Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Madeleine Albright's recent article on “The Coming Democratic Revival” in Foreign Affairs. They discuss whether the United States is in a position to promote democracy and push back against autocracy abroad, or whether it needs to focus primarily on its own democratic institutions and processes. Melanie commends Nancy Mace for holding Steve Bannon to account. Chris calls out President Joe Biden for his recent confusing statement on Taiwan. And Zack remembers Colin Powell for a life well lived. Links: Madeleine K. Albright, “The Coming Democratic Revival,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-19/madeleine-albright-coming-democratic-revival. “As Sudan's Government Wobbles, Coups are Making a Comeback,” The Economist, Oct. 25, 2021, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/10/25/as-sudans-government-wobbles-coups-are-making-a-comeback.  Caitlyn Byrd, “SC's Nancy Mace Joins Democrats in Vote to Hold Steven Bannon in Contempt of Congress,” Oct. 21, 2021, https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article255184472.html.  Jack Norton, Twitter, Oct. 25, 2021, https://twitter.com/JackNorton8064/status/1452525971442044930.  Jane Street, Twitter, Oct. 19, 2021, https://twitter.com/janestreet/status/1450608726352740355. Joseph R. Biden Jr., “Not So Deft On Taiwan,” Washington Post, May 2, 2001, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2001/05/02/not-so-deft-on-taiwan/2adf3075-ee98-4e70-9be0-5459ce1edd5d/. Josh Rudolph, “Regulating the Enablers,” Alliance for Securing Democracy, Sept. 2021, https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/regulating-the-enablers/. Michael Cohen, “The Foreign Policy ‘Credibility’ Argument Is, Well, Not Credible,” The New Republic, Oct. 18, 2021, https://newrepublic.com/article/164039/foreign-policy-credibility-argument-afghanistan-withdrawal. NAEI Annual Student Competition, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/. Pew Research Center, “Citizens in Advanced Economies Want Significant Changes to Their Political Systems,” October 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/10/PG_2021.10.21_Democracy_FINAL.pdf. “SFRC Approves 33 Critical Foreign Policy Nominations,” United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Oct. 19, 2021, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/sfrc-approves-33-critical-foreign-policy-nominations-. Steven F. Knott, American Foreign Policy to 1899: Core Documents (Ashland, OH: Ashbrook Center, 2021), https://teachingamericanhistory.org/product/american-foreign-policy-to-1899/.  Ted Galen Carpenter, “Biden and His Foreign Policy Team At Least Need to Get on the Same Page Regarding Taiwan,” Cato at Liberty Blog, Oct. 25, 2021, https://www.cato.org/blog/biden-foreign-policy-team-least-need-get-same-page-regarding-taiwan.

Net Assessment

Should Biden Be Pro-Democracy or Anti-Autocracy?

