Perception of how coronavirus will impact demand has a real impact.California's clean grid may lean on oil, gas to avoid summer blackoutshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/californias-clean-grid-may-lean-oil-gas-avoid-summer-blackouts-2021-08-11/- Irony of building "temporary" natural gas plants to keep the lights on in California, which claims to have a "clean" grid- could the governor recall impactUS nears proposal of biofuel targets for 2021-22https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2246546-us-nears-proposal-of-biofuel-targets-for-202122- biofuel mandates could be lowered for 2021 and 2022- is the RFS really worthwhile at this point?Hydrogen lobbyist quits, slams oil companies’ “false claims” about blue hydrogenhttps://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/08/ex-lobbyist-slams-blue-hydrogen-says-it-would-lock-in-fossil-fuel-dependence/- Blue hydrogen is only less carbon intensive if carbon is captured at every step of the way, and that is unlikely.- just because you don't see the pollution at the end result doesn't mean its not a carbon intensive processCarbon taxes could hurt Russia more than sanctions, says oil tsarhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/carbon-taxes-could-hurt-russia-more-than-sanctions-says-oil-tsar-kommersant-2021-08-23/- border adjustment taxes for carbon on aluminum, iron ore, pipes, electricity, cement could have major impact on Russian exports.Nord Stream 2: Russia must not use gas pipeline as weapon, says Merkelhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58301099- Is the concern over Russia's threat to the EU overblown? Is Europe really afraid of Russia?- Is it mostly a Ukrainian-Russian issue and western Europe isn't concerned?- If the EU is confident about doing businesses with Russia to the extent that they are willing to rely on Russia for 40% of their natural gas, then why is the US afraid of Russia?

Episode 168 - Oil jumps, for now | Is oil headed towards $80? | California needs oil and gas

Watch us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/WarRoomMediaListen to Inside the War Room: https://shor.by/insidethewarroomOil prices drop amid faltering demand outlook in Chinahttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/oil-markets-demand-outlook-in-china-covid.html- Is it Delta variant? Is is lockdowns? Is it crackdowns on independent refiners?- Are there larger economic forces at play in Chinese demand?- Can China put pressure on OPEC to provide what they want?OPEC+ sees no need to speed up oil cuts easing despite U.S. callshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-sees-no-need-speed-up-oil-cuts-easing-despite-us-calls-sources-2021-08-16/- Doesn't cost Biden any political capital to call for lower oil prices- No surprise that OPEC said no- OPEC is already increasing productionChina Has Thousands of Hydropower Projects It Doesn't Wanthttps://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/china-has-thousands-of-hydropower-projects-it-doesnt-want- government planning is not as great as people make it out to be- going to have to fix these dams- China can pull off a lot of amazing projects but also does a lot of really idiotic stuffModi says India will soon unveil $1.35 trln infrastructure planhttps://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-modi-says-135-trillion-infrastructure-plan-be-unveiled-soon-2021-08-15/- infrastructure spending plan will increase oil demand- have to generate economic growth after killing medium and small businessesRosneft to chase production growthhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2244244-rosneft-to-chase-production-growth- future is still oil for Russia- Rosneft is expanding its oil production capacityDr. Dean Foreman on the Monthly Statistical Report- Demand is back, and so is the economy! Summer travel and pent up demand for travel- Comparing summer demand to November 2019 demand is still a little off, but If compare July 2021 to July 2019 only off a little bit.- Gasoline demand is strong into August- Lowest crude oil inventories since December 2019. Drawn down 16% year on year. A little under 7% of lowest point of last 5 years.- Refinery utilization is very strong (91%). ONly 2019 did we average higher. Exports are down. Still a net exporter for refined products, though more crude oil imports.- Distillate economic indicator - overheating economy and facing inflationary pressures. This is correlated with Univ Michigan consumer sentiment survey,- Petrochemicals have been the strongest area of sustained growth for US oil. Continuing need for plastics. Record demand in July. 5.6 million bpd consumed.- Creeping up of oil directed rigs this year. Have generally been range bound in production in US and only just broke out of that range for June and July - 11.3 million bpd. Good sign for where crude oil production might go, but will take awhile. Natural gas is another story. 6 month future prices are $4/million btu and would indicate more natural gas drilling activity. Why aren't we seeing this? Capital constraints and people constraints. - If you are in Appalachia and want to drill you are finding yourself constrained by a variety of factors including no way to export it and pipeline constraints bringing it to domestic markets.- There is a real cost to being a net importer again.

