Iran’s proxy network in Iraq has escalated rocket attacks, stood up at least four new Shi’a militia groups, and diversified its targets and methods of attack. These efforts aim to wear down US forces and eventually compel their withdrawal from Iraq. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Security Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Iraq Research Assistant Katherine Lawlor discuss Iran’s ongoing campaign to shape Iraq into a state that serves Iran’s geopolitical interests.

Overwatch: Crisis Brief

Iraq Crisis Brief: Iranian Proxies Expand Efforts to Oust US Forces from Iraq

 ISW Middle East Portfolio Manager Nicholas Heras joins Iraq Team Analysts Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace to discuss the ongoing escalation of violence by Iranian proxy groups. Even after the assassinations of Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, these proxy groups have maintained pressure on US forces in Iraq by cooperating and coordinating with each other.

Iraq Crisis Brief: Iran's Continued Escalation in Iraq

The United States killed Iranian IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and several senior proxy militia officials in a Baghdad drone strike on 03 JAN. Soleimani was a designated terrorist and the second most powerful person in Iran. This strike follows an Iranian proxy militia attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, the killing of an American contractor by Iranian proxy militias, and a months-long escalation in Iranian rocket attacks on U.S. interests in Iraq and across the Middle East. Iran experts Nicholas Carl and Kyra Rauschenbach of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project and Iraq experts Brandon Wallace and Katherine Lawlor of the Institute for the Study of War brief what you need to know to make sense of the coming news cycle.

Iraq Crisis Brief: What You Need to Know Following the Death of Iranian IRGC Quds Force Commander Soleimani

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mehdi resigned on November 29 following a renewed outbreak of violence against protesters and the withdrawal of support by Shi'a religious leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Iraq's political elites have scrambled to find a replacement to Mehdi, who was himself a compromise candidate, and have so far failed to achieve consensus on either a new prime minister or any meaningful concessions to the protesters. Meanwhile, Iran's proxies in Iraq continue to attack three groups - protesters, nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his supporters, and the U.S.-led Coalition - in order to drive political action in Iran's favor. ISW's Iraq experts Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace offer their take on the political stagnation, proxy conflicts, and increased violence they expect to see moving into the new year. 

Iraq Crisis Brief: Proxy Violence and Political Stagnation Follow the Resignation of Iraq's Prime Minister

U.S. President Donald Trump met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Turkey's ongoing offensive in Northeastern Syria on November 13th. The meeting occurred as fighting continues in Eastern Syria. ISW Syria expert John Dunford discusses the events in Syria and abroad that shaped the two presidents' conversation and its subsequent outcome. 

Syria Crisis Brief: Outcome of Trump-Erdogan Meeting Amidst Continued Fighting in Syria

Protests in Iraq have continued to grow after resuming on October 25th. Iranian proxy leader Hadi al Ameri reversed his position on the ousting of the Iraqi prime minister under the direction the Iranian IRGC Quds Force commander. This direct intervention by Iran signals the potential for a more violent Iranian crackdown against Iraqi protesters. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses three possible trajectories for Iraq's future. *Originally published November 7, 2019. 

Iraq Crisis Brief: Iraqi Protests Grow After Iran Intervenes to Prevent the Prime Minister's Ouster

The deadline to implement the first phase of the Russo-Turkish deal for Northeast Syria passed without significant progress after Kurdish forces refused to withdraw from the border. Meanwhile, a new contingent of U.S. forces deployed to southeast Syria to secure oil fields. U.S. forces also patrolled a Kurdish area, indicating a continued relationship with Kurdish forces. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford explain these details and discuss what to expect next. *Originally published November 1, 2019. 

Syria Crisis Brief: Russo-Turkish Agreement in Eastern Syria Breaks Down as U.S. Forces Return

Rumors of an imminent resignation of the Iraqi prime minister emerges after nationalist Shi'a cleric Muqtada al Sadr made a dramatic return to Iraq and joined escalating protests in Najaf. He and Iranian proxy leader Hadi Al Ameri each released statements pledging to hold a no-confidence vote against the prime minister in the Iraqi parliament. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses the political stakes and possibilities. *Originally published October 29, 2019. 