Chris, Melanie, and Zack return to discuss Richard Haass’s critique of “Washington’s new flawed foreign policy consensus.” The Council on Foreign Relations president laments the bipartisan turn away from the mostly internationalist spirit that has informed U.S. foreign policy since the end of the World War II. Is he right? Does such a consensus exist? And does that explain why successive U.S. presidents seem so skeptical of internationalism? The three also try to discern what Haass favors as an alternative, but conclude that dissatisfaction with the current direction of U.S. foreign policy doesn’t easily translate into specific and implantable policies. Grievances for Katherine Tai for an underwhelming speech on U.S. trade policy, for Sens. Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley for holding up ambassadorial appointments, and to those who harassed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — in the restroom! — for being … jerks. Attagirl to Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa who braved abuse and intimidation for uncovering corruption and misrule in the Philippines and elsewhere. Chris gives a shout out to Reps. Jim McGovern and Peter Meijer for introducing legislation to rein in executive power, and Melanie praises the developers at GlaxoSmithKline for their life-saving new malaria vaccine. She also gives a special shout out to her nephew Zack and his Utah state champion golf team at Long Peak High School. Links: Richard Haass, “The Age of America First: Washington’s Flawed New Foreign Policy Consensus,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-29/biden-trump-age-america-first. Richard Haass, “What Mike Pompeo doesn’t understand about China, Richard Nixon and U.S. foreign policy,” Washington Post, July 25, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/25/what-mike-pompeo-doesnt-understand-about-china-richard-nixon-us-foreign-policy/.   New American Engagement Initiative Annual Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/. New American Engagement Initiative Future Foreign Policy series with Rep. Joaquin Castro, Monday, Oct. 18 at 3:30 pm, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy-series-featuring-rep-joaquin-castro/. “America is shorthanded in foreign affairs. Thanks, Ted Cruz,” Washington Post, Oct. 10, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/10/10/america-is-shorthanded-foreign-affairs-thanks-ted-cruz/. Ankit Panda Twitter, https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1447366126447570946?s=12. Apoorva Mandavilli, "A 'Historic Event': First Malaria Vaccine Approved by WHO," New York Times, Oct. 6, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/health/malaria-vaccine-who.html.  Connor O’Brien, “Lawmakers aim for blockbuster overhaul of war powers, arms sales,” POLITICO, Sept. 30, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/30/war-powers-act-bipartisan-overhaul-514794. Dina Smeltz, Ivo Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Emily Sullivan, "A Foreign Policy for the Middle Class--What Americans Think," Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Oct. 2021, https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/ccs2021_fpmc_0.pdf. Peggy Noonan, "Progressives Hold the Capital Captive," Wall Street Journal, Oct. 7, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-progressives-aoc-squad-sinema-reconciliation-infrastructure-lbj-approval-polling-11633643510.  Tyler Haslam, "High School Golf: Kihei Akina Leads Lone Peak Knights to 8th State Title in 9 Years," Deseret News, Oct. 5, 2021, https://www.deseret.com/2021/10/5/22708095/high-school-golf-kihei-akina-leads-lone-peak-knighs-to-8th-state-title-in-9-years-6a-uhsaa.   

Richard Haass Is Unhappy

Zack and Melanie are joined by Adam Mount, senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, to discuss the AUKUS security agreement between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. What does the pact say about these countries' assessment of the influence and ambition of China in the Indo-Pacific? France, which had an agreement to provide Australia with conventionally-powered submarines, was dropped in favor of the United States and United Kingdom helping Australia to develop nuclear-propelled submarines. Can AUKUS members repair their relationships with France? The deal provides a framework for cooperation between the countries on sharing information related to cyber, AI, quantum computing, and other technology. How might this arrangement affect national security as well as societies in the coming decades? Finally, should we be concerned about proliferation?  Zack wishes the administration would be more forthright about how it worked to secure the return of hostages from China, Adam is unhappy with the departure of an important voice on nuclear issues from the Pentagon, and Melanie is happy it’s finally autumn! Links: Andrew S. Erickson, “Australia Badly Needs Nuclear Submarines,” Foreign Policy, Sept. 20, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/20/australia-aukus-nuclear-submarines-china/. Ashley Townshend, “Far From Breaking with the Past, AUKUS Advances Australia’s Commitment to Collective Defence,” The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Sept. 24, 2021, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/far-from-breaking-with-the-past-aukus-advances-australias-commitment-to-collective-defence/.   Caitlin Talmadge, "Don't Sink the Nuclear Submarine Deal," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 27, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-27/dont-sink-nuclear-submarine-deal. Daniel Baer, “Sub Snub Has Paris in a Tizzy over AUKUS,” Foreign Policy, Sept. 17, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/17/aukus-france-submarines-australia/. Gender Champions in Nuclear Policy, https://www.gcnuclearpolicy.org/. James M. Acton, “Why the AUKUS Submarine Deal Is Bad for Nonproliferation—And What to Do About It,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sept. 21, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/21/why-aukus-submarine-deal-is-bad-for-nonproliferation-and-what-to-do-about-it-pub-85399. IPA Talent Exchange Program, Partnership for Public Service, https://ourpublicservice.org/ipa-talent-exchange/. Jen Psaki, "Press Briefing by Press Secretary," The White House, Sept. 27, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/27/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-september-27-2021/. Josh Zumbrun, “World Bank Cancels Flagship ‘Doing Business’ Report After Investigation,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 16, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-bank-cancels-flagship-doing-business-report-after-investigation-11631811663. Lindsay Hughes, “Does Australia Need Nuclear-Powered Submarines and a Nuclear-Power Sector?”, Future Directions International, Feb. 25, 2021, https://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/does-australia-need-nuclear-powered-submarines-and-a-nuclear-power-sector/.

