In this last episode of our mini-series on strategy, Security and Defence editor Daniel Fiott and Florence Gaub discuss strategy and strategic foresight: how are they different, how do they complement each other, and how are both applied to defence matters?

What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

What is strategic foresight?

In the second episode of our mini-series on strategy, Florence Gaub has two guests: the pen-holder of the Strategic Compass, Jean-Pierre van Aubel, and Daniel Fiott, the Security and Defence editor of the EUISS. They discuss whether the Strategic Compass is, or is not, a strategy, how it is being put together, and why it is important for Europe.

What is the Strategic Compass?

In this first episode of our mini-series on strategy, EUISS director Gustav Lindstrom explains to Florence Gaub what strategy actually is (and what it is not), how the EU has become more and more strategic in its thinking and actions, and what this all means for the next phase in its strategic trajectory.

What is strategy?

In this episode, Florence Gaub is the guest on her own show and explains to Giovanni Faleg why expectations of a rapid democratisation in the Arab world in 2011 were misplaced. She shows that a profound misunderstanding of democracy and transition towards it led to exaggerated expectations which themselves paved the way for some policy errors. What should we do differently next time?

Why… did we expect democracy in the Arab world?

In this episode, Alice Ekman explains to Florence Gaub why people commonly thought that China was going to become a democracy, or alternatively implode economically. We look at why wishful thinking, but also China’s unique historical path, paved the way for surprise in the 2010s. What would we have done differently if we had seen this more clearly – and is there something else we are not seeing?

Why… did we not see the rise of China coming?

In this new mini-series we look at past expectations that turned out to be untrue and try to learn from past mistakes. In our first episode, Stanislav Secrieru and Florence Gaub look at Russia: although people expected the country to be poor and weak, the 2010s witnessed Russia’s geopolitical resurgence. Why did we not see this coming, what can we learn from this – and what else are we doing wrong?

Why… did we underestimate Russia’s ambitions?

In this last episode of the Russia miniseries, Florence Gaub discusses with Andrew Wilson (ECFR) the future trajectory of a Belarus very much under the influence of Russia. How far might Russia go - and how much wiggle room is there for Belarus?

What if...Russia expands its influence in Belarus?

In this episode, Janis Kluge (SWP) takes Florence Gaub to a future where Russia has reformed its economy with spectacular success. What would have to happen for this to come true, what would it mean - and what stands in the way of this being achievable?

What if...Russia becomes 'the Singapore of steel'?

In this episode, Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru explain to Florence Gaub why there is a danger that Russia may become divided into four Russias: differentiated in economic but also geographic terms - and what this means for the future.

What if...Russian society drifts apart?

While technology might be just the sum of science and industry, for China it is a pillar of its geopolitical ambition. In this last episode of our miniseries on China, Alice Ekman and Florence Gaub dig deeper into the role of technology in China’s pursuit of power, and take stock of where we are at – and where we are going.

What if…China rode the techno-ticket to power?

As China gains more and more influence on the global stage, the big question is what it intends to achieve with this new status. In this second episode of our miniseries on China, Alice Ekman and Florence Gaub discuss how China has moved from quietist diplomacy to expansive geopolitical ambition, and what this could mean for the rest of the world.

What if…China wants to be a superpower?

China not only has a vision for a different world order, it also has a vision for deploying different diplomatic practices. In this first episode of our mini-series on China, EUISS Senior Analyst Alice Ekman discusses the distinctive methods of Chinese diplomacy with Deputy Director Florence Gaub, explains why these are a challenge for the EU, and how it should respond.

What if…China’s diplomacy is more predictable than we think?

The pandemic has hit the United States harder than any other country; and Americans are scheduled to go to the polls in November. Will the coronavirus lead to a postponement of the elections? And in that case what will happen? Will the virus swing the election in favour of either candidate? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Simona Soare discusses this and more with Florence Gaub in this last instalment of the Covid-19 podcast season.

What if...Covid-19 impacted the US presidential elections?

Projections show a possible death toll of more than 3 million for Africa, but what if these calculations turn out to be wrong? EUISS Senior Analyst Giovanni Faleg discusses with Florence Gaub whether we can expect lower fatality rates, what this could mean for the continent, and what needs to be done urgently.

What if...Africa was immune to Covid-19?

Currently, 43 states in the world are experiencing ongoing conflicts. What impact will the Covid-19 pandemic have on these conflicts? Will they escalate, or is there perhaps an opportunity for peace? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Katariina Mustasilta discusses with Florence Gaub how conflict research sheds light on the link between discontent and crisis.

What if...Covid-19 leads to an escalation of conflicts?

The EUISS' ‘What if’ podcast is a foreign policy foresight conversation: it looks at fictional scenarios that could happen between now and the end of 2021, discussing questions like: under what circumstances could this come about? What would it mean? Can we prevent it, or how would we have to respond to it? And lastly: how likely is it?

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What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

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