Energy Week 167 - China demand is down | India's $1.35 trln infrastructure plan | Dr. Dean Foreman API

https://www.youtube.com/c/WarRoomMediaOil falls in biggest weekly decline in months on demand worrieshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-set-biggest-weekly-loss-since-oct-delta-variant-fans-demand-worries-2021-08-06/- Is the $80 oil call under threat?- Oil company stocks are holing pretty steady, despite good earnings and falling oil- Is it Delta? What IS Delta, and why do we need to know?Oil majors tread cautiously in Permian shalehttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2242395-oil-majors-tread-cautiously-in-permian-shale- pioneer not expecting to do any major acquisitions - How much is ESG, Covid, fear of OPEC, paying down debt, Biden admin fear, fear of uncertaintyUtilities Eye Mini Nuclear Reactors as Climate Concerns Growhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/utilities-eye-mini-nuclear-reactors-as-climate-concerns-grow-11627905600- 345 megawatt reactor will cost $1 billion, $50 to $60 range per megawatt-hourClimate chief warns of ‘catastrophe’ and then backs oil and coal planshttps://metro.co.uk/2021/08/08/climate-chief-warns-of-catastrophe-and-then-backs-oil-and-coal-plans-15058669/Aramco posts nearly 300% leap in second-quarter profit on global demand recoveryhttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/08/saudi-aramco-posts-near-300percent-leap-in-q2-profit-on-global-demand-recovery.htmlMore Oil Shipped as Dakota Access Pipeline Expansion Startshttps://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2021-08-06/more-oil-shipped-as-dakota-access-pipeline-expansion-starts- pipeline expansion is going through, rate of oil increasingInfrastructure Bill Has Big Wins for Oil, Climate Advocates Sayhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/biden-s-agenda-is-tainted-by-oil-interests-say-climate-advocates- big oil wins $10 billion for carbon capture and LNG plant in Alaska wins loan guarantees, $8 billion for hydrogen but not necessarily green and blue- $21.5 billion to create an Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations!'This is no way to make policy': Cryptocurrency advocates express frustration with bipartisan infrastructure languagehttps://www.cnn.com/2021/08/07/politics/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill/index.html- Provision will expand number of cryptocurrency users who would have report filings to the IRShttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-29/biden-trade-policy-can-advance-climate-goals-with-infrastructure

Episode 166 - Dakota Access Pipeline Expansion | Aramco has huge quarter | Infrastructure Bill a win for big oil?

Subscribe to the YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/c/WarRoomMediaOn this episode of the Energy Week Podcast, Ryan Ray and Ellen Wald talk about Chinese demand, Q2 earnings, and the cost of solar. Oil prices slide on worries over China economy and higher crude outputhttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/02/oil-markets-china-economy-opec.html- highest gasoline consumption- broke record for TSA screenings showing Americans are on the move- Chinese economy slowing based on higher raw material costs, flooding issues and other- Can we expect China to keep having double digit growthVitol's Muller expects China to release 25-30 mil bbls from strategic oil reserves in Q4https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/080121-vitols-muller-expects-china-to-release-25-30-mil-bbls-from-strategic-oil-reserves-in-q4- China’s way of saying oil prices are too high for them- will it help cool off oil prices?- How long can China play the SPR game?Exxon, Chevron Beat Q2 Forecasts But Contrast On Paying Shareholders Morehttps://www.investors.com/news/exxon-stock-chevron-stock-exxon-earnings-chevron-earnings-q2-2021/- both companies beat expectations but share prices fell- when will they put money into capex?Behind the Rise of U.S. Solar Power, a Mountain of Chinese Coalhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-the-rise-of-u-s-solar-power-a-mountain-of-chinese-coal-11627734770- People want to buy the cheaper solar panels even if they are produced using lots of coal fired energyU.S. Blames Iran for Drone Attack on Israeli-Linked Tankerhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-blames-iran-for-drone-attack-on-israeli-linked-tanker-11627848609Rising gasoline prices signal trouble for climate change actionhttps://www.axios.com/gas-prices-climate-change-325881b1-fa78-41c9-8cb3-1d56d0ed9328.html- higher prices mean people don’t want to pay for renewables, EVs‘Greenflation’ threatens to derail climate change actionhttps://www.ft.com/content/49c19d8f-c3c3-4450-b869-50c7126076ee- All of the products we need to combat climate change like copper and aluminum are getting too expensive because demand for producing them is up.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-29/biden-trade-policy-can-advance-climate-goals-with-infrastructure