Much Ado About AUKUS

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether there is a "Biden doctrine" and if so, what exactly it is. They identify two separate threads in Biden's thinking and that of his team — one idealist vision for global democracy, and a second more pragmatic and restrained approach. These diverging views do not, at the moment, appear to have yet been resolved. Chris also questions George W. Bush on the 20th anniversary of Sept. 11, Melanie weighs in on the Met Gala, and Zack supports expanding Selective Service registration.    Brian O’Toole, “Biden’s Empty Posts are a National Security Problem,” Atlantic Council, August 10, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/bidens-empty-posts-are-a-national-security-problem/. Danielle L. Lupton, "Biden Has a Narrow Window to Restore U.S. Credibility," Foreign Affairs, Feb. 8, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-08/biden-has-narrow-window-restore-us-credibility. Dominic Tierney, “In Search of the Biden Doctrine,” FPRI, November 9, 2021, https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/in-search-of-the-biden-doctrine/. Evan Montgomery, "Credibility Controversies: The Implications of Afghanistan for the Indo-Pacific," War on the Rocks, Sept. 7, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/credibility-controversies-the-implications-of-afghanistan-for-the-indo-pacific/. Hal Brands, "The Emerging Biden Doctrine," Foreign Affairs, June 29, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-06-29/emerging-biden-doctrine. Helene Cooper, Lara Jakes, Michael D. Shear, and Michael Crowley, "In Afghan Withdrawal, a Biden Doctrine Surfaces," New York Times, Sept. 4, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/04/us/politics/biden-doctrine-afghanistan-foreign-policy.html. Jay Hancock, “Military expected to be used sparingly,” Baltimore Sun, December 17, 2000, https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2000-12-17-0012170148-story.html. Jada Yuan, “The Met Gala is Full of Rich People. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Wore a Dress with a Message: ‘Tax the Rich,’” Washington Post, Sept. 14, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2021/09/14/aoc-met-gala-tax-rich-dress/.  Joe Biden, "Remarks by President Biden on the End of the War in Afghanistan," The White House, Aug. 31, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/. Joe Biden, "Why America Must Lead Again," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again. Joshua Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, "Biden the Realist," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 9, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-09/biden-realist. Joshua D. Kertzer, "American Credibility After Afghanistan," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 2, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-09-02/american-credibility-after-afghanistan. New American Engagement Initiative, Annual Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/. Peter Dombrowski and John Glaser, “A Distracted Grand Strategy,” Power Problems, Sept. 7, 2021, https://www.cato.org/multimedia/power-problems/distracted-grand-strategy. Scott Lincicome, “US Regulators Are Failing the (Rapid) Test,” CATO, Sept. 1, 2021, https://www.cato.org/commentary/us-regulators-are-failing-rapid-test. Task Force on U.S.-China Policy, "China's New Direction: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy," Asia Society and U.C. San Diego, September 2021, https://china.ucsd.edu/_files/2021-china-new-direction-report.pdf. Thomas Wright, "Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win," The Atlantic, June 9, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/06/joe-biden-foreign-policy/619130/.