Iraq Crisis Brief: The Ouster of Iraq's Prime Minister Looks Imminent

Mass protests resumed in Baghdad and across the Shi'a-majority provinces in southern Iraq despite the Iraqi government's attempts to de-escalate through concessions and limited reforms. Protesters torched political offices and media headquarters in multiple provinces, chanting slogans against both the Iraqi government and Iran's proxies in Iraq. One Iranian proxy militia reportedly used live ammunition against protesters. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Iraq expert Samantha Leathley discuss Friday's escalation and what could follow. *Originally published October 25, 2019. 

Iraq Crisis Brief: Mass Protests Resume in Iraq

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met to coordinate military movements in Northern Syria. The two presidents reached an initial agreement intended to push Kurdish forces away from the Turkey-Syria border region over the coming days. ISW Syria expert John Dunford discusses what is known about the new deal and how it will effect Turkish and Russian actions in Syria moving forward. *Originally published October 23, 2019. 

Syria Crisis Brief: Significance of the Turkey-Russia Meeting on Syria

Iraq's government has not addressed the conditions that prompted street protests in early October 2019. Baghdad will also struggle to hold accountable the forces that engaged in a violent crackdown on protesters given Iran's role in Iraq. The stage now appears set for a new phase of unrest. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and ISW Iraq analyst Samantha Leathley discuss the potential for renewed protests this week at a time when some U.S. forces are shifting from Syria to Iraq. *Originally published October 21, 2019. 

Iraq Crisis Brief: A New Phase of Unrest in Iraq?

The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria and subsequent Turkish advances are creating a new opening for Russia and its partners. Russian forces have taken over areas vacated by the U.S. as the Kremlin positions itself to reshape Syria's future. ISW Research analyst Mason Clark joins ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella to discuss the latest Russian maneuvers and how they advance Vladimir Putin's broader ambitions in Syria. *Originally published October 16, 2019. 

Syria Crisis Brief: Russia Exploits U.S. Withdrawal from Syria

The situation on the ground is rapidly evolving as the Turkish offensive advances into Syria. ISIS is taking advantage of the conditions of chaos to resurge and threaten to reverse progress made by the Anti-ISIS Coalition. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, Syria expert John Dunford, and Counterterrorism expert Brandon Wallace discuss how recent developments may threaten U.S. forces as they withdraw and what ISW is watching heading into the week. *Originally published October 15, 2019.   

Syria Crisis Brief: Continued Chaos as the Turkish Offensive Advances into Syria

Turkey has initiated a military operation into a part of Northern Syria controlled by Syrian Kurdish-led forces. The operation follows a U.S. decision to withdrawal from the immediate area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - the primary Syria-based U.S. partner in the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). As Turkish forces move across the border and the SDF responds, ISW's Syria expert John Dunford explained the context, key dynamics shaping the battle, and the effects on the counter-ISIS campaign. *Originally published October 9, 2019. 

Syria Crisis Brief: Turkey Kicks Off Operation in Syria

Iran signaled it may send Iranian security forces to Iraq, ostensibly to secure the upcoming Arbae'en pilgrimage. But Iran may alternatively be preparing these Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) to help suppress Iraqi protests. The LEF previously helped the Bashar al Assad regime attempt to suppress the Syrian rebellion as early as 2011. The Iranian Regime has used it more recently to quell dementing protests. The unit may assist Iran's proxies in Iraq to do the same. Nicholas Carl, an Iran expert at the Critical Threats Project, discusses this possibility and its implications with ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella. *Originally published October 8, 2019. 

Iraq Crisis Brief: The Risk of an Iranian Military Response in Iraq

Crisis Brief is a new special edition of ISW's Overwatch podcast series intended to provide timely updates on unfolding crises with implications for U.S. national security.

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Overwatch: Crisis Brief

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