Episode 165 - Chinese demand | Q2 earnings | The True Cost of Solar

Oil falls as coronavirus, slower China imports hit demandhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-little-changed-coronavirus-floods-threaten-demand-2021-07-26/- how much impact will floods in China actually have on demand?- and what about the teapots? their quotes are down in H2Chinese oil companies fill void in Iraqhttps://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/07/chinese-oil-companies-fill-void-iraq- But do Chinese companies provide the quality needed? In Iran, largely unsatisfied. Will Iraq suffer similar issues?EV Batteries: The Next Victim of High Commodity Prices?https://www.wsj.com/articles/ev-batteries-the-next-victim-of-high-commodity-prices-11626950276- China controls 40% of supply chain when it comes to components of EV battery manufacturing. Big Oil Companies Push Hydrogen as Green Alternative, but Obstacles Remainhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/big-oil-companies-push-hydrogen-as-green-alternative-but-obstacles-remain-11627297201- it's expensive and really hard to do with alternative or renewable energy.US rethinks sanctions approachhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2237748-us-rethinks-sanctions-approach- reviewing sanctions policy is probably a good idea since they haven't achieved anything, and what were they designed to achieve anyway?U.S. weighs crackdown on China's import of Iranian oilhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-weighs-crackdown-chinas-import-iranian-oil-2021-07-23/- Would this really do much to pressure Iran anyway?Opec+ issues August, September quotashttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2237794-opec-issues-august-september-quotas- gasoline demand up last week, but have we reached the limit of how much gasoline demand we will see this year?

Episode 164 - US will rethink policy on sanctions, sort of | How are commodity prices impacting EVs?

Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSRhttps://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/apis-economic-industry-outlook- validating what we’ve seen- Urban driving activity on the gasoline side + tourism- Jet fuel demand is up, June is the strongest month so far. 4th straight month of increase for jet fuel. 8% increase from May. Still 1/5 below where it was in 2019. International travel hasn’t picked up yet.- petrochemicals: medical plastics and packing plastics demand continuing from last year. double digit gains from last year.- Total demand for distillates has basically peaked, but on growth on a year to year basis its showing strong economic activity and industrial growth. Strong sign of growth.- Refining picking up, inventories there, ready to be used. Crude oil inventories are edging down. Indication that supply for crude oil isn’t keeping up with demand. We are importing more of what we need. We have an issue looking out over next year. When we consider demand growth with drilling activity even with strong productivity at well level, we need to see more drilling activity than we’ve been seeing to keep up.- Inventories are at the bottom of the 5 year band. Relatively low. But the upper end of the band was expanded with major inventory builds in 2020.- Permian doesn’t have pipeline constraints but other basins have pipeline constraints so there may be hesitancy to invest in more production. But they can all be profitable at recent prices.- Pickup in crude oil exports from US in June. Pull from international demand. Exports will soon be blamed for lifting prices in the US. - Inflation: Federal reserve needs to look harder at oil and gas and inflation, especially impact on consumers. EIA has assumed that domestic drilling would be and will be stronger than it has been.- Natural gas outlook: drilling activity low, spot prices for natural gas high, futures curve, would seen like its economic to do dedicated natural gas drilling. There is some pick up in Ohio and Pennsylvania drilling but lack of associated natural gas from fracking.www.api.orgBuilding Solar Farms May Not Build the Middle Classhttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/business/economy/green-energy-jobs-economy.html- operating solar and wind plants aren’t the same as oil, gas and nuclear plants and don’t require the same type of skilled workers or as many so when plants shut down, workers are losing jobsEuropean aircraft movements rising: Eurocontrolhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2235622-european-aircraft-movements-rising-eurocontrol- flights are up to 23,000 compared to 36,000 on the same day in 2019.Emissions could hit new record by 2023 without more spending on clean energyhttps://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/renewables/less-than-15-of-covid-19-recovery-spending-went-to-green-energy- even with more spending on clean energy emissions will riseOil firms after slide but COVID-19 and supply concerns remainhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-after-rout-rising-covid-19-cases-opec-supply-deal-2021-07-20/