A Tale of Two Biden Doctrines

As we approach the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Daniel Byman’s article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, “The Good Enough Doctrine: Learning to Live with Terrorism.” Byman surveys the various aspects of the “Global War on Terror” and concludes that, on balance, the United States and others have achieved a level of effort that is both strategically and politically feasible. But can we actually tolerate some level of risk from terrorism in the same way that we tolerate other dangers, from pandemics to severe weather events, or will political leaders always resort to maximalist promises to eliminate terrorism permanently? Was it inevitable that the Global War on Terror would amplify xenophobia and nativism, and what else can we learn from the efforts of the past 20 years? Grievances for critics of the "Blob,” special scorn for Sen. Chris Murphy, and "attapeople" to U.S. military personnel for their enormous sacrifices in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and to those civilians who are now helping to resettle Afghan refugees, as well as those displaced from other disasters.   Daniel Byman’s “The Good Enough Doctrine: Learning to Live with Terrorism,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-08-24/good-enough-doctrine Richard Stevenson, “Bush Faults Kerry on Terrorism Remarks,” New York Times, Oct. 12, 2004, https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/12/politics/campaign/bush-faults-kerry-on-terrorism-remarks.html Christopher Preble, “We Are Terrorized: Why US Counterterrorism Policy Is Failing, and Why It Can’t Be Easily Fixed,” War on the Rocks, Jan. 8, 2016, https://warontherocks.com/2016/01/we-are-terrorized-why-u-s-counterterrorism-policy-is-failing-and-why-it-cant-be-easily-fixed/ Bill McCarthy, “Charlie Kirk baselessly claims Biden intentionally let Afghanistan fall to alter US population,” Politifact, Aug. 19, 2021, https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/aug/19/charlie-kirk/charlie-kirk-baselessly-claims-biden-intentionally/ Jordan Mendoza, “Want to donate or volunteer to assist those affected by Hurricane Ida? Here's how to help,” USA Today, Aug. 30, 2021, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/08/30/hurricane-ida-help-storm-victims-louisiana-mississippi/5648004001/ “How to Help Afghan Refugees and the Relief Effort,” New York Times, Aug. 20, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/world/asia/how-to-help-afghanistan-refugees.html “Future Foreign Policy series: Congress and AUMF repeal,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, Sept. 16, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy-congress-and-aumf-repeal/ Tanisha M. Fazal, "The Case for Complacency," Foreign Affairs, September/October 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2021-08-24/case-complacency. Joe Biden, "Remarks on the End of the War in Afghanistan," The White House, Aug. 31, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/. Darren Lim, Zack Cooper, and Ashley Feng, “Trust and Diversify: A Geoeconomic Strategy for the Australia-US Alliance,” US Studies Centre, Sept. 2, 2021, https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/trust-and-diversify-a-geoeconomic-strategy-for-the-australia-us-alliance. Susanna Patton and Ashley Townshend, “Kamala Harris's Asia Trip Can't Fix Biden's Troubled Indo-Pacific Strategy,” Foreign Policy, Aug. 24, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/24/kamala-harris-singapore-vietnam-southeast-asia-trip-biden-indo-pacific-strategy/. Elliot Ackerman, “What the War on Terror Cost America,” Foreign Affairs, Aug. 27, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-08-24/winning-ugly. Michael McKinley, “We All Lost Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs, Aug. 16, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-16/we-all-lost-afghanistan-taliban.  Jeffrey A. Singer, “Society Will Never Be Free of COVID-19--It's Time to Embrace Harm Reduction,” Cato, Aug. 26, 2021, https://www.cato.org/pandemics-policy/society-will-never-be-free-covid-19-its-time-embrace-harm-reduction.   

Did Anyone Win the ‘Global War on Terror’?

Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about the Biden administration’s disastrous military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Whose fault is this debacle? What is the manner of our exit doing to America’s credibility, with friends and adversaries alike, around the world? In a year, is anyone going to remember or care what has happened in the last several weeks? Have we learned any lessons from our two decades in Afghanistan, and will there be any accountability for bad decisions made along the way? Zack pushes back on comments made by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan about the withdrawal, Chris calls out the administration’s unwillingness to accept more refugees, and Melanie is grateful for those taking the lead on helping to get refugees settled into new homes.   Gideon Rachman, “Joe Biden’s Credibility Has Been Shredded in Afghanistan,” Financial Times, August 13, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/71629b28-f730-431a-b8da-a2d45387a0c2. Fred Kagan, “Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To,” New York Times, August 12, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html. Joe Biden, “Statement by President Joe Biden on Afghanistan, White House, August 14, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/14/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-afghanistan/. Greg Jaffe, “From Hubris to Humiliation: America’s Warrior Class Contends with the Abject Failure of Its Afghanistan Project,” Washington Post, August 14, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-hubris-afghanistan-humiliation/2021/08/14/47fb025a-fc67-11eb-9c0e-97e29906a970_story.html. Susannah George, “Afghanistan’s Military Collapse: Illicit Deals with the Taliban and Mass Desertions,” Washington Post, August 15, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/15/afghanistan-military-collapse-taliban/. David E. Sanger and Helene Cooper, “Taliban Sweep in Afghanistan Follows Years of US Miscalculations,” New York Times, August 14, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/14/us/politics/afghanistan-biden.html.  “An incoherent strategy doomed the 20-year US mission in Afghanistan, watchdog says as US withdraws,” CNN Politics, https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics/afghanistan-sigar-report/. "Afghans have broken 'shackles of slavery', says Pak PM Imran Khan after Taliban seize power," Times of India, August 16, 2021, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/taliban-has-broken-shackles-of-slavery-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-says/articleshow/85368058.cms. "Last Days in Vietnam: Who Goes? And Who Gets Left Behind?," PBS.org, April 28, 2015, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/lastdays/.

Afghanistan Debacle

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the Pentagon's new concept of "integrated deterrence" and try to divine its meaning and importance. They struggle to differentiate the concept from existing theories of deterrence and conclude that this phrase seems better suited to identifying a problem, rather than describing a solution. Chris encourages listeners to use the Defense Futures Simulator, Melanie applauds Belarusian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya for her courage, and Zack commends Lloyd Austin and his team for a successful first trip to Southeast Asia. Links: Oren Liebermann, "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin lays out vision of future in first major speech," CNN, May 1, 2021, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-lays-out-vision-of-future-in-first-major-speech/ar-BB1geVXr?ocid=se. Jim Garamone, "Official Talks DOD Policy Role in Chinese Pacing Threat, Integrated Deterrence," DOD News, June 2, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2641068/official-talks-dod-policy-role-in-chinese-pacing-threat-integrated-deterrence/. Lloyd Austin, "Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Participates in Fullerton Lecture Series in Singapore," U.S. Department of Defense, July 27, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2711025/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-participates-in-fullerton-lecture-serie/. Kurt Campbell, "The Changing China Debate," Chatham House, August 20, 2020, https://americas.chathamhouse.org/article/the-changing-china-debate/. Babie Latza Nadeau, "D.C. Mayor Muriel Boswer Snubs Her Mask Mandate Within First 24 Hours: Report," Daily Beast, August 1, 2021, https://www.thedailybeast.com/washington-dc-mayor-muriel-bowser-snubs-her-mask-mandate-within-first-24-hours-report-says. Emma Ashford and Erica Borghard, “A mom’s guide to coercion and deterrence,” New Atlanticist, Atlantic Council, March 16, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/a-moms-guide-to-coercion-and-deterrence/  Erica Borghard, Reality Check #3, “The Uses and Abuses of Deterrence,” New American Engagement Policy Brief, Atlantic Council, March 1, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/reality-check/reality-check-3-the-uses-and-abuses-of-deterrence/  War on the Rocks Defense Futures Simulator, https://www.defensefutures.net/ Ellen Knickmeyer, Lolita C, Baldor, and Matthew Lee, "'Welcome Home': Evacuation Flight Brings 200 Afghans to US," Military.com, July 30, 2021, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/07/30/welcome-home-evacuation-flight-brings-200-afghans-us.html.  Dustin Jones and Joe Hernandez, "Belarusian Sprinter Granted Polish Humanitarian Visa after Refusing Flight Home," NPR, August 3, 2021, https://www.npr.org/sections/tokyo-olympics-live-updates/2021/08/02/1023618626/a-sprinter-seeks-asylum-after-refusing-to-board-a-flight-back-to-belarus-from-to.  Brad Roberts, "On the Need for a Blue Theory of Victory," War on the Rocks, September 17, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2020/09/on-the-need-for-a-blue-theory-of-victory/.  