Episode 163 - Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSR | Does solar create middle class jobs | European aircraft movements rising

U.S. Refineries Eye Week of Strong Gasoline Demand With Cautionhttps://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/u-s-refineries-eye-week-of-strong-gasoline-demand-with-caution- summer is in full swing and so is gasoline demand- Was July 4 the height of gasoline demand? Is is downhill from here? Or will we see another surge when people go back to work/office in September?https://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/1414286726281969671?s=20Biden's quest for cheap gasoline tests his climate goalshttps://www.eenews.net/stories/1063736567- Did Biden really try to get OPEC+ to increase production?- Is Biden really concerned about higher gasoline prices right now?Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecasthttps://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-inflation-is-here-to-stay-for-years-economists-forecast-11626008400- 3.9% inflation in May excluding energy and food. 3.9% including food and energy. - But energy impacts everything over the line- Fed still thinks inflation is transitory due to bottlenecks and hiring difficulties.- But lots of industries are having issues that aren’t related to CovidOPEC+ yet to make progress in resolving impasse, sources sayhttps://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/opec-yet-to-make-progress-in-resolving-impasse-sources-say- Will OPEC get its act together? Analysis: Big Oil keeps brakes on spending even with crude rally windfallhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/big-oil-keeps-brakes-spending-even-with-crude-rally-windfall-2021-07-12/BP Report Tries To Explain What Really Happened to Energy Markets in 2020https://jpt.spe.org/bp-report-tries-to-explain-what-really-happened-to-energy-markets-in-2020- China to the rescue when it comes to natural gas demand in 2020- Will natural gas prices decline or increase as we get into winter?

Episode 162: Gasoline demand back for now | Biden's quest for cheap gasoline tests his climate goals

More from Ryan:https://twitter.com/ryanraysrhttps://shor.by/insidethewarroomConnect with Ellen:https://twitter.com/EnergzdEconomyPaul Hickin with S&P Global Platts @GramscianPaulUndersea gas pipeline rupture causes fire in Gulf of Mexicohttps://apnews.com/article/mexico-fires-business-e6e053384af21242722f2f3fc1acb27d- PEMEX fault, not “capitalism”- Mexico actually the first country to nationalize its subsoil resources- PEMEX doesn’t maintain infrastructure well and chronically underfundedExplosion rocks Caspian Sea near Azerbaijan gas fieldhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/05/explosion-rocks-caspian-sea-near-azerbaijan-gas-fieldSaudi oil minister highlights need to extend Opec+ dealhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2231047-saudi-oil-minister-highlights-need-to-extend-opec-dealSaudi Arabia pushes back on UAE opposition to OPEC+ dealhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-energy-minister-pushes-back-uae-request-over-baseline-oil-output-says-2021-07-04/- Iraq committed to OPEC+ deal, doesn’t want a price war- Favors extendedPaul Hickin with S&P Global Platts @GramscianPaul- OPEC and OPEC+ — different situation from Saudi/Russia spat last year- When UAE first raised baseline issue, prices were only in $40 range. Different scenario now- UAE made more sacrifices than other members- UAE looking to go up to 5 mbpd by 2030- Is it realistic to change the baselines? Would be hard is only some baselines change.- Prices have surged a bit - perhaps likelihood of no new deal? Or an OPEC fudge?- China’s oil storage: little bit of a black box- Has gone from 50 days cover in imports 5 years ago to 100 days of imports. Puts China on par with IEA countries, which have to cover 90 days- Shows how important China views oil, still.- 2 million bpd in refining/petrochemical capacity to come online- If China wants to play a role as a swing consumer, it could do this using its oil stocks. - China buys when crude is cheap, less keen when crude is higher, but still buy a lot because of domestic demand. Oil security means won’t draw down too far into reserves.

Episode 161 - Pemex pipeline sets ocean ablaze | OPEC can't reach deal | Paul Hickin with S&P Global Platts

Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you.

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Energy Week

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