(Dis)Integrated Deterrence?

Special guest Chris Dougherty joins Chris and Melanie to discuss his recent War on the Rocks article, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy.” Dougherty notes that “a series of decisions (and indecisions) decades in the making have backed the Navy into a budget and force-planning corner,” and he describes the competing interests that drive different (and rarely complementary) force requirements. What decisions are most needed in order to get the Navy back on the right track? And what practical steps can be taken now and in the near future to close the gap between the many demands on the Navy, and the Navy’s capacity to meet those demands? Chris Preble is mad at people who spread malicious misinformation, Melanie laments the decline of human civilization as reflected in the Associated Press’ wrong-headed decision about the plural possessive, and Chris Dougherty gripes about people who gripe about the 2018 National Defense Strategy (but don’t know what they’re talking about). Shoutouts for the Cuban people, Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Wally Funk, and Gen. David Berger, commandant of the Marine Corps.   Links Christopher Dougherty, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy,” War on the Rocks, June 30, 2021  Andrew Restuccia and Sarah E. Needleman, “Biden’s Facebook Attack Followed Months of Frustration Inside White House,” Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2021  Colleen Sinclair, “10 ways to spot online misinformation,” The Conversation, March 27, 2020 (Updated September 17, 2020) 

Solving the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Samuel Charap's article, "Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in US-Russia Policy." Does the United States need to "gird itself for sustained competition" with Russia? What kind of leverage does the United States have in negotiating with Putin? How can the United States best work with allies who have very different interests and challenges when it comes to dealing with Russia? Chris gives a shout out to those who push this country to be better, Zack thanks the Republicans who bravely voted for a 1/6 committee, and Melanie praises some defenders of capitalism.    Links Samuel Charap, “Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in US Russia Policy,” War on the Rocks, May 14, 2021 David M. Herszenhorn, "Summit Exposes Stark Clash of EU Views on Russia," Politico, June 25, 2021 Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, "Russia Policy Puts Biden Under Pressure Across Europe," Foreign Policy, June 25, 2021 Timothy Frye, "The Perilous Bargains that Keep Putin in Power," Foreign Affairs, April 2021 Xi Jinping, "Speech at a Ceremony Marking the Centenary of the Communist Party of China," CGTN, July 01, 2021 Kristin Wilson and Clare Foran, "Only Two House Republicans Vote for the January 6 Select Committee," CNN, June 30, 2021 A. Wess Mitchell, "Biden Is Falling Into the Same Trap With Europe as Obama," Foreign Policy, June 30, 2021 “Slow Burn: The Road to the Iraq War,” Slate Podcast “Rep. Adam Kinzinger on the Moral Failture of Republicans and the Big Lie,” New York Times, July 05, 2021 

Solving the Russia Riddle

Chris, Melanie, and Zack dig into Marcus Willett’s “Lessons of the SolarWinds Hack” in the latest issue of Survival. They explore the distinction between cyber espionage and cyber defense (Was it an attack? Or a hack? Does it matter?), consider the implications of the offense-defense balance (Is 100 percent defense feasible?), and review possible global norms that can be put in place to limit the harm caused by malicious cyber actors. Melanie and Chris both have grievances toward members of Congress who are reluctant to revisit old Authorizations for Use of Military Force , and Zack gripes about Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s absurd op-ed in the Washington Post. And this week’s attafolks were all in the family: Zack welcomed a new niece named Marlowe; Melanie cheered her amazing older brother, David, a renowned physician and educator at the Mayo Clinic; and Chris gives a shout out to his daughter Katelyn —- and all members of the Class of 2021.     Marcus Willette, “Lessons of the SolarWinds Hack,” IISS, March 31, 2021   Trey Herr, et al “Broken Trust: Lessons from Sunburst,” Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Atlantic Council Stephen Miles, Twitter, June 21, 2021 Dmitri Alperovitchand Ian Ward, "How Should the U.S. Respond to the SolarWinds and Microsoft Exchange Hacks?," Lawfare, March 12, 2021 "Critical Infrastructure Sectors," S. Department of Homeland Security Imran Khan, "Pakistan is Ready to be a Partner for Peace in Afghanistan, but We Will Not Host US Bases," Washington Post, June 21, 2021 

Learning from SolarWinds

The Net Assessment team debates Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr's recent study on "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way" written for the Lowy Institute. Chris, Melanie, and Zack agree that the study is thought provoking and well argued, but disagree about whether it is ultimately convincing. Nonetheless, Porter and Mazarr have made a real contribution by helping to clarify the assumptions that underlie different approaches to the Taiwan. Chris gives a shout out to the Bridging the Gap effort, Melanie complains about John Cena and Bing, and Zack commends his former colleague Ari Tabatabai.   Links Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way," Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021 Irene Braam and Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, "Transatlantic Trends 2021," German Marshall Fund of the United States and Bertelsmann Foundation, June 2021 Oriana Skylar Mastro, "The Taiwan Temptation," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021 Charles L. Glaser, "Washington Is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China," Foreign Affairs, April 28, 2021 Ariane M. Tabatabai, No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran's National Security Strategy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020),  Dustin Walker, "Congress Should Rewrite the Pentagon's Pacific Deterrence Budget Request," Defense News, June 2, 2021 Joe Biden, “My Trip to Europe Is about America Rallying the World’s Democracies,” The Washington Post, June 5, 2021 Martin Pengelly, “Biden Trumpets Democracy in Post Op-ed – As Threats Spread at Home,” The Guardian, June 6, 2021 Bridging the Gap “Future Foreign Policy: Global Perceptions of the United States, Featuring Caroline Gray,” June 16, 2021, Noon EDT Tom Karako, “Sing, Missile Muse, of Gods and Heroes: America’s Most Fearsome Weapons Need Better Names,” War on the Rocks, June 7, 2021 Jill Disis, “‘F9’ Star John Cena Says He Loves China After Taiwan Remark Stokes Anger,” CNN, May 25, 2021 Elizabeth Braw, “Spying on Allies is Normal. Also Smart,” Politico EU, June 4, 2021. Syaru Shirley Lin, “It’s Not Just China: Population, Power Generation, Political Polarization, and Parochialism are Also Long-Term Threats to Taiwan’s Success and Survival,” PRC Leader, June 1, 2021 “China’s Growing Military Confidence Puts Taiwan at Risk,” Economist, May 1, 2021 Blake Herzinger, “US Ditching Taiwan Commitments is a Dead-End Idea,” Foreign Policy, May 3, 2021 Paul Mozur, “Microsoft’s Bing Briefly Blocked ‘Tank Man’ on Anniversary of Tiananmen Anniversary,” New York Times, June 5, 2021 

Taiwan: Middle Path or Muddled Strategy?

Hosts Melanie Marlowe, Bryan McGrath, and Christopher Preble debate their way through some of the toughest and most contentious topics related to war, international relations, and strategy. This podcast is brought to you by War on the Rocks.

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